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U.S. shale oil boom transforms from money treadmill into cash cow, Chevron president says

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For years Big Oil producers chased U.S. shale profits with big spending hikes while seeking something even more elusive than the next big gusher: steady, sustained profitability. Now Chevron, long the industry’s No. 2 player, believes it hit upon a formula for just that.

Leaning on West Texas’ booming Permian Basin, Chevron says its combination of sheer scale and technology allows it to hop off the spending treadmill and finally pump the shale business for healthy profitability without the constant cry for “Drill, baby, drill.” While Exxon Mobil may remain larger, Chevron is aiming for No. 1 in the leery eyes of a Wall Street that previously soured on the oil sector.

The closing of its $53 billion megadeal to acquire Hess in July allows Chevron to focus internationally on new growth, especially its acquired position offshore Guyana—arguably the largest oil discovery of the century—while using the U.S. and its massive footprint in the Permian to reap the needed influx of free cash flow.

The Hess deal also includes a massive footprint in North Dakota’s Bakken Shale oil play, adding to Chevron’s heavy reliance on oil and gas production in onshore U.S. shale—revolutionized 20 years ago through enhanced horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing (fracking) techniques.

After growing the U.S. onshore shale position to 40% of its global oil and gas production portfolio—nearly 50% including the Gulf of Mexico—through big capital spends and a five-year buying spree, Chevron now aims to plateau its U.S. output and turn it into a cash machine for churning out dividend hikes, said Bruce Niemeyer, Chevron’s new president of shale and tight, meaning he oversees onshore American oil and gas.

“There’s been a period of time in shale and tight in this industry where a lot of the attention was on growth—as much growth that you could have,” Niemeyer told Fortune. “The pivot for us is from growth, which is where the attention was for the last few years, to one of cash flow generation. We are adjusting activity to manage it on a plateau and focus on becoming extremely efficient in what we do.

“Given the portfolio we have, we’ll be able to do that out to the end of the next decade,” he added.

Industry analysts are largely praising the “pivot.”

“That’s what we’ve been looking for a decade from some of these companies,” said RBC Capital energy analyst Biraj Borkhataria, noting that Chevron can cut shale spending by about $1.5 billion annually and keep production volumes relatively even.

Another element is a global Big Oil giant not wanting to place too much of its reliance on any one country, even if it’s the U.S. “Chevron has been very clear about shale production as a percentage of the portfolio, and wanting to put some kind of limit on that,” Borkhataria told Fortune.

Permian powerhouse

The Permian Basin dominates the U.S. oil industry, producing almost half of the nation’s roughly 13.4 million barrels of crude oil daily.

And Chevron is no exception, having just hit its milestone goal in the Permian of 1 million barrels of oil equivalent daily, including natural gas. That makes Chevron the region’s second-largest net producer after rival Exxon.

The so-called treadmill effect in the Permian is based on the thesis that shale wells are drilled quickly for big initial influxes of oil that start to deplete relatively rapidly, so the constant spending and drilling must continue to keep volumes up.

Chevron largely solved that conundrum with the combination of scale, increased efficiencies, and its new slowdown, allowing for more oil and gas to be churned out with fewer drilling rigs and fracking crews—drilling ever-longer subsurface wells and more wells per location with each rig, while fracking three wells simultaneously, Niemeyer said.

Just this year, Chevron shrunk its Permian activity from 13 active drilling rigs to nine with more declines expected, he said.

Chevron’s unique legacy Permian position dates to the 19th century when the Texas Pacific Railway tried and failed to build a railroad from Texas to California. It transformed into the Texas Pacific Land Trust to manage the railroad’s roughly 3.5 million Texas acres.

The oil boom struck West Texas in the 1920s and Texas Pacific spun off an oil company that was eventually acquired by Texaco in 1962. Chevron bought Texas in 2001 for $36 billion at a time when the Permian position was considered a depleted afterthought before the shale revolution unlocked reservoirs previously considered uneconomic.

“There was a time in our company’s history where there wasn’t a lot of attention to it because the Permian had peaked and was on this long and slow decline,” Niemeyer said. “But we made a deliberate decision to hold it. We have a history of big fields getting bigger.”

What’s unusual about Chevron’s Permian position because of the legacy history is Chevron only operates a small majority of its footprint. Instead, the rest is owned through longstanding minerals rights and joint venture partnerships, meaning that some Permian revenues come in without any capital spending.

“The terms of it are unlike anything that you could find on the market today, which makes the portfolio that we have extremely unique in that regard,” Niemeyer said. “It might be hard to reassemble that at any price today under the terms that we have it. It’s a tremendous advantage.”

That equates to Chevron owning a partial stake in one of every five Permian wells, he said.

To compare apples and oranges, Exxon owns and controls the vast majority of its industry-leading Permian position, and is operating a whopping 35 drilling rigs there. Exxon became by far the top Permian player last year when it bought Pioneer Natural Resources for $60 billion. So, Exxon is going to keep growing and not think about plateauing—arguing it generates big profits because of its huge footprint to drill ever-longer, more efficient wells.

“I think Chevron is managing the Permian resource probably the way that they believe they could generate the highest returns from those assets,” said TD Cowen energy analyst Jason Gabelman. “Exxon just did this acquisition and a lot of what they acquired was not developed, so it makes sense that they’re growing while Chevron is kind of stabilizing.”

And stabilizing makes sense when oil prices are weaker now and more global oil supplies aren’t needed, Borkhataria said.

“One of them is very clearly responding to what they think the market dynamics are, which is Chevron,” he said. “Does the market need me to grow significantly 10% to 15% a year? Probably not. Therefore, why do it?”

What’s next?

Chevron and Exxon are continuing embracing technology and the AI boom to become more cost efficient, leaning more towards computing power and brains than brawn.

“Up to this point in shale and tight, there’s been a lot of brute force,” Niemeyer said, as companies relied on drilling ever-longer wells and fracking ever-more-intensely. “Where we’re headed next is we’re going to get more out of the wells, but it’s going to require a different kind of insight and the ability to connect things together, and AI is going to be a big part of that.”

Outside of the Permian, Chevron and Exxon plan to focus much of their growth through oil offshore Guyana, which Exxon discovered a decade ago, now that Chevron bought into the partnership via Hess—much to Exxon’s chagrin and, after legal arbitration, eventual acceptance.

For Chevron, it also must decide where to divest and where else to grow. Some of those decisions could come at its investor day in November.

Late last year, Chevron sold its Canadian oil and gas assets in Alberta for $6.5 billion, representing roughly half of the goal to divest $10 billion to $15 billion by 2028.

While Chevron is counting the Bakken as an important new piece gained, analysts question whether Chevron might be better off selling there. It’s more mature and may struggle to compete with the Permian. Chevron also holds a 30% stake in the publicly traded Hess Midstream pipeline business in the Bakken.

Chevron can either acquire the rest of Hess Midstream to increase Bakken profitability, hold steady, or sell it.

“We’ll have to see where the Bakken goes. The asset that had everybody’s attention was Guyana, and that’s clearly a world-class asset, and we’ll have to see how things proceed in the Bakken,” Niemeyer said. “We’re really excited about the opportunity to be there and connect it with our other assets in the shale and tight business.”

Otherwise, Chevron must look to grow organically through ramped-up international exploration in Africa, South America, the Eastern Mediterranean, or potentially elsewhere, analysts said. The Permian’s success had allowed Chevron to cut back on global exploration spending in recent years, part of a broader industry trend.

“I think what we’ll see is a sort of return to exploration, which is a little less American and taking a bit of risk in different regions globally,” Borkhataria said.



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Procurement execs often don’t understand the value of good design, experts say

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Behind every intricately designed hotel or restaurant is a symbiotic collaboration between designer and maker.

But in reality, firms want to build more with less—and even though visions are created by designers, they don’t always get to see them to fruition. Instead, intermediaries may be placed in charge of procurements and overseeing the financial costs of executing designs.

“The process is not often as linear as we [designers] would like it to be, and at times we even get slightly cut out, and something comes out on the other side that wasn’t really what we were expecting,” said Tina Norden, a partner and principal at design firm Conran and Partners, at the Fortune Brainstorm Design forum in Macau on Dec. 2.

“To have a better quality product, communication is very much needed,” added Daisuke Hironaka, the CEO of Stellar Works, a furniture company based in Shanghai. 

Yet those tasked with procurement are often “money people” who may not value good design—instead forsaking it to cut costs. More education on the business value of quality design is needed, Norden argued.

When one builds something, she said, there are both capital investment and a lifecycle cost. “If you’re spending a bit more money on good quality furniture, flooring, whatever it might be, arguably, it should last a lot longer, and so it’s much better value.”

Investing in well-designed products is also better for the environment, Norden added, as they don’t have to be replaced as quickly.

Attempts to cut costs may also backfire in the long run, said Hironaka, as business owners may have to foot higher maintenance bills if products are of poor design and make.

AI in interior and furniture design

Though designers have largely been slow adopters of AI, some luminaries like Daisuke are attempting to integrate it into their team’s workflow.

AI can help accelerate the process of designing bespoke furniture, Daisuke explained, especially for large-scale projects like hotels. 

A team may take a month to 45 days to create drawings for 200 pieces of custom-made furniture, the designer said, but AI can speed up this process. “We designed a lot in the past, and if AI can use these archives, study [them] and help to do the engineering, that makes it more helpful for designers.” 

Yet designers can rest easy as AI won’t ever be able to replace the human touch they bring, Norden said. 

“There is something about the human touch, and about understanding how we like to use our spaces, how we enjoy space, how we perceive spaces, that will always be there—but AI should be something that can assist us [in] getting to that point quicker.”

She added that creatives can instead view AI as a tool for tasks that are time-consuming but “don’t need ultimate creativity,” like researching and three-dimensionalizing designs.

“As designers, we like to procrastinate and think about things for a very long time to get them just right, [but] we can get some help in doing things faster.”



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Binance has been proudly nomadic for years. A new announcement suggests it’s chosen an HQ

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For years, Binance has dodged questions about where it plans to establish a corporate headquarters. On Monday, the world’s largest crypto exchange made an announcement that indicates it has chosen a location: Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates.

In its announcement, Binance reported that it has secured three global financial licenses within Abu Dhabi Global Market, a special economic zone inside the Emirati city. The licenses regulate three different prongs of the exchange’s business: its exchange, clearinghouse, and broker dealer services. The three regulated entities are named Nest Exchange Limited, Nest Clearing and Custody Limited, and Nest Trading Limited, respectively.

Richard Teng, the co-CEO of Binance, declined to say whether Abu Dhabi is now Binance’s global headquarters. “But for all intents and purposes, if you look at the regulatory sphere, I think the global regulators are more concerned of where we are regulated on a global basis,” he said, adding that Abu Dhabi Global Market is where his crypto exchange’s “global platform” will be governed.

A company spokesperson declined to add more to Teng’s comments, but did not deny Fortune’s assertion that Binance appears to have chosen Abu Dhabai as its headquarters.

Corporate governance

The Abu Dhabi announcement suggests that Binance, which has for years taken pride in branding itself as a company with no fixed location, is bowing to the practical considerations that go with being a major financial firm—and the corporate governance obligations that entails.

When Changpeng Zhao, the cofounder and former CEO of Binance, launched the company in 2017, he initially established the exchange in Hong Kong. But, weeks after he registered Binance in the city, China banned cryptocurrency trading, and Zhao moved his nascent trading platform. Binance has since been itinerant. “Wherever I sit is going to be the Binance office,” Zhao said in 2020.

The location of a company’s headquarters impacts its tax obligations and what regulations it needs to follow. In 2023, after Binance reached a landmark $4.3 billion settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice, Zhao stepped down as CEO and pleaded guilty to failing to implement an effective anti-money laundering program.

Teng took over and promised to implement the corporate structures—like a board of directors—that are the norm for companies of Binance’s size. Teng, who now shares the CEO role with the newly appointed Yi He, oversaw the appointment of Binance’s first board in April 2024. And he’s repeatedly telegraphed that his crypto exchange is focused on regulatory compliance.

Binance already has a strong footprint in the Emirates. It has a crypto license in Dubai, received a $2 billion investment from an Emirati venture fund in March, and, that same month, said it employed 1,000 employees in the country. 



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Leaders in Congress outperform rank-and-file lawmakers on stock trades by up to 47% a year

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Stocks held by members of Congress have been beating the S&P 500 lately, but there’s a subset of lawmakers who crush their peers: leadership.

According to a recent working paper for the National Bureau of Economic Research, congressional leaders outperform back benchers by up to 47% a year.

Shang-Jin Wei from Columbia University and Columbia Business School along with Yifan Zhou from Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University looked at lawmakers who ascended to leadership posts, such as Speaker of the House as well as House and Senate floor leaders, whips, and conference/caucus chairs.

Between 1995 and 2021, there were 20 such leaders who made stock trades before and after rising to their posts. Wei and Zhou observed that lawmakers underperformed benchmarks before becoming leaders, then everything suddenly changed.

“Importantly, whilst we observe a huge improvement in leaders’ trading performance as they ascend to leadership roles, the matched ‘regular’ members’ stock trading performance does not improve much,” they wrote.

Leadership’s stock market edge stems in part from their ability to set the regulatory or legislation agenda, such as deciding if and when a particular bill will be put to a vote. Setting the agenda also gives leaders advanced knowledge of when certain actions will take place.

In fact, Wei and Zhou found that leaders demonstrate much better returns on stock trades that are made when their party controls their chamber.

In addition, being a leader also increases access to non-public information. The researchers said that while companies are reluctant to share such insider knowledge, they may prioritize revealing it to leaders over rank-and-file lawmakers.

Leaders earn higher returns on companies that contribute to their campaigns or are headquartered in their states, which Wei and Zhou said could be attributable to “privileged access to firm-specific information.”

The upper echelon also influences how other members of Congress vote, and the paper found that a leader’s party is much more likely to vote for bills that help firms whose stocks the leader held, or vote against bills that harmed them. And stocks owned by leadership tend to see increases in federal contract awards, especially sole-source contracts, over the following one to two years.

“These results suggest that congressional leaders may not only trade on privileged knowledge, but also shape policy outcomes to enrich themselves,” Wei and Zhou wrote.

Stock trades by congressional leaders are even predictive, forecasting higher occurrences of positive or negative corporate news over the following year, they added. In particular, stock sales predict the number of hearings and regulatory actions over the coming year, though purchases don’t.

Investors have long suspected that Washington has a special advantage on Wall Street. That’s given rise to more ETFs with political themes, including funds that track portfolios belonging to Democrats and Republicans in Congress.

And Paul Pelosi, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband, even has a cult following among some investors who mimic his stock moves.

Congress has tried to crack down on members’ stock holdings. The STOCK Act of 2012 requires more timely disclosures, but some lawmakers want to ban trading completely.

A bipartisan group of House members is pushing legislation that would prohibit members of Congress, their spouses, dependent children, and trustees from trading individual stocks, commodities, or futures.

And this past week, a discharge petition was put forth that would force a vote in the House if it gets enough signatures.

“If leadership wants to put forward a bill that would actually do that and end the corruption, we’re all for it,” said Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, R-Fla., on social media on Tuesday. “But we’re tired of the partisan games. This is the most bipartisan bipartisan thing in U.S. history, and it’s time that the House of Representatives listens to the American people.”



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