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The architect has no plan — Florida’s $18B tax cut without a blueprint

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Dwight Eisenhower once warned that “plans are worthless, but planning is everything.” It was his way of reminding leaders that big ideas succeed or fail long before they reach the battlefield.

Florida now finds itself considering an $18.3 billion repeal of homestead property taxes, with neither the plan nor the planning needed to hold the system together. It is the policy equivalent of removing a load-bearing wall with no structural review and simply assuming the building will absorb the strain.

At first glance, the idea is seductive. Who wouldn’t want to stop paying property taxes? But after a year of speeches, tweets and standing ovations, the Governor has produced exactly zero spreadsheets, zero fiscal models and zero back-of-the-napkin calculations to show how it would work. Florida is being asked to consider the largest structural change to local government finance in state history without a plan, a blueprint, or a single line of analysis.

Yet Tallahassee treats this as serious policy, rather than what it is: a slogan with an $18.3 billion price tag no one has seen.

The timing is telling. Florida faces projected deficits of $1.5 billion in 2027 and $6.6 billion in 2028, figures that arrive just as the current administration leaves office. Credit is claimed today while lawmakers inherit the wreckage tomorrow. The Revenue Estimating Conference, an institution that rarely exaggerates, projects an $18.3 billion annual hole in city and county budgets.

That estimate assumes no behavioral response, but in the real world, behavior always changes.

Remove property taxes in a state with no income tax and unlimited homestead bankruptcy protection and Florida becomes the nation’s premier tax shelter. Housing demand surges. Prices rise. New residents use essential services but do not pay for them.

Someone always pays.

Renters will pay through higher rents. New buyers will pay through inflated prices. Small businesses will pay through higher commercial rates. Cities will push millage rates to their statutory limits and increase fees in the code, including stormwater, fire, garbage and permitting. These costs compound quietly and fall hardest on households without a homestead cap.

Local governments will not announce dramatic cuts to public safety. They will simply quietly stop hiring A mid-sized Florida police department that needs 22 new officers to match population growth will hire 8. Not because crime fell but because no one commits to long-term payroll when revenue is collapsing. This is how public safety erodes: not with sirens but with empty patrol shifts.

The state promises to backfill the lost revenue. With what? The same budget projected to run billions in the red? For how long? By what formula? Guaranteed by which statute? Enforced by which future Governor? Occam’s Razor offers the most straightforward answer: there is no plan because the math does not work.

And if that were not already apparent, consider the veto. The Governor eliminated the one study designed to answer these questions. Leaders do not bury analysis unless they fear the conclusion. That veto was not an act of strength. It was concealment.

Beyond cities and counties, Florida has over 100 special districts that rely heavily on property taxes, including fire districts, hospital districts, water management districts, children’s services and library systems. Eliminating homestead revenue would destabilize many of them at once, and no one in Tallahassee can say which would endure or what services would be lost, because the analysis has never been done.

Legislative leadership must halt the charade. If the Governor wants a Special Session, suspend all work on this proposal during the Regular Session. The House and Senate should make clear they will not spend floor time, Committee hours, or political capital on a concept without numbers.

Let the Governor issue the call. When he does, demand what has been avoided for a year: a written plan supported by modeling, assumptions, trade-offs and county-by-county impacts.

A responsible tax system is broad, stable, neutral and transparent. Eliminating homestead property taxes meets none of these criteria. It narrows the base, destabilizes budgets, shifts burdens into rents and fees, and severs voters from the cost of the services they demand. It is not conservative. It is not reform. It is not governance.

Florida already faces real crises. Property insurance. Prisons. Housing affordability. Water quality. Workforce shortages. These are the storms gathering on the horizon. Legislators should focus on those, rather than reinventing local finance with a slogan and a shrug.

The path forward is simple. Require a written plan with real math. Convene a special Impact Estimating Conference under section 216.138 of the Florida Statutes, for the analysis that was previously blocked. Until that happens, freeze consideration of this proposal and wait for a formal Special Session call.

In the end, the Legislature is being asked to hard-wire a constitutional amendment into Florida’s future with no schematics, no modeling and no answers, only a cheerful sketch and an eighteen-billion-dollar blind spot. Florida deserves a plan drawn by an architect who intends to live in the building, not a departing contractor waving around a crayon and calling it destiny.

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Former Sen. Jeff Brandes is the founder of the Florida Policy Project.



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Debra Tendrich turns ‘pain into policy’ with sweeping anti-domestic violence proposal

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Florida could soon rewrite how it responds to domestic violence.

Lake Worth Democratic Rep. Debra Tendrich has filed HB 277, a sweeping proposal aimed at modernizing the state’s domestic violence laws with major reforms to prevention, first responder training, court safeguards, diversion programs and victim safety.

It’s a deeply personal issue to Tendrich, who moved to Florida in 2012 to escape what she has described as a “domestic violence situation,” with only her daughter and a suitcase.

“As a survivor myself, HB 277 is more than legislation; it is my way of turning pain into policy,” she said in a statement, adding that months of roundtables with survivors and first responders “shaped this bill from start to finish.”

Tendrich said that, if passed, HB 277 or its upper-chamber analogue (SB 682) by Miami Republican Sen. Alexis Calatayud would become Florida’s most comprehensive domestic violence initiative, covering prevention, early intervention, criminal accountability and survivor support.

It would require mandatory strangulation and domestic violence training for emergency medical technicians and paramedics, modernize the legal definition of domestic violence, expand the courts’ authority to order GPS monitoring and strengthen body camera requirements during investigations.

The bill also creates a treatment-based diversion pathway for first-time offenders who plead guilty and complete a batterers intervention program, mental-health services and weekly court-monitored progress reporting. Upon successful completion, charges could be dismissed, a measure Tendrich says will reduce recidivism while maintaining accountability.

On the victim-safety side, HB 277 would flag addresses for 12 months after a domestic-violence 911 call to give responders real-time risk awareness. It would also expand access to text-to-911, require pamphlets detailing the medical dangers of strangulation, authorize well-check visits tied to lethality assessments, enhance penalties for repeat offenders and include pets and service animals in injunctions to prevent coercive control and harm.

Calatayud called it “a tremendous honor and privilege” to work with Tendrich on advancing policy changes “that both law enforcement and survivors of domestic abuse or relationship violence believe are meaningful to protect families across our communities.”

“I’m deeply committed to championing these essential reforms,” she added, saying they would make “a life-or-death difference for women and children in Florida.”

Organizations supporting HB 277 say the bill reflects long-needed, practical reform. Palm Beach County firefighters union IAFF Local 2928 said expanded responder training and improved dispatch information “is exactly the kind of frontline-focused reform that saves lives.”

The Florida Police Benevolent Association called HB 277 a “comprehensive set of measures designed to enhance protections” and pledged to help advance it through the Legislature.

The Animal Legal Defense Fund praised provisions protecting pets in domestic violence cases, noting research showing that 89% of women with pets in abusive relationships have had partners threaten or harm their animals — a major barrier that keeps victims from fleeing.

Florida continues to see high levels of domestic violence. The National Coalition Against Domestic Violence estimates that 38% of Florida women and 29% of Florida men experience intimate-partner violence in their lifetimes — among the highest rates in the country.

With costs rising statewide, HB 277 also increases relocation assistance through the Crimes Compensation Trust Fund, which advocates say is essential because the current $1,500 cap no longer covers basic expenses for victims fleeing dangerous situations.

Tendrich said survivors who contributed to the bill, which Placida Republican Rep. Danny Nix is co-sponsoring, “finally feel seen.”

“This bill will save lives,” she said. “I am proud that this bill has bipartisan support, and I am even more proud of the survivors whose bravery drives every line of this legislation.”



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Ash Marwah, Ralph Massullo battle for SD 11 Special Election

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Even Ash Marwah knows the odds do him no favors.

A Senate district that leans heavily Republican plus a Special Election just weeks before Christmas — Marwah acknowledges it adds up to a likely Tuesday victory for Ralph Massullo.

The Senate District 11 Special Election is Tuesday to fill the void created when Blaise Ingoglia became Chief Financial Officer.

It pits Republican Massullo, a dermatologist and Republican former four-term House member from Lecanto, against Democrat Marwah, a civil engineer from The Villages.

Early voter turnout was light, as would be expected in a low-key standalone Special Election: At 10% or under for Hernando and Pasco counties, 19% in Sumter and 15% in Citrus.

Massullo has eyed this Senate seat since 2022 when he originally planned to leave the House after six years for the SD 11 run. His campaign ended prematurely when Gov. Ron DeSantis backed Ingoglia, leaving Massullo with a final two years in office before term limits ended his House career.

When the SD 11 seat opened up with Ingoglia’s CFO appointment, Massullo jumped in and a host of big-name endorsements followed, including from DeSantis, Ingoglia, Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson, U.S. Sens. Ashley Moody and Rick Scott, four GOP Congressmen, county Sheriffs in the district, and the Florida Chamber of Commerce.

The Florida LGBTQ+ Democratic Caucus is endorsing Marwah.

Marwah ran for HD 52 in 2024, garnering just 24% of the vote against Republican John Temple

Massullo has raised $249,950 to Marwah’s $12,125. Massullo’s $108,000 in spending includes consulting, events and mail pieces. One of those mail pieces reminded voters there’s an election.

The two opponents had few opportunities for head-to-head debate. The League of Women Voters of Citrus County conducted a SD 11 forum on Zoom in late October, when the two candidates clashed over the state’s direction.

Marwah said DeSantis and Republicans are “playing games” in their attempts to redraw congressional district boundaries.

“No need to go through this expense,” he said. “It will really ruin decades of progress in civil rights. We should honor the rule of law that we agreed on that it’ll be done every 10 years. I’m not sure why the game is being played at this point.”

Massullo said congressional districts should reflect population shifts.

“The people of our state deserve to be adequately represented based on population,” he said. “I personally do not believe we should use race as a means to justify particular areas. I’m one that believes we should be blind to race, blind to creed, blind to sex, in everything that we do, particularly looking at population.”

Senate District 11 covers all of Citrus, Hernando and Sumter counties, plus a portion of northern Pasco County. It is safely Republican — Ingoglia won 69% of the vote there in November, and Donald Trump carried the district by the same margin in 2024.



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Miles Davis tapped to lead School Board organizing workshop at national LGBTQ conference

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Miles Davis is taking his Florida-focused organizing playbook to the national stage.

Davis, Policy Director at PRISM Florida and Director of Advocacy and Communications at SAVE, has been selected to present a workshop at the 2026 Creating Change Conference, the largest annual LGBTQ advocacy and movement-building convention.

It’s a major nod to his rising role in Florida’s LGBTQ policy landscape.

The National LGBTQ Task Force, which organizes the conference, announced that Davis will present his session, “School Board Organizing 101.” His proposal rose to the top of more than 550 submissions competing for roughly 140 slots, a press note said, making this year’s conference one of the most competitive program cycles in the event’s history.

His workshop will be scheduled during the Jan. 21-24 gathering in Washington, D.C.

Davis said his selection caps a strong year for PRISM Florida, where he helped shepherd the organization’s first-ever bill (HB 331) into the Legislature. The measure, sponsored by Tampa Democratic Rep. Dianne Hart, would restore local oversight over reproductive health and HIV/AIDS instruction, undoing changes enacted under a 2023 expansion to Florida’s “Parental Rights in Education” law, dubbed “Don’t Say Gay” by critics.

Davis’ workshop draws directly from that work and aims to train LGBTQ youth, families and advocates in how local boards operate, how public comment can shape decisions and how communities can mobilize around issues like book access, inclusive classrooms and student safety.

“School boards are where the real battles over student safety, book access, and inclusive classrooms are happening,” Davis said. “I’m honored to bring this training to Creating Change and help our community build the skills to show up, speak out, and win — especially as PRISM advances legislation like HB 331 that returns power to our local communities.”

Davis’ profile has grown in recent years, during which he jumped from working on the campaigns and legislative teams of lawmakers like Hart and Miami Gardens Democratic Sen. Shevrin Jones to working in key roles for organizations like America Votes, PRISM and SAVE.

The National LGBTQ Task Force, founded in 1973, is one of the nation’s oldest LGBTQ advocacy organizations. It focuses on advancing civil rights through federal policy work, grassroots engagement and leadership development.

Its Creating Change Conference draws thousands for four days of training and strategy-building yearly, a press note said.



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