Business

The next ‘golden age’ of AI investment

Published

3 weeks ago

October 30, 2025

Fortune just wrapped up its Global Forum in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, which hosted business and finance leaders to discuss a range of business topics, including—unsurprisingly—the future of artificial intelligence. Speakers included major names such as Qualcomm’s Cristiano Amon, Bridgewater Associates’ Ray Dalio, and Citi’s Jane Fraser, with almost every conversation managing to work some aspect of how AI is reshaping industries.

What caught my eye was Andreessen Horowitz’s partner Anjney Midha sharing his perspective on where, amid an explosion of AI startups and simmering fears of a potential bubble, the next wave of investment opportunity might lie. Midha said the new “golden age” of investment opportunities would come in an “explosion of new frontier teams.”

“It was very popular two or three years ago to say there’s only going to be three or four labs and teams that are going to do any real training…and startups will be left to pick the pieces up of tiny niche opportunities here and there,” he said.

But reasoning models have changed the game, Midha said, referring to the new generation of AI systems designed to “reason” problems step by step, mimicking logic and reflection rather than predicting the next word in a sequence. These models can evaluate their own outputs better, break complex tasks into sub-tasks, and learn from feedback, potentially bringing AI closer to complex, real-world problem-solving.

“Reinforcement learning as a new paradigm is working so extraordinarily well, especially on mission-critical problems,” Midha said. “If you can define the reward model correctly, which startups are really good at doing when they embed themselves inside an industry—they go deep, they go vertical, and they end up understanding the customer’s problem end to end—you can build entirely new, multibillion-dollar companies doing full end-to-end reinforcement learning for each industry.”

During the same panel, Midha also expressed concerns about China’s growing dominance in the open-source AI space, calling the technology “China’s game right now,” something that could pose challenges for the U.S. and its allies. He said Western labs were scrambling to catch up, predicting this scramble would result in a wave of open-weight models from U.S. companies.

Despite some of the ongoing debate about an AI industry bubble, the investment surge doesn’t appear to be cooling off.

According to recent data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, venture capital investment in generative AI has surged to unprecedented levels in 2025, with total funding on pace to more than double from last year. Investors have poured more than $73.6 billion into GenAI application startups in the first three quarters of the year, bringing total investment across the GenAI and broader AI ecosystem to $110.17 billion this year. That figure represents an eightfold increase since 2019.

Much of this capital has flowed to large foundation model providers such as OpenAI, Anthropic, and Mistral AI, which continue to command multibillion-dollar rounds and soaring valuations. OpenAI’s $40 billion funding earlier this year remains the single largest deal, while Anthropic’s $13 billion round and Mistral’s €1.7 billion Series C underline the dominance of a handful of major players.

In other news: Fortune’s Cyber 60 list is out! The annual list, created in partnership with Lightspeed Venture Partners, ranks the most promising startups in the cyber security sector. This year’s list has lots of new names developing innovative tools to defend against AI threats, while some of the existing heavy hitters on the list have raised more capital and built out their rosters of customers. Check out the Cyber 60 list here.

Correction: Yesterday’s newsletter mistakenly said that Figma listed its shares on the Nasdaq, when of course, its IPO was on the NYSE. We regret the error.

Beatrice Nolan
X: @beafreyanolan
Email: bea.nolan@fortune.com

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Joey Abrams curated the deals section of today’s newsletter. Subscribe here.

VENTURE DEALS

– Fruitist, a Century City, Calif. And San Isidro, Argentina-based superfruit snack brand, raised $150 million in funding. J.P. Morgan Asset Management led the round and was joined by others.

– Frontline Wildfire Defense, a San Francisco-based wildfire defense company, raised $48 million in Series A funding. Norwest led the round.

– Recess, a Los Angeles, Calif. and New York City-based developer of non-alcoholic beverages designed for relaxation, raised $30 million in Series B funding. CAVU Consumer Partners led the round and was joined by Rocana, Midnight Ventures, Torch Capital, and others.

– Reflectiz, a Boston, Mass.-based AI-powered website security company, raised $22 million in Series B funding. Fulcrum Equity Partners led the round and was joined by Capri Ventures, YYM Ventures, AFG Partners, and others.

– Kaizen, a New York City-based developer of software designed for public services, raised $21 million in Series A funding. NEA led the round and was joined by 776, Accel, Andreessen Horowitz, and Carpenter Capital.

– Arya Health, a New York City-based platform designed to automate scheduling, compliance, and other processes for home health and post-acute care providers, raised $18.2 million in Series A funding. ACME Capital led the round and was joined by Ridge Ventures, Twelve Below, and others.

– Emerald AI, a Washington, D.C.-based AI-powered energy consumption platform for data centers, raised $18 million in a seed extension. Lowercarbon Capital led the round and was joined by NVIDIA, Radical Ventures, Salesforce Ventures, National Grid Partners, Amplo Ventures, Earthshot Ventures, and others.

– Sweatpals, an Austin, Texas-based in-real-life fitness platform designed to bring people together, raised $12 million in funding. Patron, a16z speedrun, and HartBeat Ventures led the round.

– Polygraf AI, an Austin, Texas-based enterprise AI security platform, raised $9.5 million in seed funding. Allegis Capital led the round and was joined by Alumni Ventures DataPower VC, Domino Ventures, and existing investors.

– CustoMED, a Ramat Gan, Israel-based platform using AI and 3D printing to generate surgical tools and implants, raised $6 million in seed funding from Longevity Venture Partners, Varana Capital, Flag Capital, and others.

– Human Health, a London, U.K.-based precision health platform, raised $5.5 million in funding from LocalGlobe, Airtree, Skip Capital, Aliavia, Scale Ventures, and angel investors.

– Marleybones, a London, U.K.-based dog food brand, raised £2.5 million ($3.3 million) in funding. TAW Ventures led the round and was joined by existing investors JamJar Investments, Active Partners, and Animal Health Angels.

PRIVATE EQUITY

– Francisco Partners agreed to take Jamf, a Minneapolis, Minn.-based Apple device management and security company for organizations, private for $2.2 billion.

– Forward Consumer Partners agreed to acquire a majority stake in Justin’s, a Boulder, Colo.-based nut butters and confections company, from Hormel Foods. Financial terms were not disclosed.

– GPT Industries, a portfolio company of Branford Castle Partners, acquired Integrated Rectifier Technologies, an Alberta, Canada-based manufacturer of transformer rectifiers and related products for the cathodic protection industry. Financial terms were not disclosed.

– Peak Toolworks, backed by Granite Creek Capital Partners and Canterbury Ventures, acquired Southern Carbide, a Shreveport, La.-based industrial tooling and sharpening company. Financial terms were not disclosed.

– Uncommon Equity acquired HopCat, a Grand Rapids, Mich.-based casual dining chain. Financial terms were not disclosed.

PEOPLE

– AE Industrial Partners, a Boca Raton, Fla.-based private equity firm, hired Chris Aguemon and Bill Strobel as Vice Presidents. Previously, Aguemon was with Arlington Capital Partners and Strobel was with Liberty Strategic Capital.

– Earlybird Health, a Berlin and Cologne, Germany-based venture capital firm, promoted Dr. Rabab Nasrallah and Dr. Christoph Massner to Partners.

– Windjammer Capital, a Newport Beach, Calif. and Waltham, Mass.-based private equity firm, hired Evan Klebe as Managing Director and Beth Lesniak as Principal. Previously, Klebe was with Beach Point Capital Management and Lesniak was with Norwest Equity Partners.

– Wing VC, a Palo Alto, Calif.-based venture capital firm, hired Sunil Potti as a Venture Partner. Previously, he served as General Manager and Vice President of Security at Google Cloud.

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Business

Bessent says Trump’s $2,000 checks would need congressional vote

Published

33 minutes ago

November 16, 2025

Jace Porter

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said President Donald Trump’s proposal to send $2,000 “dividend” payments from tariffs to US citizens would require congressional approval.

“We will see,” Bessent said on Fox News’ Sunday Morning Futures. “We need legislation for that.”

Trump, who has touted the billions raised in US tariff revenue this year, has talked about the checks as public frustration mounts over the cost of living. Speaking to reporters on Air Force One on Friday, Trump said the checks would go out sometime next year to “everybody but the rich.”

“It’s a lot of money,” he said. “But we’ve taken in a lot of money from tariffs. The tariffs allow us to give a dividend.” He added that “we’re also going to be reducing debt.”

The plan could cost the US government double what it’s projected to take in for 2025, according to one estimate. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a centrist watchdog group, estimated a preliminary $600 billion cost for the proposal, if the dividends were designed along the lines of government stimulus payments during the Covid pandemic.

Net US tariff revenue for the fiscal year through September totaled $195 billion and many economists have penciled in about $300 billion for calendar-year 2025.

Bessent said Americans should start feeling more economic relief in the beginning of next year, citing the tax cuts in Trump’s signature policy bill passed earlier this year.

“So I would expect in the first two quarters we are going to see the inflation curve bend down and the real income curve substantially accelerate,” he said.

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Business

The Coast Guard has seized a record amount of cocaine while Trump says interdiction has failed

Published

1 hour ago

November 16, 2025

Jace Porter

In justifying American military strikes on boats suspected of smuggling drugs, President Donald Trump has asserted that the longtime U.S. strategy of interdicting such vessels at sea has been a major failure.

“We’ve been doing that for 30 years,” he said last month, “and it’s been totally ineffective.”

Trump’s comments came around the same time that the U.S. Coast Guard announced it had set a record for cocaine seizures — a haul of 225 metric tons of the drug over the previous year. That milestone, however, has not dissuaded the Republican president from upending decades of U.S. counternarcotics policy.

Under Trump, the U.S. military has blown up 20 suspected drug boats, resulting in 80 deaths, in the Pacific Ocean and Caribbean Sea. Trump and other top officials have contended that such boats are being operated by narco-terrorists and cartel members with deadly drugs bound for America.

The strikes have generated international pushback from foreign leaders, human rights groups, Democrats and some Republicans who have raised concerns that the United States is engaging in extrajudicial killings that undermine its stature in the world.

Veterans of the drug war, meanwhile, say U.S. resources would be better spent doubling down on the traditional approach of interdicting drug boats, especially in the long term. That is because crews of drug boats frequently have valuable intelligence that can help authorities better target cartels and trafficking networks. Dead men, they say, tell no tales.

The Coast Guard has fought the drug war a long time

The Coast Guard for decades has interdicted small vessels suspected of smuggling illicit narcotics. Much of that work is focused on halting shipments of cocaine, most of which is produced in the jungles of Colombia.

Working with partner nations and other federal agencies — the Drug Enforcement Administration, the departments of State and Justice as well as U.S. Southern Command’s Joint Interagency Task Force-South in Key West, Florida — the aim is to inflict heavy losses on traffickers and limit the amount of drugs entering the U.S.

That campaign, by at least one measure, has never been more successful, despite constant complaints by the Coast Guard that it lacks funding to seize even more drugs.

The Coast Guard’s recent record cocaine seizure was almost 40% higher than the past decade’s annual average. The haul included 38 tons of cocaine offloaded by the cutter Hamilton when it returned from a two-month patrol. It was the largest amount confiscated by a single Coast Guard ship during a deployment, the Coast Guard reported. The interdictions have continued as part of what’s known as Operation Pacific Viper even during the federal government shutdown, with several cutters reporting major seizures last month.

In almost every case, drug smugglers have been brought to the U.S. for prosecution, and valuable information about ever-changing smuggling routes and production methods was collected — all without any loss of life and a far lower cost to American taxpayers. Experts said each missile strike is likely to cost far more than the payload of cocaine on every ship.

“The Coast Guard has extraordinary powers and authorities to do effective drug interdiction without killing unidentified people on small boats,” said Douglas Farah, a national security expert on Latin America and president of IBI Consultants. “When resourced, they are far more effective, sustainable and likely legal than the current Pentagon-led operations.”

Trump administration officials say strategy needed to change

Secretary of State Marco Rubio this week defended the shift in strategy, saying that “interdictions alone are not effective.”

“Interdictions have limited to no deterrent effect,” he added. “These drug organizations, they’ve already baked in the fact they may lose 5% of their drug shipments. It doesn’t stop them from coming.”

Part of the problem is that demand for cocaine is high, and supplies have never been so robust, according to authorities and experts. A sign of that trend: Cocaine prices have been hovering at historical lows for more than a decade.

The Coast Guard also does not have enough vessels or crew to halt it all. At most, it seizes not even 10% of the cocaine that officials believe flows to the U.S. on small vessels through what is known as the “Transit Zone” — a vast area of open water larger than Russia.

Cocaine shipments bound for the U.S. primarily work their way up the west coast of South America to Central America and then overland into the U.S. via Mexico. Shipments heading to Europe are smuggled through the Caribbean, often hidden in container ships.

Such interdiction efforts target cocaine, not fentanyl

In social media posts, Trump has claimed that his strikes have blown up boats carrying fentanyl and that each destroyed vessel has saved 25,000 American lives. According to experts and former U.S. counternarcotics officials, Trump’s statements are either exaggerations or false.

For the past decade, U.S. officials have sounded the alarm about rising overdose deaths in the U.S., particularly from opioids and synthetic opioids. Overdose deaths from opioidspeaked in 2023 at 112,000 but dropped to 74,000 in April. Experts have attributed that decline mostly to Biden administration efforts to boost the availability of lifesaving drugs that prevent overdose deaths.

The drug flowing to the U.S. from South America is cocaine. Fentanyl, on the other hand, is typically trafficked to the U.S. overland from Mexico, where it is produced with chemicals imported from China and India. Cocaine overdose deaths are less frequent than those from fentanyl. In the last year, just under 20,000 people in America died from cocaine overdoses, federal data shows.

Trump and administration officials have also claimed that the crews of targeted vessels were narco-terrorists or members of cartels.

The Associated Press visited a region in Venezuela from which some of the suspected boats have departed and identified four men who were killed in the strikes. In dozens of interviews, residents of the region and relatives said t he dead men were mostly laborers or fisherman making $500 a trip.

Law enforcement officials and experts echoed those findings, saying the smugglers captured by the Coast Guard are hired for little money to ferry drugs from point A to point B.

“They are hardly kingpins,” said Kendra McSweeney, an Ohio State University geographer who has spent years researching U.S. drug policies.

Trump administration officials recently promoted big seizures

In April, months before Trump launched his military campaign, his attorney general, Pam Bondi, traveled to South Florida to welcome home the Coast Guard cutter James from its latest antinarcotics patrol. It had seized 20 tons of cocaine worth more than $500 million.

Flanked by FBI Director Kash Patel, she praised a “prosecutor-led, intelligence driven approach to stopping these criminal enterprises in their tracks.”

“This is not a drop in the bucket,” said Bondi, standing in front of the vessel loaded with colorful, plastic-wrapped bales of narcotics stacked several feet high. “Behind you is half a billion dollars of pure, uncut cocaine.”

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Business

The 2026 class of American Rhodes scholars includes 5 students at U.S. military academies

Published

2 hours ago

November 16, 2025

Jace Porter

Five students at U.S. military academies and three each from Yale University, Harvard University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology are among the 32 American winners named Sunday as 2026 Rhodes scholars.

The group includes students focused on housing, health outcomes, sustainability and prison reentry programs. They include:

Alice L. Hall of Philadelphia, a varsity basketball player at MIT who also serves as student body president. Hall, who has collaborated with a women’s collective in Ghana on sustainability tools, plans to study engineering.

Sydney E. Barta of Arlington, Virginia, a Paralympian and member of the track team at Stanford University, who studies bioengineering and sings in the Stanford acapella group “Counterpoint.” Barta plans to study musculoskeletal sciences.

Anirvin Puttur of Gilbert, Arizona, a senior at the U.S. Air Force Academy who serves as an instructor pilot and flight commander. Puttur, who is studying aeronautical engineering and applied mathematics, also has a deep interest in linguistics and is proficient in four languages.

The students will attend the University of Oxford as part of the Rhodes scholar program, which awards more than 100 scholarships worldwide each year for students to pursue two to three years of graduate studies.

Named after British imperialist and benefactor Cecil John Rhodes, the scholarship was established at Oxford in 1903. The program has more than 8,000 alumni, many of whom have pursued careers in government, education, the arts and social justice.

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