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Trump tariff headlines spur volatility surge across markets

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Reuters

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February 3, 2025

U.S. President Donald Trump‘s initial tariff actions against Canada, Mexico and China sparked a rise in broad market volatility and a rush to take guard against increased ructions across asset classes from stocks to currencies.

Reuters

The U.S. President’s weekend orders for additional levies of 25% on imports from Mexico and most goods from Canada, as well as 10% on goods from China, jolted markets surprised by the speed and intensity of these moves so soon after his inauguration.

Analysts estimate the tariffs could raise the risk of a sharp slowdown in global growth, resurgent inflation and a pause to Federal Reserve rate cuts, prompting a bout of risk aversion from investors.

The Cboe Volatility Index – an options-based gauge of investor expectation for near-term stock market moves – jumped to a 1-week high of 20.41, before paring gains to trade up 2 points at 18.43. While that is still below the index’s long-term average of 19.4, it is well above its average reading over the past year of 15.8.

Currency markets were also roiled with an across the board rise in implied volatility – a measure of how much the market expects prices to fluctuate in the future. Volatility expectations for currencies directly in Trump’s crosshairs saw the biggest surge, but other major pairs including the euro-dollar saw a rise in expectation for future moves.

One-month implied volatility for the dollar/Mexican peso pair jumped to 15.6, the highest since mid November, and about 3 points higher than its 5-year average. Meanwhile, implied volatility for the dollar/Canadian dollar pair soared as high as 9.3, its highest since November 2022.

While volatility expectations for various assets had ticked up in the days before the tariffs announcement and various currencies had weakened against the dollar on expectations for tariff-related headlines, the intensity of the market reaction to the weekend headlines shows investors were not quite prepared for it, analysts said.

“Generally speaking, investors were not taking Trump seriously or literally … the announcement on Saturday as well as comments after that have compelled investors to reassess the risk,” Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist with payments company Corpay in Toronto, said.

Adding to the uncertainty is the possibility that some sort of deal is arrived at between the U.S. and other countries that allows for tariffs to be averted in a lasting way.

The Mexican peso, which had plunged to a near three-year low against the dollar on news of the impending tariffs, reversed course to trade up 0.5% on the day after Trump said he would pause new tariffs on Mexico for one month.

“The headlines come at you very fast,” Mandy Xu head of derivatives market intelligence at Cboe Global Markets, said.
“I think this unpredictability is partly what is driving this huge surge in option volume that we’re seeing so far,” she said.

© Thomson Reuters 2025 All rights reserved.



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Fashion

LVMH to be driven in 2025 by its powerhouses Louis Vuitton, Dior, and by Tiffany

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Translated by

Nicola Mira

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February 3, 2025

“Just for this once, I will not be talking about a record year,” said Bernard Arnault during the presentation of the LVMH group’s 2024 annual results. In fiscal 2024, the group in fact reported a 17% drop in net profit, down to €12.55 billion, and a 2% downturn in revenue, to €84.7 billion (while organic growth was 1%). But Arnault said he was confident, underlining the positive results posted by LVMH’s top labels, Louis Vuitton and Christian Dior, the improvement observed at Tiffany, as well as Sephora‘s remarkable growth. Elements that are expected to allow the group to look to 2025 with a little more optimism.

LVMH’s senior executive team during the annual results’ presentation – ph DM

“We do not believe there is a structural crisis,” echoed group CFO Jean-Jacques Guiony. From the outset, LVMH’s top executives pointed out that 2025 “started pretty well,” as Louis Vuitton and Tiffany recorded double-digit growth in January. Of course, the year is only a few weeks old and, with regards to Louis Vuitton, its performance was fuelled by the recent collaboration with Japanese artist Takashi Murakami, but the early figures were seen as encouraging.

Arnault emphasised the positive results generated by Louis Vuitton, notably highlighting the success of the temporary Louis Vuitton store that opened in New York in November, replacing the label’s local flagship, whose renovation will take several years. “The temporary store is twice as big as the previous permanent one, but it’s always busy. Since its opening, it has generated more than double the revenue of the previous store,” he said. Arnault made clear that Louis Vuitton, “isn’t a fashion label. It’s a leather goods maker, a travel specialist, a house of culture and poetry, in which fashion, which I introduced in the 1990s, is something of an accessory.”

LVMH’s Fashion & Leather Goods division closed 2024 with revenue of €41 billion, down 3%, with organic revenue down 1%. In Q4, it lost 1% in like-for-like terms. The group did not provide results for individual labels, but Arnault also dwelt on Christian Dior, saying it is “France’s main fashion house, owned by a French group. Among its competitors, it’s the house that achieved the best results in 2024. In an increasingly difficult business environment, it’s the house that performed best.”

In 2025, Dior will reopen its 57th Street store in New York, and is also about to open in Beverly Hills. “We have the hope and conviction that 2025 will bring to the fore Dior, haute couture, and Louis Vuitton too,” said Arnault. On Friday January 31, Dior announced the departure of Kim Jones, the creative director of its menswear collections, suggesting major changes may be on the cards at the top of Dior’s design studio, even if Arnault insisted it is important to “maintain enduring relationships” with designers and collaborators. “Continuity is indispensable,” he said.

Perfumery retailer Sephora was also cited for its outstanding performance. Since it became part of LVMH in 1997, Sephora has grown from revenue of approximately €100 million to one that is “more than 10 times higher,” noted Arnault, without disclosing the retailer’s actual result.

Bernard Arnault speaking at the press conference – ph DM

LVMH’s press conference was also the opportunity for the group to assess jewellery brand Tiffany & Co., which it acquired for just under $16 billion (€13.4 billion) in 2021. Tiffany & Co.’s sales soared in the year after the acquisition, but they have since slowed down, and the US brand’s management has suffered from negative publicity following recent media reports. According to LVMH, Tiffany posted record results in 2024 at its flagship store in New York, known as the Landmark, whose upgrade required an investment of over $350 million.

“In the fourth quarter, organic revenue growth was 9%, which isn’t so bad,” said Arnault, adding that “Tiffany & Co. was a sleeping beauty. I don’t think we made a bad deal. It’s America’s premier luxury brand.” To rouse the sleeping beauty from its slumbers, LVMH was forced to “part ways with a number of people and retailers” whose performance wasn’t up to scratch.

In Q4, organic sales for LVMH’s Watches and Jewellery division increased by 3%, while Tiffany’s grew by 9%. In addition, “the brand’s revenue has doubled since the acquisition, and jewellery sales have grown fourfold,” according to Arnault. “The Landmark is LVMH’s top luxury boutique. Of course, we still have a lot to do. Our strategy is to develop iconic products generating fast-paced growth. New openings are also on the cards. This requires investment, but every time we open or renovate a store, its revenue increases by 25%,” said Arnault. 

The LVMH boss also talked about diversifying in the hotel industry. “It’s an interesting area which is linked to our business as manufacturers of luxury products, insofar as we produce luxury stays. We started from scratch a decade ago with the Cheval Blanc in Courchevel, in France. It is now the most luxurious hotel chain in the world.”

“This doesn’t mean that we are going to invest a lot in it, and that it’s as profitable as Louis Vuitton, Dior or Bulgari. It’s interesting because it’s the same environment. It’s luxury as an experience as opposed to products. But it needs plenty of investments, usually long-term, which are generally sound investments, but must be undertaken sensibly. It’s a good way to diversify, though it doesn’t have the same potential as a Louis Vuitton,” concluded Arnault.

Finally, the other area on which LVMH is planning to focus is the geographical rebalancing of all its labels, as indicated by Guiony. At the group level, 25% of revenue is generated in the USA, 25% in Europe and 28% in Asia, while the remainder is divided between Japan and the Middle East. “Our efforts must now be focused on a better balance for each label, which means having a foot in Asia, one in the USA and in Europe. Something which isn’t always the case,” said Guiony.

Copyright © 2025 FashionNetwork.com All rights reserved.



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Shein IPO faces judicial review challenge from Uyghur rights group

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Reuters

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February 3, 2025

Fast fashion retailer Shein‘s plans to list in London face a challenge from a group campaigning against forced labour in China, which said on Monday it would apply for a judicial review of the IPO if Britain’s regulator approves the flotation.

Reuters

The group, Stop Uyghur Genocide, claims the retailer’s supply chain in China includes cotton produced by Uyghur forced labour. Its plan to apply for a judicial review could increase pressure on Britain’s Financial Conduct Authority, though it faces a high bar to succeed.

The FCA said it cannot comment on potential listings. Shein said it strictly prohibits forced labour in its supply chain globally.
The online retailer aims to list in London in the first half of this year if it gains regulatory approvals, two sources with direct knowledge told Reuters last month.

In a similar challenge to an IPO in 2023, environmental law group ClientEarth applied for a judicial review after the FCA approved oil producer Ithaca Energy‘s flotation, but the High Court denied the application saying it could not be proved the FCA had failed to disclose material risks.

The U.S. government and rights groups say Uyghur minority people are subject to abuses including forced labour in internment camps set up by the Chinese government in the Xinjiang region. China denies any abuses.

Xinjiang produces around 80% of China’s cotton and accounts for a fifth of global cotton production, exposing most global apparel retailers and brands to this risk.

In written evidence to UK lawmakers, Shein said it only allows cotton from approved regions, which do not include China, for its products sold in the U.S., its biggest market, as part of its compliance with the U.S. Uyghur Forced Labour Prevention Act (UFLPA), which prohibits the import of products made in Xinjiang or made by designated banned companies.

Shein did not specify whether its restrictions on cotton sources applied to products sold in other markets, such as the UK.
The retailer does not prohibit the use of Chinese cotton in its products where such use would not breach relevant laws and regulations, it added.

© Thomson Reuters 2025 All rights reserved.



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Bankrupt Signa seeks €370 million from sale of Vienna Park Hyatt

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Bloomberg

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February 3, 2025

Administrators of bankrupt Signa Prime Selection AG are preparing to launch the sale of the Vienna Park Hyatt and adjoining luxury retail premises, including Prada’s flagship store, according to people familiar with the matter. 

Bloomberg

Real estate investment bank Eastdil Secured LLC has been appointed to offer the properties that are expected to attract bids in the region of €350 million ($361 million) to €370 million, two people said, asking not to be identified as the process is not yet public. The 146-room hotel accounts for roughly half of that price tag, with the luxury stores adjacent to another Signa asset, the so-called Golden Quarter, making up the other, they said.

The properties have about €155 million of debt secured against them from German pension fund Bayerische Versorgungskammer, one of the people said. Signa had valued the building at €422 million in a 2022 presentation to investors seen by Bloomberg.

Representatives for Signa Prime’s insolvency administrator and Eastdil declined to comment.

The launch of the sale process will coincide with the annual Mipim property conference in the second week of March, an annual gathering of real estate investors in Cannes attended by Signa founder Rene Benko in the past. It comes after a spate of recent Signa sales including the Upper West tower in Berlin and the Viennese palais that houses Austria’s Constitutional Court. 

The unraveling of Benko’s Austrian property empire has provided a rare source of high-profile deals at a time when Europe’s real estate markets grapple with higher interest rates. Would-be sellers have been reluctant to offer properties for sale after the spike in borrowing costs impacted valuations, preferring to cling on and hope for a recovery rather than crystallizing losses. 

Hotels have been a rare bright spot amid the commercial real estate gloom, with the management agreements on which they typically operate helping to shield landlords from inflation. That’s because room rates can adjust immediately to higher costs in contrast to offices or stores that are typically held on long-term leases with fixed rents. 

Hyatt Hotels Corp. has a long-term management agreement for the property, offering some of Vienna’s priciest accommodation. The 820 square meter (8,826 square feet) Royal Penthouse Suite is available for $13,200 per night, including taxes, according to a listing on Expedia.

Benko is in pre-trial detention as prosecutors investigate suspected fraud. He has denied wrongdoing.

Signa Prime’s administrators have been attempting to claw back cash for creditors through property sales, as well as seeking damages and repayments from former managers and business partners. Asset sales have been complicated by the company’s complex debt structure.
 



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