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The stock markets have bought the Fed rumors — watch for them to sell on the news

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The S&P 500 hit a new record high yesterday, up 0.47% to 6,615.28. Futures contracts on the index are up 0.21% this morning.

The optimism is being driven by baked-in expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will deliver a 0.25% interest rate cut tomorrow. The cliché here is that the markets appear to have bought on the rumour of the cut, and once Chairman Jerome Powell delivers it, will lock in those profits by selling on the news. CME’s Fed Funds futures market—usually an accurate predictor— says there is a 96.1% chance of the Fed delivering a 25bps cut to the 4% level on Wednesday.

The Fed is likely to cut by 25 bps and not 50 because central banks like to keep their weapons in reserve for the future. The faster you shoot your bullets, the more quickly you run out of bullets, basically.

Goldman Sachs called this “peak Goldilocks” for stocks in a note to clients this morning. “Markets continued a broad ‘risk-on’ shift last week, boosted by the rally in Oracle following their bullish cloud revenue revisions, which supported the broader AI space. US inflation data was broadly in-line with expectations with a modest uptick in initial jobless claims, further supporting the Goldilocks backdrop, where a weak US labour market and anchored inflation allow for Fed easing,” the bank’s Christian Mueller-Glissmann and team wrote.

So the meeting will be boringly predictable, right?

Nope. 

It will be tense. Chair Powell and Governor Lisa Cook have both been accused of criminal behaviour by the Trump Administration. They will be sitting across the table from Stephen Miran, a newly appointed Fed Governor parachuted into the Federal Open Markets Committee by President Trump, who wants to pressure the central bank to cut rates fast. God knows what they will say to each other during the coffee breaks.

Markets will move on Wednesday after Wall Street parses Cook’s statement and his Q&A for clues about future rate cuts beyond Wednesday. Here’s what analysts are saying about that:

“A 25bp rate cut is fully priced in, with a slim chance of a larger 50bp move following recent signs of labor market cooling. Investors will focus on the Fed’s updated macro projections – especially the rate path – with expectations leaning toward continued easing through year-end. The vote split will also be closely watched, as a three-way division among FOMC members hasn’t occurred since 2019,” Convera’s George Vessey told clients.

“If Chair Powell repeats the cautious guidance from his speech at Jackson Hole in August, markets could abruptly reprice their aggressive pre-meeting rate cut expectations,” said Bill Adams, Chief Economist for Comerica Bank.

“The market reaction is likely to be driven by the communication, the updated dot plot, and any comments from Chair Powell on the conditions required for further rate cuts.” David Doyle, head of economics at Macquarie Group said.

In all these potential scenarios the Fed is expected to continue delivering new rounds of cheaper money in the future—and that will be bullish for stocks. There’s only one thing going down in all of this: lower interest rates on the dollar sank the currency to its lowest point year-to-date. The USD lost 0.87% of its value on the DXY index in the last month—that’s a lot for a currency. It has lost 10.56% year-to-date.

Here’s a snapshot of the markets globally this morning:

  • S&P 500 futures were up 0.19% this morning. The index closed up 0.47% in its last trading session.
  • STOXX Europe 600 was down 0.26% in early trading. 
  • The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was down 0.28% in early trading.
  • Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 0.3%.
  • China’s CSI 300 was down 0.21%. 
  • The South Korea KOSPI was up 1.24%.
  • India’s Nifty 50 was up 0.68% before the end of the session.
  • Bitcoin rose to $115.7K.
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32-year-old’s death on Universal roller coaster was accidental despite deep forehead gash, investigation finds

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The death of a 32-year-old man after riding a high-speed roller coaster at the Universal Epic Universe theme park was accidental, and an investigation has been closed, according to a Florida sheriff’s office report released this week.

Meanwhile, a medical examiner’s report released Friday showed that the left side of Kevin Rodriguez Zavala’s forehead had a deep gash, and the bony ridge above his eye was fractured. He had bleeding above his skull, bruises on his abdomen and arms, and his nose and right thigh bone were fractured, the medical examiner’s report said.

The medical examiner in Orlando previously had ruled the death an accident, saying Zavala died of blunt-impact injuries. The investigative report by the Orange County Sheriff’s Office in Orlando said that workers at Epic Universe followed procedures and weren’t careless or neglectful.

Epic Universe is the newest theme park at Universal Orlando Resort.

Security video showed Zavala “engaged and well” at the start of the ride but unresponsive and slouched over in his seat at the end, according to the sheriff’s office report.

When the ride came to a stop, Zavala was bleeding from the face, and his body was slumped over, according to witnesses.

Anna Marshall, a medical doctor who was standing in line to board the ride, said Zavala was slouched over and surrounded by blood when the coaster returned to the boarding platform. His arm was hanging over the ride, and his thigh bone was broken in half and resting on the back of the ride chair, she told investigators.

Zavala used a wheelchair. As Marshall rendered aid, Zavala’s girlfriend, Javiliz Cruz-Robles, who was beside him on the ride, told the doctor that he had metal rods in his back from a previous spinal surgery.

“Dr. Marshall explained that she did not believe that just because Kevin Rodriguez-Zavala didn’t have use of his legs that that was the sole reason why this occurred,” the report said.

Zavala’s family said the condition leading to his disability, which they described as spinal cord atrophy, didn’t cause his death on Sept. 17. The media office for attorney Ben Crump, who is representing Zavala’s family, didn’t return an emailed inquiry about the sheriff’s office report on Friday.

Zavala had severe facial trauma when the ride stopped. He was still secured in his ride seat by a lap bar, which ride operators had difficulty releasing for 10 minutes, Universal paramedic Sebastian Torres told sheriff’s office investigators.

“’The guest was stuck on the ride vehicle face down, falling out of his seat, with legs inverted,’” Torres wrote in a statement included in the report.

Cruz-Robles told investigators that a ride operator had to push Zavala’s lap restraint down several times before it was safely in place when they first got on the ride, and she thought the restraint bar was positioned too low on their laps. When the coaster began the first downward movement, she said Zavala flew forward and hit his head on the restraint bar. During the ride Zavala hit his head several times more, and Cruz-Robles said she tried but was unable to hold him back.

“Javiliz was crying for help, but due to being in the middle of the ride, no one heard her screaming for help until the train cart was getting close to the station,” the report said.

The sheriff’s office report noted there were warning signs posted at the ride’s entrance telling patrons about sudden drops and accelerations. The signs said guests shouldn’t go on the ride with certain conditions, including “back, neck or similar physical conditions,” or if they’ve had recent surgeries or conditions that could be aggravated by the ride.

Zavala’s parents told investigators that their son had previously fractured a thigh bone that required surgery in 2020 and had a hip dislocation that required surgery in 2010.

The dual-launch coaster reaches speeds up to 62 mph (100 kph) and debuted officially in May when Universal Orlando Resort’s newest theme park opened to the public.



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Michigan mystery revealed: Fired football coach had broken into a lover’s apartment and threatened to kill himself when their affair ended

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Fired University of Michigan football coach Sherrone Moore broke into the apartment of a woman with whom he had been having an affair and threatened to kill himself after she reported the relationship to the school and he lost his job, prosecutors said Friday.

Moore was charged with three crimes, including home invasion and stalking.

As he watched by video from jail, authorities laid out extraordinary allegations against Moore and provided details that answered a key question: What led Michigan to suddenly oust the 39-year-old coach Wednesday after his second season at the helm of the storied football program?

Moore and the woman had been having an affair “for a number of years” before she ended the relationship Monday, said Kati Rezmierski, Washtenaw County first assistant prosecutor.

Moore repeatedly called the woman and texted her, but she refused to respond, Rezmierski said.

“Eventually she presented herself to the University of Michigan. Cooperated in some form of an investigation. As we all now know (Moore) was fired from his employment,” the prosecutor said.

Moore was dismissed for an inappropriate relationship with a staff member, the school said Wednesday without offering details.

After losing his job, Moore soon arrived at the woman’s apartment and “barged his way” in, Rezmierski told a judge.

“Then proceeded to a kitchen drawer, grabbed several butter knives and a pair of kitchen scissors. And began to threaten his own life,” she said.

The prosecutor quoted Moore as telling the woman: “I’m going to kill myself. I’m going to make you watch. My blood is on your hands. You’ve ruined my life.”

“She was terrorized,” Rezmierski said.

A not-guilty plea was entered on Moore’s behalf by District Court Magistrate Odetalla Odetalla. He said very little besides acknowledging the conditions of his release from jail, including no contact with the woman. Bond was set at $25,000.

The court hearing was held just 4 miles (6.4 kilometers) from Michigan Stadium where Moore, who is married and has three children, coached his last game against rival Ohio State in front of more than 100,000 fans on Nov. 29.

Defense attorney Joe Simon said Moore was taken to a hospital for a mental health evaluation after his arrest Wednesday and then returned to the jail.

He said Moore would “absolutely comply” with Odetalla’s order for an additional evaluation. Moore must wear a GPS tracking device, stay in Michigan and abstain from alcohol. The next court hearing was set for Jan. 22.

“There’s no evidence to suggest he’s a threat,” Simon said.

Moore signed a five-year contract with a base annual salary of $5.5 million last year. According to the terms of his deal, the university will not have to buy out the remaining years of his contract because he was fired for cause.

Moore, the team’s former offensive coordinator, was promoted to lead the Wolverines after they won the national title. He succeeded Jim Harbaugh, who returned to the NFL to lead the Los Angeles Chargers.

Michigan is set to play No. 14 Texas on Dec. 31 in the Citrus Bowl. Biff Poggi, who filled in for Moore when he was suspended earlier this season in relation to a Harbaugh-era sign-stealing scandal, will serve as interim coach.

While the school seeks a new head coach, the Wolverines may lose players in the transfer portal this winter and donors who help fund revenue-sharing and NIL deals may hesitate to invest in the winningest program in college football history.

___

EDITOR’S NOTE — This story includes discussion of suicide. If you or someone you know needs help, the national suicide and crisis lifeline in the U.S. is available by calling or texting 988. There is also an online chat at 988lifeline.org



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House Democrats release new Epstein photos including Trump, Clinton, Prince Andrew

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House Democrats released a selection of photos from the estate of Jeffrey Epstein on Friday, including some of Donald Trump, Bill Clinton and the former Prince Andrew.

The 19 photos released by Democratic lawmakers on the House Oversight Committee were a small part of more than 95,000 they received from the estate of Epstein, who died in a New York jail cell in 2019 while awaiting trial on sex trafficking charges. The photos released Friday were separate from the case files that the Department of Justice is now under compulsion to release, but anticipation is growing as the Trump administration faces a deadline next week to produce the Epstein files that have been the source of conspiracy theories and speculation for years.

The photos were released without captions or context and included a black-and-white image of Trump alongside six women whose faces were blacked out.

Rep. Robert Garcia, the top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee, did not say whether any of the women in the photos was a victim of abuse, but he added, “Our commitment from day one has been to redact any photo, any information that could lead to any sort of harm to any of the victims.”

White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson accused Democrats of “selectively releasing cherry-picked photos with random redactions to try and create a false narrative” and called it part of a “Democrat hoax against President Trump.”

Many of the photos have already circulated in the public. Democrats pledged to continue to release photos in the days and weeks ahead, as they look to pressure Trump over his Republican administration’s earlier refusal to release documents in the Epstein probe. Garcia said that his staff had looked through about a quarter of the images it had received from Epstein’s estate, which included photos that were sent to him or that he had in his possession.

“Donald Trump right now needs to release the files to the American public so that the truth can come out and we can actually get some sense of justice for the survivors,” Garcia added.

Trump, once a close friend of Epstein, has said that he parted ways with him long before he faced the sex trafficking charges. Clinton, too, has minimized his relationship with Epstein, acknowledging that he traveled on Epstein’s private jet but saying through a spokesperson that he had no knowledge of the late financier’s crimes. Clinton also has never been accused of misconduct by Epstein’s known victims. However, Republicans on the House committee are pushing him and Hillary Clinton to testify in their investigation.

A spokesperson for the Republican-controlled committee also said that nothing in the documents the committee has received shows “any wrongdoing” by Trump.

Andrew lost his royal titles and privileges this year amid new revelations of his ties to Epstein, though he has denied wrongdoing.

The photo release also included images of the right-wing political operative Steven Bannon, billionaires Richard Branson and Bill Gates, filmmaker Woody Allen, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers and law professor Alan Dershowitz. The men have denied any wrongdoing in their associations with Epstein, who kept many high-profile figures in his circle of friends.

Amid an earlier release of emails between Summers and Epstein, Summers stepped away from his teaching position at Harvard University and faced other fallout to his standing in academic circles.

Allen has faced allegations from his adopted daughter, Dylan Farrow, of molesting her as a child. He has denied the allegations.

Some lawmakers, however, believe that other high-powered figures could be implicated in Epstein’s abuse if the full case files from the Justice Department are released.

Rep. Thomas Massie, a Kentucky Republican who was instrumental in passing a bill to require the public release of the files, said it was a good sign that the Department of Justice has sought to have grand jury material released from several courts.

“The grand jury material is just a small fraction of what the DOJ needs to release, because the FBI and DOJ probably has evidence that they chose not to take to the grand jury because the evidence they’re in possession of would implicate other people, not Epstein or Maxwell,” he said.



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