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The AI bubble will pop. Intelligence won’t

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Oracle’s 43% stock surge in a single day should make investors uneasy. This isn’t a meme stock or speculative startup, it’s one of America’s largest tech firms, suddenly trading at bubble-era valuations. The AI boom has inflated the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to record highs. This run-up is the latest development that has led investors to wonder: Will the AI bubble pop?

Yes, it will.

But what won’t pop is intelligence itself. While Wall Street bids up mega-models with billion-dollar burn rates, AI is producing measurable returns elsewhere in transformational, if less glamorous, ways. 

Take Austin, Texas, where an on-premise AI-system helped local government process building permits in days instead of months. No spectacle. No headlines. Just efficiency gains that will outlast the market cycle.

That’s the point too often missed in the frenzy. Mega-models attract headlines, consume billions in capital, and struggle to demonstrate sustainable economics. Meanwhile, smaller, domain-specific systems are already delivering efficiency gains, cost savings and productivity improvements. The smart play isn’t to abandon AI, but to pivot toward models and deployments that will endure.

We’ve seen this movie before. Netscape once symbolized the internet revolution. Its spectacular IPO made headlines; its decline made history. But the collapse of early web darlings didn’t kill the internet, it revealed that the real value lay not in browsers but in the infrastructure beneath them.

AI stands at the same crossroads today. The platforms consumers know best — ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude — are extraordinary feats of engineering, but they don’t represent sustainable AI. They are breathtakingly expensive to run, but free or cheap to use. They deliver entertainment and convenience more than enterprise value. It’s fun to have ChatGPT turn out a poem, nice when it helps you smooth out an email — but it’s not mission-critical.

Economically, the hyperscale model doesn’t hold. Training and maintaining ever-larger systems yields diminishing returns while costs escalate into the billions. That’s why GPT-5 landed with a shrug. Scale alone is no longer impressive.

So what is?

The answer lies in focused deployments. Austin’s permitting office achieved in weeks what bureaucracy had delayed for years. Healthcare systems are running diagnostic models fine-tuned for their specialties that outperform general-purpose LLMs. Financial firms are already relying on BloombergGPT, trained on market data, which delivers better results in its domain than larger consumer platforms. These applications generate tangible ROI and do so sustainably.

The principle is simple: a massive general-purpose model can do many things at a passable level, but it rarely excels. A leaner system, built for a specific function and deployed thoughtfully, can deliver speed and accuracy where it matters most and at a fraction of the cost. This is the strategic, cost-effective way forward: integrate AI in tactical ways that directly serve the business, rather than chasing the illusion of a one-stop shiny new AI technology.

Think of it as staffing a project: 100 average consultants won’t outperform five experts.

Where the data lives matters just as much. Lighter models can be optimized to run locally on edge devices or inside secure enterprise facilities instead of depending on costly, centralized infrastructure. At webAI, for example, we’ve been able to shrink models by nearly a third while preserving accuracy. That changes the economics completely. Instead of routing every query through an expensive cloud data center, intelligence sits closer to the data it serves, making it cheaper, faster, more resilient and more secure. Just as important, enterprises retain ownership of their data and the insights built on it, which is not possible when relying solely on hyperscale providers.

Companies tied exclusively to mega-models are exposed to spiraling costs, energy scrutiny, and security vulnerabilities. Decentralized, specialized AI avoids those traps. IT also offers resilience and puts businesses on firmer ground for the regulatory scrutiny that is sure to come.

With this in mind, smart techno-optimists and AI investors need not panic when headlines warn of an “AI winter.” Yes, some companies will collapse under the weight of unsustainable economics, just as many did after the dot-com crash. But AI itself isn’t going away. It’s evolving toward networks of specialized systems that work together more like a city grid rather than a skyscraper.

For executives, the takeaway is clear: avoid chasing scale for its own sake. Instead, invest in AI systems that are efficient, close to your data, and tailored to specific business needs. Build for sustainability, not spectacle.

When the next AI earnings cycle sends markets into another frenzy, remember Austin’s building permits. The businesses building lean, domain-specific intelligence won’t be watching their valuations with the same anxiety. AI isn’t going back in the box. But the future won’t be bigger at all costs — it will be smarter, leaner and built for staying power.

The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.

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Procurement execs often don’t understand the value of good design, experts say

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Behind every intricately designed hotel or restaurant is a symbiotic collaboration between designer and maker.

But in reality, firms want to build more with less—and even though visions are created by designers, they don’t always get to see them to fruition. Instead, intermediaries may be placed in charge of procurements and overseeing the financial costs of executing designs.

“The process is not often as linear as we [designers] would like it to be, and at times we even get slightly cut out, and something comes out on the other side that wasn’t really what we were expecting,” said Tina Norden, a partner and principal at design firm Conran and Partners, at the Fortune Brainstorm Design forum in Macau on Dec. 2.

“To have a better quality product, communication is very much needed,” added Daisuke Hironaka, the CEO of Stellar Works, a furniture company based in Shanghai. 

Yet those tasked with procurement are often “money people” who may not value good design—instead forsaking it to cut costs. More education on the business value of quality design is needed, Norden argued.

When one builds something, she said, there are both capital investment and a lifecycle cost. “If you’re spending a bit more money on good quality furniture, flooring, whatever it might be, arguably, it should last a lot longer, and so it’s much better value.”

Investing in well-designed products is also better for the environment, Norden added, as they don’t have to be replaced as quickly.

Attempts to cut costs may also backfire in the long run, said Hironaka, as business owners may have to foot higher maintenance bills if products are of poor design and make.

AI in interior and furniture design

Though designers have largely been slow adopters of AI, some luminaries like Daisuke are attempting to integrate it into their team’s workflow.

AI can help accelerate the process of designing bespoke furniture, Daisuke explained, especially for large-scale projects like hotels. 

A team may take a month to 45 days to create drawings for 200 pieces of custom-made furniture, the designer said, but AI can speed up this process. “We designed a lot in the past, and if AI can use these archives, study [them] and help to do the engineering, that makes it more helpful for designers.” 

Yet designers can rest easy as AI won’t ever be able to replace the human touch they bring, Norden said. 

“There is something about the human touch, and about understanding how we like to use our spaces, how we enjoy space, how we perceive spaces, that will always be there—but AI should be something that can assist us [in] getting to that point quicker.”

She added that creatives can instead view AI as a tool for tasks that are time-consuming but “don’t need ultimate creativity,” like researching and three-dimensionalizing designs.

“As designers, we like to procrastinate and think about things for a very long time to get them just right, [but] we can get some help in doing things faster.”



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Binance has been proudly nomadic for years. A new announcement suggests it’s chosen an HQ

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For years, Binance has dodged questions about where it plans to establish a corporate headquarters. On Monday, the world’s largest crypto exchange made an announcement that indicates it has chosen a location: Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates.

In its announcement, Binance reported that it has secured three global financial licenses within Abu Dhabi Global Market, a special economic zone inside the Emirati city. The licenses regulate three different prongs of the exchange’s business: its exchange, clearinghouse, and broker dealer services. The three regulated entities are named Nest Exchange Limited, Nest Clearing and Custody Limited, and Nest Trading Limited, respectively.

Richard Teng, the co-CEO of Binance, declined to say whether Abu Dhabi is now Binance’s global headquarters. “But for all intents and purposes, if you look at the regulatory sphere, I think the global regulators are more concerned of where we are regulated on a global basis,” he said, adding that Abu Dhabi Global Market is where his crypto exchange’s “global platform” will be governed.

A company spokesperson declined to add more to Teng’s comments, but did not deny Fortune’s assertion that Binance appears to have chosen Abu Dhabai as its headquarters.

Corporate governance

The Abu Dhabi announcement suggests that Binance, which has for years taken pride in branding itself as a company with no fixed location, is bowing to the practical considerations that go with being a major financial firm—and the corporate governance obligations that entails.

When Changpeng Zhao, the cofounder and former CEO of Binance, launched the company in 2017, he initially established the exchange in Hong Kong. But, weeks after he registered Binance in the city, China banned cryptocurrency trading, and Zhao moved his nascent trading platform. Binance has since been itinerant. “Wherever I sit is going to be the Binance office,” Zhao said in 2020.

The location of a company’s headquarters impacts its tax obligations and what regulations it needs to follow. In 2023, after Binance reached a landmark $4.3 billion settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice, Zhao stepped down as CEO and pleaded guilty to failing to implement an effective anti-money laundering program.

Teng took over and promised to implement the corporate structures—like a board of directors—that are the norm for companies of Binance’s size. Teng, who now shares the CEO role with the newly appointed Yi He, oversaw the appointment of Binance’s first board in April 2024. And he’s repeatedly telegraphed that his crypto exchange is focused on regulatory compliance.

Binance already has a strong footprint in the Emirates. It has a crypto license in Dubai, received a $2 billion investment from an Emirati venture fund in March, and, that same month, said it employed 1,000 employees in the country. 



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Leaders in Congress outperform rank-and-file lawmakers on stock trades by up to 47% a year

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Stocks held by members of Congress have been beating the S&P 500 lately, but there’s a subset of lawmakers who crush their peers: leadership.

According to a recent working paper for the National Bureau of Economic Research, congressional leaders outperform back benchers by up to 47% a year.

Shang-Jin Wei from Columbia University and Columbia Business School along with Yifan Zhou from Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University looked at lawmakers who ascended to leadership posts, such as Speaker of the House as well as House and Senate floor leaders, whips, and conference/caucus chairs.

Between 1995 and 2021, there were 20 such leaders who made stock trades before and after rising to their posts. Wei and Zhou observed that lawmakers underperformed benchmarks before becoming leaders, then everything suddenly changed.

“Importantly, whilst we observe a huge improvement in leaders’ trading performance as they ascend to leadership roles, the matched ‘regular’ members’ stock trading performance does not improve much,” they wrote.

Leadership’s stock market edge stems in part from their ability to set the regulatory or legislation agenda, such as deciding if and when a particular bill will be put to a vote. Setting the agenda also gives leaders advanced knowledge of when certain actions will take place.

In fact, Wei and Zhou found that leaders demonstrate much better returns on stock trades that are made when their party controls their chamber.

In addition, being a leader also increases access to non-public information. The researchers said that while companies are reluctant to share such insider knowledge, they may prioritize revealing it to leaders over rank-and-file lawmakers.

Leaders earn higher returns on companies that contribute to their campaigns or are headquartered in their states, which Wei and Zhou said could be attributable to “privileged access to firm-specific information.”

The upper echelon also influences how other members of Congress vote, and the paper found that a leader’s party is much more likely to vote for bills that help firms whose stocks the leader held, or vote against bills that harmed them. And stocks owned by leadership tend to see increases in federal contract awards, especially sole-source contracts, over the following one to two years.

“These results suggest that congressional leaders may not only trade on privileged knowledge, but also shape policy outcomes to enrich themselves,” Wei and Zhou wrote.

Stock trades by congressional leaders are even predictive, forecasting higher occurrences of positive or negative corporate news over the following year, they added. In particular, stock sales predict the number of hearings and regulatory actions over the coming year, though purchases don’t.

Investors have long suspected that Washington has a special advantage on Wall Street. That’s given rise to more ETFs with political themes, including funds that track portfolios belonging to Democrats and Republicans in Congress.

And Paul Pelosi, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband, even has a cult following among some investors who mimic his stock moves.

Congress has tried to crack down on members’ stock holdings. The STOCK Act of 2012 requires more timely disclosures, but some lawmakers want to ban trading completely.

A bipartisan group of House members is pushing legislation that would prohibit members of Congress, their spouses, dependent children, and trustees from trading individual stocks, commodities, or futures.

And this past week, a discharge petition was put forth that would force a vote in the House if it gets enough signatures.

“If leadership wants to put forward a bill that would actually do that and end the corruption, we’re all for it,” said Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, R-Fla., on social media on Tuesday. “But we’re tired of the partisan games. This is the most bipartisan bipartisan thing in U.S. history, and it’s time that the House of Representatives listens to the American people.”



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