There is now very little room for subtext or doubt. Relations between the U.S. and Russia will include “enormous economic deals” as part of the broader normalization of diplomatic affairs between Moscow and Washington.
That optimistic phrase, turbocharged by the expression “huge upside,” was part of the White House’s summary of Tuesday’s call between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.
What started as a suggestion—would U.S. sanctions relief be on the table if Trump helped resolve the war on Ukraine?—is now a megaphone-strength alert. A stable conclusion to hostilities, whether a cease-fire or a more elaborate peace agreement, would bring an end to the Russia’s economic isolation.
To be clear, this move is further off than suggested in a breathy White House readout of the two-hour call between Trump and Putin. And the U.S. is not the only country punishing Russia politically and economically. But this is the clearest statement we have yet on Washington’s intentions. More than a few U.S. companies will take this message and run with it.
The business community began to imagine a world without sanctions on Russia when Trump won the November 2024 elections. He campaigned on ending the war in Ukraine, triggering questions about the longevity of sanctions imposed following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. History shows that sanctions are easy to enact and then notoriously sticky. The U.S. has been sanctioning Cuba since 1962.
But Trump’s campaign pledge is gaining a certain amount of momentum. Talks to end the war began in earnest with a phone call between Trump and Putin in February. Shortly after that, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met in Riyadh. As they departed the talks, they made a public nod to broader commercial engagement between the two countries.
Each of those moves intensified debate among U.S. companies that left Russia three years ago. Should we go back? Some businesses are having the conversation.
Hundreds of Western companies, including some of the U.S.’s most prominent brands, left Russia following the start of the full-scale invasion. Some left because sanctions made it illegal for them to do business there. Others left because their shareholders, customers, or employees wouldn’t support doing business in or with an aggressor nation. Wide public campaigns to name and shame Western companies in Russia helped focus the minds of executives in the U.S. and around the world.
Tuesday’s Trump-Putin dialogue will intensify deliberations inside U.S. companies. For some of them, sanctions relief is the sole green light they need to go back to Russia. But an end of sanctions is not the end of the discussion. It should be the beginning.
As Tuesday’s call showed, Putin is in no hurry to end the war. His strategic goal remains fully disabling Ukrainian sovereignty. As Trump and Putin negotiate an “unconditional cease-fire,” Putin only adds conditions. These talks will not end soon.
If and when they do, companies thinking of returning to Russia will find a country dramatically different from the one they left. The war on Ukraine has lasted longer than anyone predicted—long enough to see a number of important transformations on the ground in Russia.
Among those changes is the emergence of a new business elite now in possession not only of considerable political favor, but also of several Western assets sold or otherwise “reallocated” away from their former owners. Sure, some U.S. companies inserted buy-back clauses into their exits from Russia, but it is worth questioning the durability of those agreements.
The marketplace has changed, too. While the West was away, companies from non-sanctioning countries came to play. Russian car dealerships once offering sparkling new Volkswagens and Toyotas, among others, are now selling flashy Chinese models.
The law on the ground in Russia has changed, too. Intellectual property law, for example, has been eviscerated. Russian pharmaceutical companies now have government licenses to produce semaglutide injections, in complete contravention to Novo Nordisk’s patents on the drug.
Novo Nordisk is, of course, a Danish company, and relations between Europe and Russia remain hostile. This raises another complication: If the U.S. is determined to lift sanctions but Europe remains, for now, in punishment mode, how will companies navigate an asymmetrical sanctions environment? EU sanctions could, of course tumble too. They depend on periodic, unanimous renewal votes.
Finally, the U.S. business community will want to know whether Trump’s ambitious forecast for normalcy with Russia will include a backstop. Political risk insurance for companies returning to Russia will be astronomically expensive, if it is available at all. Will the White House act as an insurer of last resort, and throw its political weight behind U.S. companies if conditions once again deteriorate?
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