UCF economist warns about Iran war uncertainty affecting Florida’s economy

The “biggest cloud of uncertainty” facing Florida’s economy is the Iran war, as some prices are already rising and affecting consumers, a University of Central Florida economist warned.

“What happens with the Iran conflict is going to sort of shift the path that we’re on, for better or for worse,” said Sean Snaith, the Director of the Institute for Economic Forecasting, as he gave an economic update during Tuesday’s Orange County Commission meeting.

Snaith said consumers are affected first by rising prices in transportation-related industries. He pointed to airlines raising baggage fees or delivery companies adding fuel charges for shipping packages.

“People are still trying to recover from that episode of inflation and now here we go again with some costs of living being impacted by the conflict here with Iran,” Snaith said. “The impact we’ve seen immediately (is) certainly at the gas pumps. We’ve seen it in the price of oil, price of natural gas. We’re starting to see it work its way through the economy, these higher prices.”

Snaith dug into the latest figures for Florida and the Orlando area.

Orlando’s unemployment rate in 2026 posted at 4.2%, similar to the statewide rate of 4.3%. Even though the unemployment rate remains slow historically, the growth in new jobs remains sluggish, Snaith said.

“There’s not really hiring; there’s not really firing,” Snaith said. “It’s kind of suspended animation in the labor market.”

For housing prices in Orange County, the median sale price in February 2026 was $491,000, according to his presentation. Closed sales were down 753, compared to 828 in February 2025.

“Here in Orange County, it’s still a seller’s market,” Snaith said.

Statewide, the median house sales price was $412,000 with closed sales up, at 18,379 in February 2026 compared to 17,697 in February 2025.

“Prices have flattened out,” Snaith said. “Could they come down? Certainly. Would I anticipate the kind of drop that we saw in 2009, 2010? I think that’s highly unlikely just because of the difference in the financing environment, but supply and demand will determine affordability is out of the reach of many people.”