The scars of the Iraq War run deep in Europe. At the time, France, led by President Jacques Chirac, could not countenance supporting an attack on Saddam Hussein, given the weak evidence for either weapons of mass destruction or a link to the horrors of 9/11. When the Spanish prime minister, Jose Maria Aznar, agreed to back President George W. Bush there was a popular backlash. Tony Blair, the then U.K. leader, still suffers under the “Bliar” tag.
In America, there might be bafflement that European leaders are not fully behind the actions of President Donald Trump and the attack on Iran in alliance with Israel. In war you stick with your allies. A grotesque dictator has been removed. There is a chance—slim maybe—that Iran will see a more positive future.
In 2003, Blair said there was no option but to stand “shoulder to shoulder” with the U.S. Many in Europe agreed—in 2000, 82% of Britons and 62% of the French were “favorable” towards the US. The Western global agreement was strong, politically and economically. America had secured western Europe after the Second World War and there was much to be grateful for. Trade flowed between the two power blocs of the world.
History and populations have changed. Younger voters know far less of either the Second World War or the Cold War. The U.S. is now seen “unfavorably” in Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Spain, according to YouGov, a polling company.
European leaders see a 21st century where America, personified by its president, has taken a different route away from the post-war settlement. At the World Economic Forum in Davos this January, the tension between the US and Europe was palpable.
“I have been coming to the World Economic Forum for 16 years,” I wrote from the Alps. “I have never seen such a crisis in U.S./Europe relations.” Ursula Von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, said that the “old order” was dead. “Europe needs to adjust to the new security architecture and realities that we are now facing,” she said.
We are seeing that warning play out. Trump has made threats of trade embargoes and economic pain to those who do not support military action without compromise. Europe, with a total economy totaling $27 trillion, has shrugged rather than panicked. At the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, from where I am writing this column, Huawei, the Chinese technology supplier, has a bigger pavilion than Google. Europe believes it can make its economic way without US largesse.
Economic confidence is bringing diplomatic boldness. Pedro Sanchez, the Spanish prime minister, has followed Mark Carney’s lead and laid out plans for new global order not dominated by America.
“It is absolutely unacceptable that those leaders who are incapable of fulfilling this duty [to protect and improve the lives of citizens] use the smokescreen of war to hide their failure and, in the process, line the pockets of a select few—the same ones as always; the only ones who profit when the world stops building hospitals and starts building missiles,” he said.
“It is naive to believe that democracies or respect between nations can spring from ruins. Or to think that practicing blind and servile obedience is a form of leadership… We will not be complicit in something that is bad for the world and that is also contrary to our values and interests, simply out of fear of reprisals from someone.”
For Sanchez, Pax Americana is over.
How to respond if you run a global company? Business leaders are a pragmatic bunch. When the facts change, so do they. One senior chief executive I spoke to at MWC said that Europe needed to maintain stability rather than add to global risks. If that means splitting more aggressively with the US, so be it. “If you are an airline outside the Gulf, for example, this is all good news,” he said waspishly. Technology security firms based outside of America are hopeful of new deals as non-US businesses look for new partners that can help them expand east, not west. In a multi-polar world, everyone has more than one customer.
Risks abound. America is still the world’s greatest power. International conflict brings death, displacement, and economic consequences. But this is indeed a new century. Europe will have to reset its attitude to defense and spend far more. State support for feather-bedded populations will need to change. New world orders mean hard work.
Europe has made a calculation. Voters are now more negative than they are positive about the U.S. Trump will not last forever. Maybe America will rediscover the value of a global world order which has boosted its economy beyond all compare. But if it doesn’t then the message is clear. Europe will make an effort—stuttering maybe—to stand on its own two feet.
