Business

‘The era of Fed independence would be over,’ Cook’s lawyers warn

Published

3 months ago

September 13, 2025

Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook is asking a U.S. appeals court to reject the Trump administration’s latest bid to remove her from her post ahead of the central bank’s next vote on interest rates.

In a filing with the court Saturday, attorneys on behalf of Cook asked the court to refuse an emergency request by the Trump administration for a stay of a lower court ruling that would clear the way for President Donald Trump to remove Cook from the Federal Reserve’s board of governors.

Lawyers for Cook argue that the Trump administration has not shown sufficient cause to fire her, and stressed the risks to the economy and country if the president were allowed to fire a Fed governor without cause.

“A stay by this court would therefore be the first signal from the courts that our system of government is no longer able to guarantee the independence of the Federal Reserve. Nothing would then stop the president from firing other members of the board on similarly flimsy pretexts. The era of Fed independence would be over. The risks to the nation’s economy could be dire,” according to the filing.

The court has given the Trump administration the option to respond to Cook’s filing by 3 p.m. Eastern on Sunday.

At stake is whether the Trump administration will succeed in its extraordinary effort to shape the board before the Fed’s interest rate-setting committee meets Tuesday and Wednesday. At the same time, Senate Republicans are pushing to confirm Stephen Miran, President Donald Trump’s nominee to an open spot on the Fed’s board, which could happen as soon as Monday.

Trump has accused Cook of mortgage fraud because she appeared to claim two properties as “primary residences” in July 2021, before she joined the board. Such claims can lead to a lower mortgage rate and smaller down payment than if one of them was declared as a rental property or second home.

Cook has denied the charges and sued the Trump administration to block her firing.

On Tuesday, U.S. District Court Judge Jia Cobb ruled the administration had not satisfied a legal requirement that Fed governors can only be fired “for cause,” which she said was limited to misconduct while in office. Cook did not join the Fed’s board until 2022.

The administration then appealed the decision and asked for an emergency ruling reversing the lower court order by Monday. In their emergency appeal, Trump’s lawyers argued that even if the conduct occurred before Cook’s time as governor, her alleged action “indisputably calls into question Cook’s trustworthiness and whether she can be a responsible steward of the interest rates and economy.”

If the Trump administration’s appeal succeeds, Cook would be removed from the Fed’s board until her case is ultimately resolved in the courts, and she would miss next week’s Fed meeting, when the central bank is set to decide whether to reduce its key interest rate.

If the appeals court rules in Cook’s favor, the administration could seek an emergency ruling from the Supreme Court.

The Fed is under relentless pressure from Trump to cut rates. The central bank has held rates steady since late 2024 over worries that the Trump administration’s unpredictable tariff policies will reignite inflation.

Last month, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that Fed officials are increasingly concerned about weaker hiring, setting the stage for a rate cut next week. Most economists expect the Fed will cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter-point to about 4.1%.

When the Fed reduces its key rate, it often, over time, lowers borrowing costs for mortgages, auto loans, and business loans. Some of those rates have already fallen in anticipation of cuts from the Fed.

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Business

If the Fed cuts interest rates today it may be the last round of cheaper money until June 2026

Published

22 minutes ago

December 10, 2025

Jace Porter

Enjoy your Fed interest rate cut today—it may be the last one for a while. There is a 90% certainty that U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will announce a 0.25% cut to the base rate this afternoon, bringing it down to the 3.5% level, according to speculators on the CME FedWatch Fed funds futures index. But after that, the FedWatch index is indicating no certainty for any further cuts in 2026.

Today’s cut is priced in at level of certainty approaching 90%. But here are what the levels of certainty for keeping the rate at 3.5% look like for 2026, per FedWatch:

January: 72.2%
March: 55.8%
April: 47.6%

Only in June does a plurality—41.9%—emerge for a further cut to 3.25%.

Analysts are all over the place in their guesses about how many further rounds of cheaper money the Fed will deliver next year, and with good reason: President Trump is set to replace Powell with a new Fed chair in May.

“We see the Fed cutting rates twice in 2026, with moves in March and in June,” ING’s James Knightley et alargued earlier this month. Plus, “the potential for a more dovish FOMC tilts the risks toward additional rate cuts later in the year.”

“But does this matter, given that we know the Federal Reserve’s structure is changing?” Knightley wrote.

At Deutsche Bank, the forecast is “one further 25bp cut in each of 2026 and 2027.”

Pantheon Macroeconomics’ guess is for three cuts, “We expect 75bp of easing in 2026, but fiscal policy and FOMC personnel changes cloud the outlook.”

The presumed favorite candidate for the new Fed chair is Kevin Hassett, widely regarded as a “dove” who will follow Trump’s preference for lower rates regardless of rising inflation. But there are three others in the running: Fed governors Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller and Michelle, Bowman, and BlackRock Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income Rick Rieder.

It’s not certain if the new appointee will tip the Federal Open Markets Comittee into a more dovish position (favoring more cuts) or whether the Fed’s institutional commitment to apolitical economics will prevail, which would imply a slower schedule of cuts or perhaps—if inflation continues to rise—none at all.

ING’s Knightley noted that by the end of 2026 it is possible that “five of the seven members of the Board of Governors are Trump appointees.” The Fed is about to become much more unpredictable, in other words.

Stock markets are largely in a holding pattern today as investors wait for the rate decision. It will be Powell’s commentary— and whether he says or doesn’t say certain words—that move markets this afternoon. S&P 500 futures were flat this morning prior to the open after the index closed flat yesterday.

Here’s a snapshot of the markets ahead of the opening bell in New York this morning:

S&P 500 futures were flat this morning. The last session closed down marginally 0.09%.
STOXX Europe 600 was down 0.12% in early trading.
The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was up 0.29% in early trading.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 0.1%.
China’s CSI 300 was down 0.14%.
The South Korea KOSPI was down 0.21%.
India’s NIFTY 50 was down 0.32%.
Bitcoin was at $92K.

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Business

Exclusive: U.S. businesses are getting throttled by the drop in tourism from Canada: ‘I can count the number of Canadian visitors on one hand’

Published

54 minutes ago

December 10, 2025

Jace Porter

From Washington state to northern New England, American businesses that have long depended on Canadian visitors are seeing traffic dry up — and with it, a crucial source of revenue.

A new report shared exclusively with Fortune by the Joint Economic Committee (JEC) – Minority, a congressional standing committee dating back to 1946 responsible for documenting the economic conditions of the U.S., details how a sharp drop in Canadian tourism is hitting every U.S. state along the northern border. The findings come as President Trump has proposed annexing Canada, imposed several rounds of tariffs on Canadian goods, and repeatedly broken off trade talks with Ottawa, contributing to a chill in cross-border travel and spending.

From January to October 2025, the number of passenger vehicles crossing the U.S.-Canada border fell by nearly 20% compared with the same period in 2024, according to the JEC analysis, which draws on U.S. Customs and Border Protection travel statistics. In some border states, the decline reached 27%, a shift that local tourism agencies say is showing up in fewer tourists, more hotel vacancies, and weaker sales.

“Going back for generations, Canadians have visited New Hampshire and many other states along the U.S.-Canada border to see family or friends, stay in our hotels, share a meal at our restaurants, and shop at our stores,” said U.S. Senator Maggie Hassan (D-NH), Ranking Member of the Joint Economic Committee. “However, in the wake of President Trump’s reckless tariffs and needless provocations, fewer and fewer Canadians are making trips to the United States, putting many American businesses in jeopardy and straining the close ties that bind our two nations.”

Canadians have historically been among the most important international visitors to the U.S., both in sheer numbers and in spending. Analysts and tourism officials note that rising prices, a weaker Canadian dollar, and heightened political tensions have nudged many travelers to choose domestic trips within Canada or alternative international destinations instead. For U.S. border communities, that shift is being felt in real time.

“These are more than numbers; they represent missed revenue for local businesses, reduced hotel demand, and fewer dollars supporting jobs and investment in our community,” said Shirley Hughes, president and CEO of Visit Fargo-Moorhead in Fargo, North Dakota, and Moorhead, Minnesota.

In northern New Hampshire, the absence of Canadian license plates is especially stark. “Being only eight miles from the border, normally Canadians make up anywhere from 15-25% of visitors. Now, I can probably count the number of Canadian visitors on one hand. I’m just trying to plug along and keep my nose above the waterline,” said Elizabeth Guerin, owner of the Fiddleheads gift shop in Colebrook, New Hampshire.

The impact stretches beyond retail and lodging into wineries and attractions that rely on cross-border regulars.

“The drop in visits from Canadian tourists has had a noticeable impact on our bottom line. With Canadians making up about 10% of our business, fewer cross-border travelers mean fewer tastings, tours, and wine sales — a ripple effect that touches our entire operation, underscoring how important cross-border tourism is to our business model,” said Scott Osborn, president and co-owner of Fox Run Vineyards in Penn Yan, New York.

Some operators worry the damage will outlast any eventual thaw in U.S.–Canada trade relations, as Canadian travelers form new habits elsewhere.

“This is long-lasting damage to a relationship and emotional damage takes time to heal. While people aren’t visiting Vermont, they’ll be finding new places to visit, making new memories, building new family traditions, and we will not recapture all of that,” said Christa Bowdish, owner of the Old Stagecoach Inn in Waterbury, Vermont.

On the West Coast, festival organizers are also feeling the pinch.

“Since March of this year, we have not only seen Canadian traffic drop drastically, but we have also seen a drop in our number of attendees at our festival this year in late September. We knew that after March, we could not rely on our Canadian business because of fear at the border and lack of understanding of what is happening with tariffs and Canada drawing a strong line of promoting Canada first,” said Kevin Coleman, executive director of SeaFeast in Bellingham, Washington.

For businesses up and down the northern border, the question now is not just when Canadians will return in force, but how much of that lost business can ever be won back.

For this story, Fortune journalists used generative AI as a research tool. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing.

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Business

Activist investors are targeting female CEOs—and it’s costing Corporate America

Published

1 hour ago

December 10, 2025

Jace Porter

Good morning. When Victoria’s Secret reported stellar quarterly results last week, shares shot up 14% and likely gave Hillary Super some breathing room from the activist investors pushing the lingerie company to, among other things, consider whether the CEO of 16 months is up to the task of turning it around.

Of course, the potential of having to deal with an activist investor’s campaign goes with the territory of being a CEO, especially at a company that has been struggling. But Super’s saga is a reminder that women CEOs remain much likelier than their male counterparts to be targeted by activist investors.

This year, according to a report last week by the Conference Board, women have made up 8% of the CEOs in the Russell 3000 index but accounted for 15% of activist campaigns specifically targeting chief executives. Other women to have recently confronted activists: Cracker Barrel’s Julie Masino, who survived a campaign, and Vail Resorts’ Kirsten Lynch, who did not.

What makes the Conference Board report especially frustrating is that it adds more proof points to an old, seemingly intractable trend.

In 2015, the New York Times’ DealBook pondered “Do Activist Investors Target Female CEOs?” while Fortune’s Pattie Sellers asked “Does Nelson Peltz have a problem with women?” In 2017, Harvard Law School found that women CEOs had almost a 50% higher probability than men of becoming the target of shareholder activism.

Why? One reason, the Conference Board theorized, is rooted in a stereotype that women are more cooperative. It’s also conceivable that the trend reflects the glass cliff phenomenon in which women often take the helm of companies in decline. But there is almost certainly some bias at play. The Conference Board research showed that women targeted by activists face the same odds of being canned whether they turn things around or not, while male CEOs are less likely to be ousted when results improve.

Some of the most prominent women chief executives ever have tangled with activists: PepsiCo’s ex-CEO Indra Nooyi, ex-Yahoo CEO Marissa Mayer, ex-DuPont CEO Ellen Kullman, ex-Mondelez CEO Irene Rosenfeld, ex-HP CEO Meg Whitman, and Mary Barra, still at GM. Michelle Gass, now thriving as CEO of Levi Strauss & Co, dealt with not one but three activist campaigns as she tried to fix Kohl’s.

Everyone should be held accountable when their company is failing or on a bad path. But it is worth wondering what this extra hurdle women CEOs face is costing us. Activist campaigns are bruising to the company but also to a CEO’s reputation. Does this mean boards might be more likely to avoid naming a woman to lower the odds of an activist campaign, or that fewer women will throw their hat in the ring?

Either way, it seems the phenomenon could needlessly be costing corporate America some much needed talent.—Phil Wahba

Contact CEO Daily via Diane Brady at diane.brady@fortune.com

Top news

Fed watch

All eyes will be on the Fed meeting today even though an interest rate cut is all but certain. Instead, investors will focus on Chair Jerome Powell’s tone and whether he characterizes Fed policy as “in a good place;” doing so would imply that a January cut is unlikely.

Fed chair watch

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has narrowed down the candidates to replace Powell as Fed chair. The frontrunner is National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, but to clinch the job he’ll reportedly have to outshine three other contenders in the final round of interviews, suggesting he’s not a shoo-in for the job.

Trump’s affordability tour

In his first in a series of speeches about “affordability,” President Trump mocked the term and insisted that Americans are doing better than ever. In reality, U.S. inflation is close to 3%, about where it was when Trump’s predecessor Joe Biden left office.

Miami’s mayoral race

As Trump railed against affordability, Eileen Higgins, a Democrat, defeated Trump’s favored candidate in Miami’s mayoral race with a campaign focused in part on affordable housing. She’s the first Democrat to occupy Miami’s City Hall in three decades (and the first-ever woman), giving Democrats another jolt of momentum ahead of the 2026 midterms.

Taiwan’s chip action

Taiwan is invoking a national security law to protect the trade secrets of its homegrown chipmaker TSMC and has used it to indict a TSMC supplier for allegedly letting a former employee steal details about TSMC’s top chips.

Layoffs hit 1.1 million

Recruitment firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas has calculated the number of layoffs so far this year at 1.1 million, the sixth time since 1993 that layoffs have been that high. Technology was the hardest hit sector with 150,000 layoffs.

Americans ‘living on the financial edge’

Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi told Fortunethat many Americans are “already living on the financial edge,” and that a drop in their spending could lead to a recession. If layoffs increase, then Zandi estimates that a “jobs recession” is certain.

Sam Altman worries about ‘rate of change’

During an appearance on The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman admitted that he’s worried about “the rate of change that’s happening in the world right now.” He added that the “rate at which jobs will change over may be pretty fast,” with hopes that “much better jobs” will follow.

The markets

S&P 500 futures were up 0.05% this morning. The last session closed down 0.09%. STOXX Europe 600 was down 0.19% in early trading. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was up 0.14% in early trading. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 0.1%. China’s CSI 300 was down 0.14%. The South Korea KOSPI was down 0.21%. India’s NIFTY 50 is down 0.32%. Bitcoin is up at $93K.