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U.S. cities located in states won by Donald Trump would be most hurt by Canadian tariffs, an analysis finds

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Red states could pay the highest price for Donald Trump’s tariff plans.

The U.S. cities most vulnerable to a trade war with Canada turn out to largely be in the states that helped return Donald Trump to the White House — a sign of the possible political risk he’s taking with his tariff plans.

A new analysis released Thursday by the Canadian Chamber of Commerce detailed the areas most dependent on exports to Canada, with San Antonio and Detroit topping the list of 41 U.S. metro areas. The findings show that the United States’ 25% tariffs on Canada and Canada’s retaliations could inflict meaningful damage in key states for U.S. politics.

The analysis was conducted before the Republican President announced Wednesday that he was placing additional 25% tariffs on imported autos and parts starting on April 3.

“The consequences of today’s escalation in this destructive tariff war will not be contained to Canada, as much as the U.S. administration would like to pretend,” said Candace Laing, President and CEO of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce. “Throwing away tens of thousands of jobs on both sides of the border will mean giving up North America’s auto leadership role, instead encouraging companies to build and hire anywhere else but here. This tax hike puts plants and workers at risk for generations, if not forever.”

Nearly half of what San Antonio exports, with its aerospace, auto and energy sectors, goes to Canada. About 40% of what the auto-driven Detroit area exports also goes to Canada. Trump’s wins in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were crucial for his overall victory in November’s presidential election — and Milwaukee and Pittsburgh also rank in the top 10 for exposure to a trade war with Canada.

Other cities most dependent on exports to Canada include Kansas City, Missouri; Louisville, Kentucky; Nashville, Tennessee; Columbus, Ohio; Chicago; and Cleveland. All of those states aside from Illinois backed Trump in the last election.

Trump has placed 25% tariffs on many goods from Mexico and Canada, with a lower 10% tax on energy products from Canada. Some of those tariffs have been suspended or delayed, though they’re set to fully hit in April.

Canadian leaders have warned that the United States would suffer in the form of higher prices, fewer jobs and slower growth because of the trade war. But an analysis by the Brookings Institution found that the economic pain would be more severe in Mexico and Canada because those countries are more reliant on the United States in terms of trade.

Trump’s stated reason for the tariffs is to stop illegal immigration and drug smuggling, though he’s also said that he dislikes the trade deficit with both countries and has taunted Canada by suggesting that it could become the 51st U.S. state.

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Republished with permission from The Associated Press.


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Michelle Salzman to offer taxation amendment on hemp as House irons out policy details on caps

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Rep. Michelle Salzman may be giving Florida a clearer picture of what hemp legislation could pass out of the Legislature this year.

The Pensacola Republican is leading the effort to craft House legislation and will likely unroll an amendment on Monday to legislation that could impose taxes on THC-infused drinks and other products.

The bill (HB 7029) would tax hemp goods similar to cigarettes and wines.

“I think we’re just going to give it a syntax on the sales so when you buy that, when you purchase a product, it’ll be a 20% markup or whatever instead of collecting the taxes in the forefront,” Salzman said. “We’re considering ways to change the collection model so we don’t have to worry about people circumventing paying the 20% of wholesale, or whatever it is for that particular product.”

An amendment should have details ready before the legislation is presented to the House Budget Committee on Tuesday.

Representatives on April 1 advanced two pieces of legislation out of the House Housing, Agriculture & Tourism Subcommittee with bipartisan support, with neither bill receiving a dissenting vote. Salzman hopes to keep the House unified around legislation and has reached out for input from all 120 members as the bill works its way through The Process.

She held a lengthy meeting with House Commerce Committee staff on a separate policy bill (HB 7027) that would mandate the testing of consumable and hemp products to ensure they meet specific safety standards.

As written now, the legislation would block the sale of the products at any businesses where those under 21 can enter. But before the bill lands in front of the Commerce Committee, Salzman expects to have an amendment that would ensure at least beverages infused with THC from hemp can remain on gas station and convenience store shelves. With the federal government allowing products to exist and a major sector already formed around hemp beverages, she said House legislation likely won’t try to stop the sale of drink products entirely in places where they are available now.

“I just can’t see unwinding that machine, and in the third largest economy In America,” Salzman said. “So we just have to be cognizant of the businesses as well as the will of Floridians, while keeping the safety of the citizens and protecting kids as our number one priority.”

The bill sets out several regulations on packaging, Salzman’s top priority. The bill said hemp consumables cannot be marketed with colorful labeling or cartoon mascots that would attract children’s interest. After consulting with business interests, she does say that the legislation will likely allow logos that cover no more than 20% of packaging, something she called a “huge gift” to the industry.

The Senate has already passed hemp legislation as a single bill (SB 438) that would significantly restrict signage promoting products outside the business premises. The House hasn’t focused as rigidly on that.

“We are not discussing the signage outside. We’re not discussing the signage inside,” Salzman said. “We’re only discussing the packaging and the caps and the distribution.”

But she doesn’t want to see hemp-infused gummies or brownies that children could mistake for treats and consume as such. She knows that remains controversial among retailers and manufacturers of the products, but it’s one area Salzman has been unwilling to budge.

“The moment they take that package out of the store, it is one color period, with a description, with the warnings, with all of the stuff so it doesn’t look exciting,” Salzman said. “No kid is going to go, ‘Oh, that looks like I want to do that today.’ They would have to know what it was, and they would have to intentionally be doing the drug. And that is the whole purpose of the packaging requirements to be that way.

“That’s the hardest pill for a lot of these people to swallow. But every single one of them have said, ‘We’ll make it work.’”

That legislation sets out laboratory standards and restricts the sale of THC products with a total delta-9 THC concentration greater than 0.3%. Salzman continues to examine the practicality of making the goods with manufacturers but remains concerned about how caps translate into products.

“The way that we have it written in the bill currently, it tells them how much additives they can have, and that’s really to prevent somebody from creating 100-milligram brownie that’s only a quarter of an inch thick, and then say that it’s got 50 doses in there,” she said. “So the weight limit as it pertains to THC content is critical, but the way it’s written, there are several manufacturers that are concerned with being able to sell their product with that.”

She offers an example of whether the same caps were applied to a corn chip and whether manufacturers could guarantee that the same balance in each chip meets the statutory limits in THC.

She expects conversations over the coming weeks with House leadership on how to translate the cap discussions into written policy and expects there to be further discussion with the Senate. She ultimately expects any disagreements on hemp to end up in conference, a rarity for policy as opposed to appropriations in the Legislature.

“You can conference on policy just like you conference on budget,” she said. “You just haven’t seen it in 20 years.”

Then there’s concern about where it goes once the Legislature finishes its debate. Last year, Gov. Ron DeSantis vetoed a regulation framework on hemp. But that’s why Salzman wants so much input now and why she pushed for a Committee bill instead of the House-run one of multiple pieces of competing hemp regulation filed this year.

If all concerns about hemp rules are aired in public before the bill passes, and so long as all business concerns outlined in DeSantis’ veto letter are addressed, she expects legislation to become state statutes.

Salzman stressed that if that happens, it will just be a starting point for implementing hemp regulations.

“We hope to get this across the finish line, the Governor signs it, and then next year, we reevaluate what’s next,” she said.


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A look at some bills that are struggling in the Legislature as Sine Die approaches

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Shortly after the Senate passed her bill (SB 1318) to ban individuals from hands-on cellphone use while driving, Vero Beach Republican Sen. Erin Grall acknowledged that the measure’s future was uncertain.

Its House companion had yet to receive a single hearing in the lower chamber of the Legislature.

“If there is the will, there’s always a way,” Grall told the Phoenix after the measure passed the Senate 29-7 on Wednesday. “At least it’s going to be with (the House) now, and we’ll see if any other solutions are proposed.”

Grall’s is one of several high-profile proposals in limbo at this point in the 2025 Legislative Session, having passed through one chamber going nowhere in the other.

And with two-thirds of the Regular Session now in the books, the outcome of some of these bills look cloudy at best. Yet those involved in the legislative process don’t dare say they are dead just yet.

“I would say there’s a lot of time left in the session,” Senate President Ben Albritton said this week when asked about the timeline for such bills and whether he might jumpstart their passage through the Senate.

“You’re asking me if I’m specifically open to the idea of referring a House bill that we receive it to say, Rules or Appropriations to have that bill heard and potentially move?” he said in repeating an inquiry with reporters on Wednesday. “The answer is yes.”

Guns

Among bills that the Senate President himself has been asked about on an almost weekly basis is HB 759, which would lower the age for individuals in Florida to purchase shotguns and rifles from 21 to 18. Three measures in the Senate include that provision, but none of them have had a committee hearing.

Albritton has refused to commit to whether he might consider it — unlike his predecessor, Kathleen Passidomo, who was explicit in rejecting that idea during the past two Sessions, when she was presiding officer.

“We’ve heard through back channels that there might be a bill to use as a bargaining chip with the House. Possibly for the budget or something else,” said Luis Valdes, Florida state Director of Gun Owners of America.

“If that’s the case, Gun Owners of America aren’t actually fond of that, because using Second Amendment rights as a bargaining chip for something else is wrong, especially when hundreds of thousands of Floridians have had their rights violated by this law.”

Second Amendment enthusiasts were hyped before the session that their long-awaited hope that Florida would join the overwhelming number of states that allow for open carry would finally be realized, but Albritton shut down that thought in November.

Education

Then there’s SB 166, the public school “deregulation” bill sponsored in the Senate by North Florida Republican Sen. Corey Simon. Under this legislation, Florida high schoolers would not need to pass algebra or English final exams to graduate. The bill looks to “level the playing field amid other school-choice options,” Albritton said in a news release.

There is no House companion for the proposal.

Hands-free distracted driving

A year ago, Tallahassee Democratic Rep. Allison Tant’s distracted-driving bill cleared all three of its committees before dying on the House floor. Its Senate companion, however, was blocked in committees and never received a hearing.

Flash forward to 2025 and the exact opposite is happening: Grall’s bill cleared all of its three committee assignments before passing in the Senate by a two-thirds majority this week, while its House equivalent has yet to be heard in either of its two assigned committees.

Yet advocates aren’t ready to throw in the towel just yet, noting that the bill has been sent to the House in messages, making it available for action there.

“We are extremely hopeful that Rep. (Daniel) Perez will bring this forth, since he represents Miami-Dade, one of 11 counties that have passed a hands-free resolution asking lawmakers to act,” said a spokesperson for the Anthony Phoenix Branca Foundation, a group led by Demetrius Branca, who visited lawmakers around the state earlier this year in hopes of getting them to pass the bill this year. A distracted driver killed Branca’s son in 2014.

Health care

The House has championed a number of scope-of-practice expansions this session but the Senate does not seem interested in doing the same. For instance, the House passed legislation allowing certified registered nurse anesthetists to work without having a written supervisory protocol with a physician.

The bill (HB 649) passed the House on April 3 on a 77-30 vote. Conversely, the Senate companion (SB 718) has been referred to three committees but has been heard by none.

On the precipice

Other bills that have soared through one chamber but are gaining no traction in the other, such as the “right to repair” legislation sponsored by Central Florida Republican Sen. Keith Truenow in the Senate (SB 1132).

The measure would require manufacturers to more freely provide access to tools, manuals, and parts needed to repair certain agriculture and portable wireless equipment. Its House companion, sponsored by Tampa Bay Democratic Rep. Michele Rayner (HB 235), hasn’t received a single hearing in any of the committees it was assigned to.

There’s the E-Verify measure (HB 955), which would require all Florida businesses to use the system to check the legal status of employees, which has cleared both of the committees that it was assigned to in the House. If approved, it would change existing law, which requires only businesses with 25 employees or more to employ the program.

However, E-Verify hasn’t moved at all in the Senate. Sarasota County Republican Sen. Joe Gruters told the Phoenix late Friday that the proposal is still viable in that chamber.

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Mitch Perry, Christine Sexton and Jay Waagmeester reporting. Florida Phoenix is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Florida Phoenix maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Michael Moline for questions: [email protected]


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Winter Park firm lands prestigious award for direct mail campaign

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Full-service direct mail and integrated marketing firm Direct One, based in Winter Park, has landed the prestigious 2025 Reed Award for Best Use of Technology in a Direct Mail Campaign from Campaigns & Elections. 

The firm was recognized alongside project partners RumbleUp, a peer-to-peer texting firm, and Topside Strategies, a full-service Republican consulting firm.

The award recognizes the company’s innovative approach to using cutting-edge tech in its direct mail solutions. It’s named after Campaigns & Elections founder Stanley Foster Reed and celebrates excellence in political campaigning, grassroots outreach and advocacy. 

The Direct One work recognized, for Cindy Pearson’s campaign for Duval County School Board, leveraged texting integrations with direct mail, and used advanced data processing, variable high-speed digital printing and real-time tracking to deliver personalized and results driven direct mail. 

“We are thrilled to receive this prestigious Reed Award,” Direct One CEO Evan Stewart said. “At Direct One we know that direct mail remains a powerful tool in today’s digital  world, especially when paired with the right technology. This award is a testament to our  team’s dedication to pushing boundaries and delivering measurable results for our clients.”

While Direct One is headquartered in Central Florida, it has national reach. The company specializes in creating tailored campaigns that utilize variable data printing, personalized  URLs (pURLs), and QR codes to enhance customer engagement and provide actionable analytics. 

The company also operates out of a SOC 2 Type 1 compliance facility to ensure both security and efficiency in its operations. 

The award-winning campaign was able to achieve exceptional response rates and engagement by incorporating real-time tracking and personalized content.

The company was recognized at the 2025 Reed Awards on Mar. 21 in Austin. 

While it does not list its political clients, the company has worked with various companies and groups, including Nemours Children’s Health, Boy Scouts of America, Vericast and others. 


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