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Trump’s promised ‘Liberation Day’ of tariffs is coming. Here’s what it could mean for you

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 President Donald Trump says Wednesday will be “Liberation Day” — a moment when he plans to roll out a set of tariffs that he promises will free the United States from foreign goods.

The details of Trump’s next round of import taxes are still sketchy. Most economic analyses say average U.S. families would have to absorb the cost of his tariffs in the form of higher prices and lower incomes. But an undeterred Trump is inviting CEOs to the White House to say they are investing hundreds of billions of dollars in new projects to avoid the import taxes.

It is also possible that the tariffs are short-lived if Trump feels he can cut a deal after imposing them.

“I’m certainly open to it, if we can do something,” Trump told reporters. “We’ll get something for it.”

At stake are family budgets, America’s prominence as the world’s leading financial power and the structure of the global economy.

Here’s what you should know about the impending trade penalties:

What exactly does Trump plan to do?

He wants to announce import taxes, including “reciprocal” tariffs that would match the rates charged by other countries and account for other subsidies. Trump has talked about taxing the European Union, South Korea, Brazil and India, among other countries.

As he announced 25% auto tariffs last week, he alleged that America has been ripped off because it imports more goods than it exports.

“This is the beginning of Liberation Day in America,” Trump said. “We’re going to charge countries for doing business in our country and taking our jobs, taking our wealth, taking a lot of things that they’ve been taking over the years. They’ve taken so much out of our country, friend and foe. And, frankly, friend has been oftentimes much worse than foe.”

In an interview Saturday with NBC News, Trump said it did not bother him if tariffs caused vehicle prices to rise because autos with more U.S. content could possibly be more competitively priced.

“I hope they raise their prices, because if they do, people are gonna buy American-made cars,” Trump said. “I couldn’t care less because if the prices on foreign cars go up, they’re going to buy American cars.”

Trump has also suggested that he will be flexible with his tariffs, saying he will treat other nations better than they treated the United States. But he still has plenty of other taxes coming on imports.

The Republican president plans to tax imported pharmaceutical drugs, copper and lumber. He has put forth a 25% tariff on any country that imports oil from Venezuela, even though the United States also does so. Imports from China are being charged an additional 20% tax because of its role in fentanyl production. Trump has imposed separate tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico for the stated reason of stopping drug smuggling and illegal immigration. Trump also expanded his 2018 steel and aluminum tariffs to 25% on all imports.

Some aides suggest the tariffs are tools for negotiation on trade and border security; others say the revenues will help reduce the federal budget deficit. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says they will force other nations to show Trump “respect.”

What could tariffs do to the US economy?

Nothing good, according to most economists. They say the tariffs would get passed along to consumers in the form of higher prices for autos, groceries, housing and other goods. Corporate profits could be lower and growth more sluggish. Trump maintains that more companies would open factories to avoid the taxes, though that process could take three years or more.

Economist Art Laffer estimates the tariffs on autos, if fully implemented, could increase per vehicle costs by $4,711, though he said he views Trump as a smart and savvy negotiator. The investment bank Goldman Sachs estimates the economy will grow this quarter at an annual rate of just 0.6%, down from a rate of 2.4% at the end of last year.

Mayor Andrew Ginther of Columbus, Ohio, said on Friday that tariffs could increase the median cost of a home by $21,000, making affordability more of an obstacle because building materials would cost more.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has suggested that tariffs would be a one-time price adjustment, rather than the start of an inflationary spiral. But Bessent’s conclusion rests on tariffs being brief or contained, rather than leading other countries to retaliate with their own tariffs or seeping into other sectors of the economy.

“There is a chance tariffs on goods begin to filter through to the pricing of services,” said Samuel Rines, a strategist at WisdomTree. “Auto parts get move expensive, then auto repair gets more expensive, then auto insurance feels the pressure. While goods are the focus, tariffs could have a longer-term effect on inflation.”

How are other nations thinking about the new tariffs?

Most foreign leaders see the tariffs as destructive for the global economy, even if they are prepared to impose their own countermeasures.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Trump’s tariff threats had ended the partnership between his country and the United States, even as the president on Friday talked about his phone call with Carney in relatively positive terms. Canada already has announced retaliatory tariffs.

French President Emmanuel Macron said the tariffs were “not coherent” and would mean “breaking value chains, creating inflation in the short term and destroying jobs. It’s not good for the American economy, nor for the European, Canadian or Mexican economies.” Yet Macron said his nation would defend itself with the goal of dismantling the tariffs.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has avoided the tit-for-tat responses on tariffs, but she sees it as critical to defend jobs in her country.

The Chinese government said Trump’s tariffs would harm the global trading system and would not fix the economic challenges identified by Trump.

“There are no winners in trade wars or tariff wars, and no country’s development and prosperity are achieved through imposing tariffs,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said.

How did Trump land on it being called ‘Liberation Day’?

Based off Trump’s public statements, April 2 is at least the third “liberation day” that he has identified.

At a rally last year in Nevada, he said the day of the presidential election, Nov. 5, would be “Liberation Day in America.” He later gave his inauguration the same label, declaring in his address: “For American citizens, Jan. 20, 2025, is Liberation Day.”

His repeated designation of the term is a sign of just how much importance Trump places on tariffs, an obsession of his since the 1980s. Dozens of other countries recognize their own form of liberation days to recognize events such as overcoming Nazi Germany or the end of a previous political regime deemed oppressive.

Trump sees his tariffs as providing national redemption, but the slumping consumer confidence and stock market indicate that much of the public believes the U.S. economy will pay the price for his ambitions.

“I don’t see anything positive about Liberation Day,” said Phillip Braun, a finance professor at Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management. “It’s going to hurt the U.S. economy. Other countries are going to retaliate.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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Dow futures climb as stocks point higher after Trump issues temporary tariff exemptions on key tech imports

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  • US stocks were poised for more gains heading into a new trading week after a series of wild swings last week as investors navigated the latest twists and turns in President Donald Trump’s trade war. Late Friday, his administration unveiled tariff exemptions, but he warned they are temporary.

Stock futures pointed higher Sunday night, signaling more gains after markets endured a series of wild swings last week as President Donald Trump’s tariff regime has been a moving target.

Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 124 points, or 0.31%, while S&P 500 futures were up 0.58%, and Nasdaq futures jumped 0.85%.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury was little changed at 4.497%, and the US Dollar Index ticked 0.24% lower, though the greenback gained 0.14% against the euro.

US crude oil prices dipped 0.26% to $61.34 a barrel, and Brent crude fell 0.29% to $64.57 as fears of a tariff-induced global recession weighed on energy demand forecasts.

Early last week, stocks tumbled as markets continued to reel from Trump’s aggressive “Liberation Day” tariffs, then they soared when he announced a 90-day hold for most of them. But stocks sank later as China retaliated but rallied on Friday.

Then in a notice published late Friday night, US Customs and Border Protection issued new guidance on his so-called reciprocal tariffs, carving out exemptions for smartphones, chips, as well as other top consumer electronics and tech components.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives called the exemptions the “best possible news for tech investors,” allowing Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft and tech giants to breathe a sigh of relief.  

But on Sunday, Trump and administration officials warned the reprieve is only temporary as new duties will hit tech imports, though presumably the rates won’t be as high as the 145% level China faces.

While Trump can give stocks a boost, bond and currency markets may not be so easily impressed as they rapidly de-dollarize.

That’s as US assets that were traditionally viewed as safe havens are losing that status amid a shift away from the dollar, with former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers warning that US bonds are trading like those of an emerging market nation.

“The market is rapidly de-dollarizing,” George Saravelos, global head of FX research at Deutsche Bank, said in a note this past week, adding that “the market has lost faith in US assets, so that instead of closing the asset-liability mismatch by hoarding dollar liquidity it is actively selling down the US assets themselves.” 

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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Trump’s energy secretary says average oil prices will be lower

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Energy prices are set to be lower under the current US administration than in the prior one, according to US Energy Secretary Chris Wright.

“Under President Trump’s leadership in the next four years we’ll almost certainly see lower average energy prices than we saw in the last four years of the previous administration,” Wright said at a briefing with reporters in Riyadh. He declined to comment on specific price targets.

The US under Biden frequently clashed with Saudi Arabia over energy policy after the US felt its entreaties to boost production and lower prices to deal with inflation were ignored. Crude averaged about $83 a barrel between 2017 and 2021, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“I can’t comment about where oil prices are today or where they’re going, but if you reduce barriers to investment, reduce barriers to build infrastructure, you can lower the supply costs of energy,” Wright said.

Oil prices have been in decline recently after Saudi Arabia and other oil producing countries pledged to boost output and Trump shook markets with broad tariffs. Crude fell to less than $65 a barrel, its lowest level since the coronavirus pandemic and well below the level at which Saudi Arabia balances its budget. That could threaten the kingdom’s ability to continue funding its vast economic transformation plans, according to Goldman Sachs.

Still, the US and Saudi Arabia are eye-to-eye on energy markets, Wright said. “President Trump — and I think the Kingdom — want to see increased demand for energy around the globe and we want to see increased supply.”

The US and Saudi Arabia are also working on a preliminary agreement to cooperate on civilian nuclear power production and expect to make progress on that this year, Wright said. The two countries are on a ‘pathway’ to an accord that would involve non-proliferation and control of nuclear technologies, he said. 

The kingdom would need to sign a so-called 123 agreement, which covers areas including nuclear proliferation issues and technology transfer, Wright said. The US also views it as “critical” that Saudi Arabia does not seek to partner with China on the development of its nuclear program. 

“That view is shared across the two nations and the fact that that may have been in doubt is probably indicative of unproductive relationships between the United States and Saudi Arabia over the last several years,” he said.

Saudi Arabia has previously sought bids from foreign developers including Russian and Chinese companies, along with French and South Korean ones, to build nuclear power reactors.

Under the Biden administration, US cooperation on Saudi Arabia’s nuclear power program had been mooted as part of a broader deal that would also see the two countries sign a defence pact and deepen trade relations. That would have also involved Saudi Arabia agreeing to normalize relations with Israel. However, it was derailed after the Oct. 7 attacks on Israel by Hamas and Israel’s military response.

Wright was in Riyadh as part of a tour of several Middle East countries and which had included meetings with Saudi Minister of Energy Prince Abdulaziz Bin Salman.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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These market veterans still think America is the best place to put your money — ‘Tech Trumps Tariffs even if Mickey Mouse or a clown were to run the US!’

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  • President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff campaign is creating doubts about the attractiveness and safety of US assets. But there are still some who believe the US will produce the best returns, despite an epic selloff and signs of a shifting world order. That’s due in part to America’s dominance in critical technologies.

The idea of “American exceptionalism” in the global economy and financial markets has rapidly lost favor this year as President Donald Trump embarks on an aggressive tariff campaign that is creating doubts about US assets.

Stocks have suffered an epic meltdown and only partially recouped their losses. The dollar and Treasury bonds are losing their safe haven status. The economy may slip into a recession, soaring debt may start to overwhelm the “exorbitant privilege” the US enjoys, and the world was already having trust issues with America.

In contrast, markets in China and Europe have been relative outperformers this year after years of lagging behind the US.

But there are still some market veterans who believe the US is the place to be, due in part to America’s dominance in critical innovations.

‘Tech Trumps Tariffs’

Nouriel Roubini, an economist and CEO of the consultancy Roubini Macro Associates, believes “tech trumps tariffs” in the short run and the medium term.

The US boasts leadership in key technologies and industries, so it doesn’t matter who the president is, he wrote in a post on X on Thursday. Meanwhile, China comes in a “close second,” and Europe is out of the picture completely.

Roubini estimates that tech innovations will increase US potential growth by 200 basis points from 2% to 4% by 2030, while tariffs would drag down growth by 50 basis points, even assuming a permanent average rate of 15% after negotiations.

“So Tech Trumps Tariffs even if Mickey Mouse or a clown were to run the US! It doesn’t matter and American exceptionalism will remain and be resilient regardless of Trump given the hyper dynamism and innovations of the US private sector,” he added.

A critical part of Roubini’s thesis is that the nature of innovation itself is shifting from producing an “initial growth spurt that fizzles out over time” to exponential growth that accelerates and gives first-movers enduring advantages versus followers.

He pointed to DeepSeek’s AI model that shocked Silicon Valley earlier this year, saying it’s not a revolution but an evolution that owes its existence to US companies like OpenAI and their years of massive investments.

“MAG-7, hyperscalers and tech firms (in Nasdaq) could not care less about tariffs,” he added. “They gotta continue and increase massive Ai capex to avoid becoming obsolete relative to each other.”

‘Stay Home’

Meanwhile, Ed Yardeni has said that if Trump’s tariffs cause a recession, the US will suffer less than international markets and economies would.

“While some allocation to key international markets might be warranted over a long-term time horizon, we are sticking with our Stay Home investment bias,” he wrote in a note early Wednesday.

That came before Trump put a 90-day pause on his “reciprocal tariffs” on Wednesday afternoon and Friday night’s exemptions on tech imports. But Trump also warned Sunday that tariffs will eventually hit the “whole electronic supply chain.”

Still, the US enjoys full employment, is a net energy exporter, and has a flexible services-driven economy, with productivity growth that’s strong enough to outweigh pressures from supply-chain realignment and less immigration, Yardeni explained.

On the other side, China’s export-driven growth strategy may not work without US demand, while Germany’s manufacturers are being crushed by China, he added.

‘The US has a lot positive going for it’

Then there’s Mark Delaney, chief investment officer at AustralianSuper, which manages $223 billion of assets.

He told the Financial Times on Tuesday that the US is still the most attractive region for long-term investments, even as he acknowledged that Trump’s tariffs were a “significant volatility event.”

In fact, he hasn’t reduced his fund’s US exposure in recent weeks, and it remains more than half of AustralianSuper’s international holdings.

“The US has a lot positive going for it—strong economic performance (though it’s given a bit back), strong productivity growth, strong profit growth and, by any measure, many of the best companies in the world—all that makes it an attractive place to store capital,” Delaney told the FT

Even though global trade flows could be upended by tariffs, the companies he’s investing in will likely be affected less.

That’s because tariffs are targeting goods instead of services—for now—though any escalation in the trade war may eventually hit those too.

“Look at any investor’s major holdings,” Delaney said. “There aren’t that many goods, it’s mostly services, that’s the way the global economy has evolved.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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