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The housing market now has more ‘downside risks’: layoffs from DOGE and the trade war

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  • Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok said layoffs from Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency and Trump’s trade war could pose a threat to housing, which had a decent month of sales in an otherwise frozen market. A higher unemployment rate would only make matters worse.

It was a week of back-to-back housing data that revealed some positive and some negative manifestations in the market. But there is an unanticipated development to watch out for: the Department of Government Efficiency run by the richest man in the world, Elon Musk.

“Downside risks to the housing market are layoffs because of DOGE and any potential layoffs because of trade war uncertainty,” Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok told Fortune in a statement, referring to the administration’s back-and-forth tariffs. “If the unemployment rate starts to go up it would be a downside risk to housing.”

There are mass layoffs occurring in the federal government—part of Musk’s and his non-cabinet level body’s cost-cutting. A person is less likely to consider buying a home if they’ve just lost their job. 

Until now, that had not necessarily been an issue in the post-pandemic housing world. Instead, home sales are depressed because people can’t afford to buy after prices skyrocketed during the pandemic and mortgage rates followed; others aren’t selling either because they don’t want to lose their low mortgage rate. So if sales, mostly existing home sales, are already at recessionary levels and unemployment goes up, it would not be good.

DOGE and the White House press office did not respond to Fortune’s request for comment.

Layoffs would come just as there are some signals home sales could be taking a turn for the better. The data released throughout the week showed solid job and wage growth is boosting demand for housing, according to Slok. But the positive home sales numbers might not be so positive when you consider the big picture, other economists told Fortune

In February, sales of newly constructed homes rose 1.8% from a month earlier and 5.1% from a year earlier, per government data released Tuesday. Pending home sales rose 2% in February compared to a month ago but fell 3.6% compared to a year ago, per data released Thursday. 

That “suggests improved home buying activity” after January’s weak numbers, Wells Fargo Senior Economist Charles Dougherty said. “Zooming out, however, the message is that adverse affordability conditions continue to weigh significantly on the housing sector.”

Dougherty explained that the month-over-month pending home sales bounce is encouraging because it means they aren’t in free fall. But they’re still lethargic and near record lows. When it comes to new home sales, they continue to outdo existing sales because homebuilders can offer what sellers can’t: incentives such as mortgage rate buydowns. But new home sales have basically been flat over the past several months, Dougherty mentioned. 

Existing home sales data came out last week and showed sales rose 4.2% in February from January but slipped 1.2% from a year ago.

Selma Hepp, chief economist for Cotality, formerly CoreLogic, echoed Dougherty, saying that activity is low compared to historical trends, despite the slight uptick. 

Meanwhile, high home prices and mortgage rates continue to weigh on affordability and limit a housing market recovery, Sam Williamson, senior economist at First American Financial, said. Home prices rose 4.1% in January, per the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, which was reported Tuesday. This is in line with the recent trend of slower appreciation but an increase nonetheless.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate came in at 6.65% for Freddie Mac’s weekly reading Thursday, a two-basis-point drop. That is an improvement, but mortgage rates are nowhere near their pandemic rock bottom of sub-3% that people became accustomed to. The high home price, high mortgage combination has eroded affordability and that can’t be reversed because of some favorable data.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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Greece set to invest $28 billion on military shake-up. The most groundbreaking reform in the ‘history of the Greek state’

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NATO member Greece is set to unveil a massive modernisation of its armed forces on Wednesday, following the lead of several of its European allies.

Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis is expected to present the timeline to parliament, headlined with an eye-catching new anti-aircraft defence set-up called “Achilles’s Shield”.

The Mediterranean country already dedicates more than 3.0 percent of its GDP on defence — owing to decades of tension with neighbouring Turkey.

It now plans to invest approximately 26 billion euros ($28 billion) on new weapons systems by 2036, according to ministerial sources.

The Greek government has called it “the most significant reform ever undertaken in the history of the Greek state in terms of national defence.”

“Our country is protecting itself, arming itself, and strengthening itself,” government spokesman Pavlos Marinakis said last week.

Alongside Poland, Estonia and Latvia, Greece is one of the few NATO member states that allocates more than 3.0 percent of output to defence.

And this year the nation of 10.5 million has doubled its military budget to 6.13 billion euros ($6.6 billion).

“Historically, Greece has served and will continue to serve as an outpost for Europe, which is currently seeking to reorganise its defence in a difficult international setting,” said Maria Gavouneli, a professor of international law at the University of Athens.

‘Achilles’s Shield’

A key part of the shake-up is an upgrade to its anti-missile and anti-aircraft systems called “Achilles’s Shield”, according to a source familiar with the matter.

Greek media reports suggest Athens is in negotiations with Israel to acquire the shield, which also includes enhancing anti-drone systems.

France, Italy and Norway have been also cited as possible suppliers of the new weapons, which include unmanned vessels (USVs), drones and radars.

Greece has sought to strengthen its position on the EU’s Eastern Mediterranean border, close to the conflict zones of the Middle East.

A dutiful buyer of European military equipment, especially from France and Germany, Greece has always justified its arms spending by pointing to territorial disputes and threats from historic rival Turkey.

‘Necessary’ overhaul

“This reorganisation was necessary for Greece because during the economic crisis of the last decade and the freeze on public spending, the country fell behind in terms of modernising (its arsenal),” said Gavouneli, who is also the director general of the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy think-tank.

Greece has signed a military cooperation agreement with France, ordering 24 Rafale fighter jets and three Belharra-class defence and intervention frigates (FDI) for a total of more than 5.5 billion euros.

A fourth frigate will be built in Greek shipyards, offering added value to strengthen the Greek defence industry.

Athens has also signed a deal for the acquisition of 20 US-made F-35 fighter jets.

Last November, Defence Minister Nikos Dendias said Greece would order four different drone systems and overhaul its armed forces by merging military units.

Athens must cope with a “different reality” and modernise its forces quickly to meet the challenges of the 21st century and those in its relationship with Ankara, Dendias said at the time.

France, Germany, and Poland have lately announced plans to bolster their militaries at a time of faltering confidence in the US military umbrella. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has stressed that the EU must significantly increase its arms spending in the face of the threat from Russia.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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GOP wins 2 Florida special elections in Trump strongholds but by about 10 points less than in 2024

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Republicans Jimmy Patronis and Randy Fine won special elections Tuesday in two Florida congressional districts, bolstered by President Donald Trump’s endorsement to fill vacant seats in reliably Republican strongholds.

Patronis, the state’s chief financial officer, fended off a challenge from Democrat Gay Valimont even though she far outraised and outspent him. He will fill the northwest Florida 1st District seat vacated by former Rep. Matt Gaetz, who was chosen to be Trump’s attorney general but withdrew from consideration amid allegations of sexual misconduct, which he has denied.

In north Florida’s 6th District, Fine won against Democratic challenger Josh Weil for a seat vacated by Mike Waltz when he was tapped to become Trump’s national security adviser.

The win bolsters Republicans’ margin to 220-213 in the House of Representatives.

Special elections are often low-turnout events that can lead to surprising results. While GOP wins were widely expected in both districts — two of the most heavily Republican in the country — it’s notable that Democrats narrowed the margins considerably from November.

The races were among the first electoral tests of Trump’s new administration. The narrowing margins may signal a shift in public sentiment, driven by unusually strong enthusiasm as Democrats from across the country poured millions into the races. The opposition party hoped that backlash to the president’s overhaul of federal agencies and firing of federal workers would carve into the GOP’s margins at the polls.

Trump takes credit for the wins

Trump congratulated both candidates late Tuesday and said his endorsement helped them secure a victory.

“THE TRUMP ENDORSEMENT, AS ALWAYS, PROVED FAR GREATER THAN THE DEMOCRATS FORCES OF EVIL. CONGRATULATIONS TO AMERICA!” he said on his Truth Social platform.

At a waterfront restaurant in Pensacola, congratulatory text messages were already lighting up Patronis’ phone as early results were posted Tuesday night. Patronis worked the crowd of about 100 people, shaking hands and giving hugs, his wife Katie and two sons in tow.

“Let it be known that this election is a reminder the Florida Panhandle will forever be red, and it’ll forever be Trump country,” Patronis told his supporters. “And even their $6 million could not overcome one simple post on social media by Donald Trump.”

Fine spoke to about 100 supporters at the 2A Ranch Saloon in Ormond Beach, a barn-like building adorned with Trump decor, including cardboard cutouts of the president and a photo signed by first lady Melania Trump. Above Fine, a glowing “Trump is still my president” sign hung from the overhead balcony.

After the speech, Fine downplayed the narrowing margin, saying it was in the double digits and in a special election.

“I think it’s hard to say that’s an underperformance,” Fine said.

Weil said in a statement that the “race was closer than anyone ever imagined.”

“This result is also a warning sign to Donald Trump, Randy Fine, and the unelected oligarchs taking apart the government,” Weil said.

What do the results show?

Republicans in both districts are on track to win with narrower margins than their predecessors in every county. They also are on track to trail Trump’s 2024 share of the vote in the two congressional districts.

In the 6th Congressional District, Trump received roughly 65% of the vote in 2024, just behind the 67% Waltz received in his final House reelection bid. In Tuesday’s special election, Fine was underperforming Waltz by about 10 percentage points.

In Volusia County, Trump received 58% and Waltz received about 60% in 2024, while Fine was hovering around the 50% mark with nearly all the votes reported.

Fine, a self-described “conservative firebrand,” had faced growing pressure during the race’s final days as some Republicans publicly criticized his campaign and fundraising efforts, questioning whether this race would embarrass Republicans less than 100 days into Trump’s administration. Weil’s campaign raised an eye-popping $9 million compared to Fine’s $1 million.

National Democratic leaders attributed Weil’s fundraising success to what they characterized as widespread outrage against Trump. That outrage failed to materialize in large enough numbers to overturn the outcome, foiling Democrats’ hope to pull off a huge upset that would have buoyed their party.

The Democratic National Committee’s chair, Ken Martin, said the results showed “Democrats overperformed.” The National Republican Congressional Committee said the victories sent a message that “Americans are fired up to elect leaders who will fight for President Trump’s agenda and reject the Democrats’ failed policies,” spokesperson Mike Marinella said.

What did voters say?

Carol Vyhonsky, who drove to Fine’s election party from her home in Brevard County with a group of her friends, said she had no issues with Fine’s victory not being as strong as his predecessor’s was last year.

“The polling was looking a little iffy there for a while, but he pulled through,” Vyhonsky said. “As long as he won, that’s the important thing.”

Retired nurse Brenda Ray and her husband, Vietnam War veteran Mike Ray, made it to the polls to support Patronis earlier in the day. Brenda Ray said she didn’t know a lot about him but supported him because she believes he’ll “vote with our president.”

“That’s all we’re looking for,” she said.

Who are Fine and Patronis?

Fine was first elected to the Florida House in 2016 and ran each year as a representative until 2024 when he successfully won his election to the Florida Senate. He is known for his support of Israel and his efforts to restrict LGBTQ+ rights.

Patronis’ family founded the well-known Panama City restaurant Capt. Anderson’s, located along the Gulf of Mexico. He has been involved in Florida politics since he was in college, interning in the Florida Senate before being elected to the Florida House of Representatives in 2006. He was appointed by then-Gov. Rick Scott to become the state’s CFO in 2017 and won races to keep the Cabinet-level office in 2018 and 2022.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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The new workplace trade-off: Employers are offering ‘recharge days’ to soften the blow of return to office

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Henry Ford brought the 40-hour workweek to the Western world nearly a century ago, believing that giving workers eight hours of labor, eight hours of recreation, and eight hours of rest would improve retention and morale.

However, between commutes, school runs, and last-minute holdbacks at the office, it took a pandemic-induced global shutdown to realize that 8-8-8 had slowly morphed into something more like 12-6-6. Working from home briefly allowed workers to claw back some of that time.

Now, as leaders increasingly order staff back to the office, they’re sweetening the deal by giving them some time back.

Jackson Healthcare (No. 99), Intuit (No. 78), Sheetz (No. 40), and many others provide workers with wellness centers where they can exercise, receive nutrition advice, or even talk through their mental health struggles.

Nonprofit health care provider Wellstar Health System (No. 93) has an extensive range of benefits aimed at giving its 28,000 workers a breather, including 16 “wellness rooms” across major locations. The spa-like spaces come complete with massage chairs, calming music, and healthy snacks. It has proved popular with employees, and turnover last year decreased by 10%.

What’s more, the company is even paying workers up to $310 a year to prioritize well-being. Intuit similarly rewards employees for taking care of their health with a $1,300 annual Well-Being for Life reimbursement, which can be used for purchases such as a treadmill.

Other firms are more tangibly putting time to recharge back in the hands of their staff with literal days off the job to do exactly that.

The luxury Palm Beach resort the Breakers (No. 63) offers a four-day week when it’s fully staffed. Not only does that give workers respite, but, the company explains, it prevents overstaffing during slower periods. Meanwhile, Fannie Mae (No. 12) offers staff Flex Fridays whereby from 1 p.m. workers can shut down their laptops for an early weekend.

Of course, not all businesses are willing to commit to weekly time off. But many opt for “recharge days” or company-wide breaks to provide that structured downtime without a fixed schedule.

ServiceNow (No. 30) gives staff six additional annual paid days off to focus specifically on wellbeing; HP (No. 90) offers an annual “me day” for the same reason, and IHG (No. 17) provides three “recharge days” a year.

Tax services and software provider Ryan (No. 35) introduced a full-week closure in July, known as the Ryan Break. “This time acknowledges the need for time off not related to holidays and time when the entire company is closed,” Ryan says. Vertex Pharmaceuticals (No. 44), similarly, closes business for a week in the summer and at Christmas.

And then there’s law firm Perkins Coie (No. 89), which goes one step further and empowers workers to take a proper break from the workday grind with a paid sabbatical—that is, around four to eight weeks off at full pay after 10 years of service, and every 10 years thereafter, to “rejuvenate.” And team members at every level can take advantage of the policy.

But by far the most popular work-life balance policy being adopted by the 100 Best Companies to Work For is compressed hours—with nearly half offering the option.

Delta Air Lines (No. 15), PwC (No. 20), and Dow (No. 25) are among the many employers empowering staff to pursue more flexible schedules, like working longer Monday through Thursday in exchange for a three-day weekend. One thing is clear: Employers who invest in flexibility reap the rewards of a happier staff.

More on the 2025 Best Companies to Work For:

This article appears in the April/May 2025 issue of Fortune.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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