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Trump tariffs could climb even further—to the highest since 1872—before they ease again as a cycle of retaliation and escalation plays out

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  • President Donald Trump’s tariffs could reach an effective rate as high as 30%, up from 25% under his recently announced plans, according to analysts at UBS. A rate that steep would mark the highest level in more than 150 years. But after a cycle of retaliation and escalation, UBS see tariffs coming back down later this year.

President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs are already sending rates to the steepest levels in a century, but they could go even higher.

According to a note from UBS analysts on Friday, the latest salvo of import taxes will send the effective rate to 25%, up from 2.5% before the 2024 election. But it’s not likely to stop there.

“We believe that the EU and China are likely to retaliate, and that the ‘reciprocal’ approach to US tariffs means that retaliation by trading partners is likely to be met with even higher US tariffs,” they wrote.

In addition, some of the imports that weren’t targeted this past week may be subject to future investigations and could lose their exemptions, UBS said, noting the Trump administration has a “high degree of conviction” in the merits of restrictive trade policies.

On Wednesday, Trump added a 34% levy on China that will take the total rate to 54% and hit the European Union with a 20% duty. China has already retaliated with its own 34% tariff, and the EU said it plans to respond too.

UBS expects the effective US tariff rate will peak in the 25%-30% range. According to data from Fitch Ratings, a 25% effective tariff rate would already be the highest since 1909.

And if it reaches 30%, it would be the highest since 1872—when Civil War hero Ulysses S. Grant was president and the US economy was still in the early stages of the Industrial Revolution.

But by the third quarter, UBS sees tariffs starting to head back down and expects the effective rate to end 2025 at 10%-15%.

“Various individual countries have suggested that they do not intend to retaliate and that deals with individual countries could begin to bring the overall effective tariff rate down,” analysts said.

In fact, Vietnam confirmed over the weekend that it offered to remove all tariffs on US imports, and Trump administration officials said Sunday that more than 50 countries have reached out to the White House for tariff talks.

Trump will also face more pressure to negotiate, UBS predicted, citing potential challenges to the legal basis for his tariffs and extensive business lobbying to water down policies or carve out exceptions.

And as midterm election season gets closer, political calculations may also soften Trump’s stance. Republican Sen. Ted Cruz warned of a political “bloodbath” in 2026 if tariffs cause a recession.

UBS sees US GDP expanding by less than 1% in 2025, including an intra-year recession that will see GDP decline 1% from peak to trough. Stocks will rebound, but analysts slashed their year-end S&P 500 target to 5,800 from 6,400.

“We believe some potentially acceptable ‘off-ramps’ that could enable all sides to declare victory could include some combination of higher European defense spending, measures in Asia to prevent dumping of excess supply into global markets, reductions in existing tariff or non-tariff barriers, or measures to increase inward investment into the US,” UBS said.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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Crisis on the menu: How cut-price deals and fast food are reshaping France’s sacred lunch ideals

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‘I haven’t seen sunlight in 3 months’: American law firm trainees in London endure 13-hour days for eye-watering six-figure starting salaries

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A survey of trainees and junior lawyers at American law firms’ offices in London shows that they spend as much as 13 hours a day at work—roughly twice the average work week in the U.K.

That comes with a lifestyle of Deliveroo dinners and picking up calls at “ungodly hours or on days off,” an anonymous employee told Legal Cheek, a legal news site that surveyed 2,000 workers across London’s various law firms, in November.

“I haven’t seen sunlight in three months,” said another anonymous employee. 

Yet another participant said that although vacation time was respected, they were always expected to answer work calls. 

Yes, all the tropes that shows, like Suits, make you believe about how long and hard law firms work their new staff work, might just be true. 

While it has the trappings of a toxic work culture people would try to avoid, working long hours at law firms comes with handsome pay. Starting salaries in the top firms are over £170,000, or nearly five times the U.K.’s median income in 2023. 

The likes of Kirkland and Ellis and Paul Hastings, American law firms with practices in London, pay £172,000 and demand an average of 12 to 13 hours a day, The Times reported. In contrast, British firms make employees work slightly shorter on average while capping starting pay at £150,000.   

To be sure, not every firm in the industry has brutally long hours in exchange for a six-figure paycheck. Several of the firms listed by Legal Cheek in its survey limit their workday to 9 hours or so for freshly qualified solicitors. 

Still, that’s a far cry from the average workweek in the U.K., which spans 36.6 hours or 7.3 hours a day.

Billable hours are the metric law firms often use to measure the performance of their lawyers. In some cases, those hours tick up to 2,000 a year. The U.S. demands a higher number of hours on average compared to Britain.

However, the model has been controversial amid cost pressures and demands for a more transparent system. Lawyers also argue that there could be more efficient ways to do the same work without a billable hours structure that determines pay. With AI’s emergence into public consciousness, the legal profession is already beginning to change.

That hasn’t hit hiring momentum, at least at the top level. London’s top law firms hired partners at record speed in 2024, driven by American law firms’ appetite to compete for talent in the British capital. 

Part of the appeal for fresh talent at U.S.-based firms is the high pay they can swing relative to British ones. The most esteemed law firms are rethinking their partner pay structure in response to the growing competition.   

“The impact of the covetous New Yorker on the highest levels of the London legal services market over such a short period has been profound,” a report by recruiting firm Edward Gibson said in July.    

A version of this story was originally published on Fortune.com on Nov. 5, 2024.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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Crypto exchange OKX relaunches in U.S. two months after settling with DOJ for $500 million

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Seychelles-based OKX announced on Tuesday that it is relaunching the U.S. version of its crypto exchange and unveiled a new wallet for American users to store as well as trade cryptocurrencies. The company also named Roshan Robert, a longtime employee of Barclays, as its U.S. CEO and revealed it would locate its U.S. regional headquarters in San Jose, California.

“It is not just the rebrand. The entire technology interface, everything has changed,” said Robert, who was recently an executive at the crypto prime broker Hidden Road, which was acquired by Ripple for $1.25 billion in April.

OKX’s renewed focus on the U.S. follows a settlement the exchange’s international entity reached with the Department of Justice in February. Prosecutors alleged that OKX failed to implement adequate anti-money laundering processes and solicited U.S. customers even though its international entity wasn’t registered in the States. As part of the agreement, OKX paid a $500 million fine, pled guilty to one count of operating an unlicensed money transmitting business, and agreed to pay for an external compliance consultant through February 2027.

“For over seven years, OKX knowingly violated anti-money laundering laws and avoided implementing required policies to prevent criminals from abusing our financial system,” Matthew Podolsky, Acting U.S. Attorney for the Southern District, said in a statement announcing the settlement.

“There were no allegations of customer harm, no charges against any company employee and no government appointed monitor as part of the settlement,” OKX said in a blog post.

The exchange’s U.S. relaunch also comes amid a more favorable regulatory environment for crypto under President Donald Trump. Robert, the U.S. CEO, said OKX’s plans to increase its U.S. presence predates Trump’s second term. He started talking with the crypto exchange in the summer of 2024 and was officially brought on in September. “We were preparing our compliance infrastructure, our risk management infrastructure for the last year and a half or so,” he added.

That said, Robert welcomes the Trump administration’s less aggressive approach to crypto. “The rulemaking will take some time, but there is a path that we can see,” he said.

As Robert steers the new, relaunched OKX U.S., he’s facing stiff competition from incumbents Coinbase and Kraken. However, he believes that the market in the U.S. isn’t zero sum and thinks that younger generations’ appetite for risky crypto bets will grow the pie. “The whole digital asset market is an expanding universe,” he said.

Hong Fang, OKX’s global president, previously oversaw OKX’s U.S. entity, which was formerly named OKcoin. 

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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