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Trump is pushing for a ‘big cut’ from the Fed today—but he’s already on a losing streak

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Trump has lost a couple of battles recently in his war on the Fed: He hasn’t succeeded in ousting Federal Governor Lisa Cook, and his calls for a significant cut are likely to go unanswered.

On Sunday night the president told reporters: “I think you have a big cut” to come out of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this week. He added: “I don’t think he can help but cut. It’s perfect for cutting.”

Trump has been pressuring Powell to cut since winning the Oval Office (despite lobbying for the contrary before the elections). He has even given Powell the nickname of “Too Late” for, in his opinion, being delayed in reducing the base rate as market conditions have changed. Not to miss an opportunity to criticize Powell, Trump added this weekend that the Fed chairman is “incompetent.”

While many analysts agree the economic environment does call for a reduction in the base rate, currently at 4.25% to 4.5%, few believe the committee will go further than reduction of a single click (25 basis points). Some speculators, like Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, believe the Fed should cut harder by 50 bps.

Yet overall the market isn’t sold on this strategy, with interest investors pricing in only a 3.9% chance of the FOMC reducing the rate to 3.75% to 4%.

In addition to Trump’s demands being potentially outsized, his bid for a more favorable voting board has also been nixed. Trump and members of his team claimed Lisa Cook made false statements on mortgage agreements. Writing on Truth Social last month, Trump alleged Cook claimed two primary residences (in Ann Arbor and Atlanta) in 2021 in order to secure better terms and he was “removing” her from her post as such.

Cook took the matter to court, and a federal appeals court ruled yesterday that the economist could not be ousted from her post by the White House.

With Cook’s voting position secured just in time for the FOMC meeting which will conclude today, Trump has lost the chance to replace the governor with a more dovish expert of his own.

The Miran effect

Those lobbying for a cut will have a friendly face at the table in the form of Stephen Miran, a White House advisor who will temporarily sit on the FOMC as a replacement for governor Adriana Kugler.

Miran, chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, will retain his role as an advisor to the Trump team—a move which has raised eyebrows among those most concerned about the independence of the Fed from political meddling.

The new-joiner’s argument for a cut—of however much—is clear. Looking at the Fed’s mandate, inflation is warm but not too hot, and the employment side of the Fed’s responsibility is looking shaky.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that last month the U.S. added a meagre 22,000 jobs, and further revisions to the year ended March 2025 showed America had added near-a million roles less than previously believed. While this larger revision is of little use to policy decisions moving forward, it does bolster the argument that the labor market is performing significantly worse than previously hoped.

Even then, analysts don’t believe a cut of more than 25bps will be announced when the meeting concludes this afternoon. Macquarie’s David Doyle wrote in a note seen by Fortune that he expects the smaller reduction, adding: “There may be dissents in favor of a 50 bps cut. Governors Waller and Bowman dissented in July (for 25 bps), while it is likely that Stephen Miran … may also dissent.

“Statement language changes could tilt in a dovish direction, reflecting the recent deterioration in the labor market data. Chair Powell is likely to echo his tone from Jackson Hole during his press conference and emphasize that a shift in the balance of risks warrants an adjustment to the policy rate.”

Indeed, even while Wharton’s Professor Jeremy Siegel believes the base rate should already be around the 3% mark, he isn’t advocating for a larger cut. Writing for WisdomTree, where he is senior economist, Professor Siegel wrote: “If the Committee delivers 25 [this] week and then cuts at each subsequent meeting through year-end, that’s 75 basis points by December 31, enough to keep growth on track and reduce the odds of a policy-induced stall.”

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Kushner’s Affinity withdraws from Warner Bros. takeover battle

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Jared Kushner’s Affinity Partners is exiting from the takeover battle for Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. 

The private equity firm this month emerged as a participant in Paramount Skydance Corp.’s hostile bid for Warner Bros., which valued the media and entertainment company at $108.4 billion including debt. Paramount is seeking to scupper Netflix Inc.’s agreed $82.7 billion deal for Warner Bros.

Affinity was helping to finance Paramount’s move. It now believes the dynamics ​of an investment have changed since it became involved in the process in October, a representative for the firm said.

“With ​two ​strong competitors ​vying to secure ​the future ​of this ​unique American ​asset, ​Affinity ​has ​decided no longer to pursue ​the opportunity,” the firm said. “We ​continue to ​believe ​there is a strong strategic rationale for Paramount’s offer.”

Warner Bros. is planning to reject Paramount’s offer due to concerns about financing and other terms, people familiar with the matter said Tuesday. Affinity’s investment in the bid is about $200 million in equity, Bloomberg News has reported. 

The battle for Warner Bros. stands to reshape the entertainment industry regardless of which bidder emerges victorious. With the company’s films and TV shows, Netflix would wield tremendous new power over the content offered to online audiences. Paramount, meanwhile, aims to marry two legacy Hollywood studios to counter the influence of Netflix, Walt Disney Co. and Amazon.com Inc.

Both bids raise significant antitrust concerns — something underscored by multibillion-dollar breakup fees the parties have offered. Netflix and Paramount have each been laying the groundwork to win over the White House, with US President Donald Trump having indicated he will weigh in on the approval process for a sale of Warner Bros. Kushner is Trump’s son-in-law.

Paramount’s offer is being bankrolled by a list of influential Middle Eastern investors, including Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund and the Qatar Investment Authority, as well as a little-known group from Abu Dhabi called L’imad Holding Co. Kushner has strong ties to the Middle East. He founded Affinity in 2021 with funding from sovereign wealth funds from the region. 

This week, Bloomberg News reported that Affinity dropped plans for a hotel in Serbia after tensions around the project culminated in the indictment of a government official who helped clear a path for its development.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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As millions of Gen Zers face unemployment, McDonald’s CEO dishes out some tough love career advice for navigating the market: ‘You’ve got to make things happen for yourself’

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Instead, the 57-year-old executive is offering some blunt advice for aspiring young professionals: whether the market is hot or cold, no one is going to give you a handout. Your career is yours to build, and the onus is on you to make it happen.

“Remember, nobody cares about your career as much as you do,” Kempczinski said in a recent Instagram video. “You’ve got to own it, you’ve got to make things happen for yourself.”

At a time when many young workers are grasping at their networks for a leg up, the risks of falling behind are real: millions of young people are now classified as NEET—not in employment, education, or training. Against that backdrop, Kempczinski warned there’s no guarantee anyone will always have your back—or ensure you reach your career goals. 

Kempczinski knows firsthand that careers rarely unfold as planned. He once dreamed of becoming a professional soccer player, not a CEO. When it became clear early on that his athletic capability wasn’t up to star-level, he took his future into his own hands: turning lessons learned from washing dishes at 16 at First Watch into a three-decade-long career across companies like Procter & Gamble and PepsiCo before he was tapped to lead McDonald’s in 2019.

Keeping an open mind could be a career changer

Instead of expecting stability, one of the biggest paths to long-term success is embracing the chaos with curiosity—and a willingness to say yes when opportunities arise, according to Kempczinski.

“ To be a yes person is way better than to be a no person,” he told LinkedIn CEO Ryan Roslansky. “So as those career twists and turns happen, the more that you’re seen as someone who’s willing to say yes and to go do something, it just means you’re gonna get that next call.”

For Loreal’s Chief Human Resource Officer Stephanie Kramer, saying yes to things—even if they were unglamorous and “junior” looking, like grabbing coffee—was pivotal to her success.

“At the beginning of my career, I often credit it with the ability to say yes to the very, very little things,” Kramer recently told Fortune. “Who’s going to make the copies and going to get the coffee? Me. Who is going to be there early to set up the meeting? Me. Who is going to go watch which door consumers go in to determine what the best bay or window is for Saks Fifth Avenue that we want to have? Me.”

And the benefits of keeping an open mind early on may be more relevant now than ever, as opportunities have become slimmer for recent graduates. 

In the U.K., more than 1.2 million applications were submitted for just under 17,000 open graduate roles in 2023 and 2024, according to the Institute of Student Employers. And back stateside, lawmakers have warned that joblessness among recent graduates could hit 25% in the next two to three years as AI reshapes entry-level work.

Fortune reached out to Kempczinski for further comment.

The endless pursuit of knowledge—no matter what life throws at you

The emphasis on staying curious—even when plans change—is a theme echoed by other top executives.

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan has long credited asking questions and continuously learning as central to both the bank’s success and his own decade-plus tenure at the helm of a Fortune 500 company.

“You lose your curiosity, and you are on your way out of this company,” Moynihan told Fortune in 2017.

He echoed that message just last week, saying his top leadership advice remains simple: “You have to keep learning, you have to be curious, you have to read a lot,” he told The Master Investor podcast.

That mindset has also shaped the unconventional career path of Life360 CEO Lauren Antonoff. 

She once planned to become a civil rights lawyer, but an unexpected curiosity sparked by her first MacBook in college pulled her toward technology. She ultimately climbed the corporate ladder in tech—even without finishing her degree.

“I’m a big believer in finding your way in the world,” Antonoff recently told Fortune. “That’s not just about getting a job; if you don’t have a job, start something. If you don’t have a job, go volunteer someplace. In my experience, being active and working on problems that you’re interested in—one thing leads to another.”

This idea that careers aren’t built by waiting for someone to tell you what to do is exactly the message Kempczinski wanted to send to Gen Z. Staying curious and being willing to step through doors before you know exactly where they lead is often the key to long-term success.





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IBM, AWS veteran says 90% of your employees are stuck in first gear with AI, just asking it to ‘write their mean email in a slightly more polite way’

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Employers are shelling out millions on artificial intelligence (AI) tools to boost productivity, but workers are still getting stuck using a tiny fraction of the tech’s potential, according to a presentation from a top executive in the space who advises Fortune 500 companies on strategy and tech adoption.

Allie K. Miller, the CEO of Open Machine, addressed the Fortune Brainstorm AI conference last week in San Francisco. Speaking from decades of experience at companies including IBM and Amazon Web Services (AWS), she argued that AI actually has four different, increasingly useful interaction modes. Miller, who helped launch the first multimodal AI team at IBM, said that AI can be a microtasker, companion, delegate, or a teammate, depending on the desired outcome. 

The problem, Miller said, is that most users never get beyond the first mode, using AI as a “microtasker,” basically a glorified search engine, returning results for simple queries.

Her central critique focused on the rudimentary way that most employees interact with Large Language Models (LLMs). While traditional software (“Software 1.0”) required exact inputs to get exact outputs, AI allows for reasoning and adaptation. Mistaking the former for the latter adds up to a waste of your annual ChatGPT, Gemini, or other subscription, she argued.

“Ninety percent of your employees are stuck in this mode. And so many employees think that they are an AI super user when all they are doing is asking AI to write their mean email in a slightly more polite way,” Miller said.

This roadblock is holding companies back from true productivity gains, added Miller. 

“Your annual subscriptions are made worthless because people are stuck in this mode,” she said, implicitly encouraging organizations to rethink their AI investment budgets.

Miller’s ideas are backed with data. According to a November study from software company Cornerstone OnDemand, there is an increasingly split “shadow AI economy” thriving beneath the surface of corporate America. The study found that 80% of employees are using AI at work, yet fewer than half had received proper AI training. 

To unlock the actual value of enterprise AI, Miller’s presentation outlined a shift toward three more advanced modes: “Companion,” “Delegate,” and the most critical evolution, “AI as a Teammate.”

By using AI through this interaction mode, the tech serves not as a reactive answer provider, but rather a collaborative partner that could be sitting in on meetings, fielding questions, as well as taking actions. Engineers at OpenAI are already doing this by incorporating the company’s software engineering agent Codex into Slack and treating it essentially as a coworker, she added.

While a “Delegate” might handle a 40-minute task like managing an inbox, the “Teammate” mode represents a fundamental shift in infrastructure. In this mode, AI is not transactional but ambient, “lifting up a system or a group and not the individual.” Miller predicted a near-future inversion of the current workflow: “We will no longer be prompting AI … AI will be prompting us because it will be in our systems and helping our team as a whole.”

But even for non-AI companies, incorporating the technology in this way essentially makes it the foundation of the business tasks employees complete daily, making it more of a productivity booster than a stand-alone curiosity for trivia questions.

“The big difference for AI as a teammate is that AI is lifting up a system or a group and not the individual,” she added.

To bridge the gap between rewriting emails and deploying autonomous systems, the speaker introduced the concept of “Minimum Viable Autonomy” (MVA), a spin on the old product-design principle of minimum viable product, or most market-ready prototype. This approach encourages leaders to stop treating AI like a chatbot requiring “perfect 18-page prompts” and start treating it as goal-oriented software.

“We are no longer giving step-by-step perfect instructions … we are going to provide goals and boundaries and rules and AI systems are going to work from the goal backwards,” the speaker explained.

To operationalize this safely, the forecast suggested implementing “agent protocols”—strict guidelines that group tasks into categories: “always do,” “please ask first,” and “never do.” The speaker recommended a risk distribution portfolio for these agents: 70% on low-risk tasks, 20% on complex cross-department tasks, and 10% on strategic tasks that fundamentally change organizational structure.

The Warning for the Next Decade

The presentation concluded with aggressive predictions for the immediate future. The speaker forecasted that within months, AI will be capable of working autonomously for over eight hours uninterrupted. Furthermore, as costs drop, companies will move from single queries to running hundreds of thousands of simulations for every market launch.

However, these advancements come with a caveat for legacy-minded leadership. The veteran closed with a reminder that evaluating whether AI is “good or not” is the new essential product requirement.

“AI is not just a tool,” Miller concluded, “and the organizations who continue to treat it like one are going to wonder over the next decade what happened.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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