By: Matthew Weatherby

I’ll be frank. James Madison would have to walk a tightrope the size of a human hair to win this game. They have next to no shot, and it’s not a knock or disrespectful; it’s just the truth. With that being said, I did say that they had NEXT to no shot. So, what would the Dukes have to do to get the job done in Eugene Saturday night?

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James Madison’s Path

I went thumbing through stats yesterday in search of James Madison’s path to win this game. I didn’t come up with much, but I did find a few stats with a strong correlation that could lead to a Dukes win. It all starts with game control.

Time of Possession. It’s not always the flashiest of stats, but it is a solid indicator of game control. James Madison ranks second in the country in time of possession. While Oregon ranks 39th in the country in time of possession. It is a substantial enough gap between the two to deem it relevant. That then begs the question: James Madison controls the game, but how do they do it?

They’ve controlled the game through the ground game on both sides of the ball. They are 5th in the country in rushing offense and second in the country in terms of their rushing defense. Compared to Oregon’s 14th-ranked rushing offense and 20th-ranked rushing defense. Again a somewhat substantial gap in terms of their season-long statistics that I deem to be relevant.

The problem for James Madison is the fact that Oregon is not a team like Troy (who just lost to Jacksonville State by the way); they will not have a talent advantage over Oregon. So if they follow that script exactly, they will still need a couple of “bounce of the ball” plays to go their way and allow them to steal some possessions.

To make a long story short, James Madison has to cut down on how long Oregon has the ball and how many possessions they have overall. If James Madison were to win this game, it would look something similar to Louisville’s week 8 win over Miami, where the Cardinals were able to cut down on Miami’s possessions.

But that won’t happen…

Why Oregon is going to roll

Talked about how James Madison needs turnovers in order to win this game, and Oregon is tied for 18th in the country in turnover margin. Meanwhile, James Madison is 76th in the country in margin. I called James Madison’s path thinner than a tightrope because of not only that, but the outside factors play heavily against them.

They are going to travel roughly 2,800 miles to Eugene. If you think that is easy, ask the Big 10 teams how easy those West Coast trips are. Not to mention Autzen Stadium is LOUD. Oh, plus Oregon is getting healthier and has its full attention on James Madison. There are zero outside factors that favor the Dukes.

Oh, but what about Oregon’s Coordinators? They are leaving to take different jobs. Yeah, so is James Madison’s Head Coach, Bob Chesney.

Oregon actually is not that much larger on the lines of scrimmage, like I had expected. But, they have more depth on the lines and more speed at the skill positions.

Closing Statement + Lines

In a way, I feel bad for James Madison. If they had gotten Ole Miss, some of those outside factors would have shifted. Plus, their game script would be a lot more successful against Ole Miss’s defense. But they didn’t, so their Cinderella dies in Eugene on Saturday night.

Line: Oregon -21, JMU +1100 on the moneyline

Over/Under: 47.5

Owners say one thing and do another.

The owner of Major League Baseball’s Baltimore Orioles franchise, David Rubenstein, had to approve Pete Alonso’s five-year, $155 million contract. No owner would allow an underling to hand out a contract at that kind of money. A team’s general manager can give out rookie contracts without an owner’s approval as that is standard working conditions for both a club official and a rookie. But the odd thing about Rubenstein handing out the deal to Alonso is this. In 2025 David Rubenstein, the new owner of the Baltimore Orioles franchise, was singing off of the same sheet music as owners who have been around the industry for a long time. MLB needed some sort of cost certainty model.

About a year ago, only five months into his tenure as an owner, Rubenstein sounded a lot like the Chicago White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf.  “I wish it would be the case that we would have a salary cap in baseball the way other sports do, and maybe eventually we will, but we don’t have that now,” Rubenstein told Yahoo Finance during the World Economic Forum. “I suspect we’ll probably have something closer to what the NFL and the NBA have, but there’s no guarantee of that.” Reinsdorf has been an advocate of some sort of salary cap or cost certainty for more than four decades however Reinsdorf proved to be a hypocrite when he signed Albert Belle five-year, $55 million contract in November 1996. Reinsdorf was an architect of the 1994 Major League Baseball strike as one of the hardline owners that included the Minnesota Twins owner Carl Pohlad and the officers of the Chicago Tribune Company that owned the Chicago Cubs franchise who pushed for a salary cap. Reinsdorf then handed out a huge contract to Belle. Owners say one thing and do the opposite.

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Pete Alonso

Unlike last year’s debut of the 12-team College Football Playoff, weather should not be a factor in any of the first-round games this weekend. Southeastern Conference powers Oklahoma, Mississippi, and Texas A&M, along with Oregon from the Big Ten’s West Coast contingent, are hosting.

The forecast for Friday night’s Alabama-Oklahoma clash calls for temperatures in the 50s with some wind. Saturday’s slate looks ideal: sunny and in the 70s for Miami-Texas A&M, mid-60s and clear for Tulane-Mississippi, and mid-40s with a chance of rain for James Madison-Oregon.

No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma – ESPN/ABC

The Sooners enter as slight favorites (minus 1 ½). They beat Alabama 23-21 on the road five weeks ago despite being outgained 406-212. The difference was Eli Bowen’s 87-yard pick-six and two other takeaways. If Oklahoma plays clean offensively and their defense contains Alabama’s run game — much like Georgia did in the SEC Championship — the Sooners could punch their ticket to the Rose Bowl to face No. 1 Indiana.

No. 10 Miami at No. 7 Texas A&M – ESPN/ABC

This matchup may be decided in the trenches. Miami boasts AP All-America tackle Francis Mauigoa, anchoring a line that has allowed just 11 sacks. Texas A&M counters with All-American edge rusher Cashius Howell, leading a front four that has produced 41 sacks, tops in the nation. The Aggies are favored by 3 ½, but Miami’s offensive line could tilt the balance.

No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Mississippi – TNT/HBO Max

Mississippi, favored by 17 ½, already beat Tulane 45-10 in September. The storyline now is transition: Lane Kiffin departed three weeks ago, leaving the Rebels under interim leadership. Tulane faces its own coaching change, with Jon Sumrall bound for Florida after the playoff. Expect QB Jake Retzlaff to perform better than in the first meeting, though the Rebels remain heavy favorites.

No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon – TNT/HBO Max

The Sun Belt champion Dukes earned their spot after Duke upset Virginia in the ACC title game. Under departing coach Bob Chesney, James Madison has overachieved but faces a steep challenge. Oregon, favored by 20 ½, was the unbeaten No. 1 seed last year before being blown out by Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. This time, a home first-round game should be no problem for the Ducks.

Broadcast Information

All four games will be televised nationally on ESPN and ABC, with kickoff coverage beginning Friday night at 8 p.m. ET for Alabama-Oklahoma. Saturday’s tripleheader starts at noon ET starts on ABC/ESPN with Miami-Texas A&M, followed by two games on TNT and streaming on HBO MAX as Tulane faces Mississippi at 4 p.m. ET, and James Madison travels to Oregon at 8 p.m. ET.

Radio broadcasts will be carried by ESPN Radio affiliates nationwide, ensuring fans can follow every snap whether at home or on the road.

The Road Ahead

The winners advance to the quarterfinals, with the Rose Bowl and other New Year’s Six venues hosting marquee matchups. With favorable weather, star players intact, and national broadcast coverage, the 2025 College Football Playoff promises drama and clarity in its second year of expanded competition.