Politics
The 2026 Senate map is tough for Democrats, but Republicans have their own headaches
Republicans are encountering early headaches in Senate races viewed as pivotal to maintaining the party’s majority in next year’s midterm elections, with recruitment failures, open primaries, infighting and a President who has been sitting on the sidelines.
Democrats still face an uphill battle. They need to net four seats to retake the majority, and most of the 2026 contests are in states that Republican President Donald Trump easily won last November.
But Democrats see reasons for hope in Republicans’ challenges. They include a nasty primary in Texas that could jeopardize a seat Republicans have held for decades. In North Carolina and Georgia, the GOP still lacks a clear field of candidates. Trump’s influence dials up the uncertainty as he decides whether to flex his influential endorsement to stave off intraparty fights.
Republicans stress that it remains early in the election cycle and say there is still plenty of time for candidates to establish themselves and Trump to wade in. The President, said White House political director James Blair, has been working closely with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, a South Dakota Republican.
“I won’t get ahead of the President but look, him and leader Thune have been very aligned. I expect them to be aligned and work closely,” he said.
Trump’s timing, allies say, also reflects the far more disciplined approach by him and his political operation, which are determined for Republicans to gain seats in both the Senate and the House.
Here’s what’s happening in some key Senate races:
An ugly Texas brawl
Democrats have long dreamed of winning statewide office in this ruby red state. Could a nasty GOP primary be their ticket?
National Republicans and GOP Senate strategists are ringing alarm bells amid concerns that state Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is facing a bevy of personal and ethical questions, could prevail over U.S. Sen. John Cornyn for the nomination.
They fear Paxton would be a disastrous general election candidate, forcing Republicans to invest tens of millions of dollars they believe would be better spent in other states.
Texans for a Conservative Majority, a super political action committee supporting Cornyn, a onetime Trump critic, began airing television ads this past week promoting his support for Trump’s package of tax breaks and spending cuts.
Don’t expect the upbeat tone from the pro-Cornyn super PAC to hold long. Paxton was acquitted after a Republican-led impeachment trial in 2023 over allegations of bribery and abuse of office, which also exposed an extramarital affair. His wife, Angela, filed for divorce on July 10, referring to “recent discoveries” in announcing her decision to end her marriage of 38 years “on biblical grounds.”
“Ken Paxton has embarrassed himself, his family, and we look forward to exposing just how bad he’s embarrassed our state in the coming months,” said Aaron Whitehead, the super PAC’s executive director. Trump adviser Chris LaCivita, who co-managed Trump’s 2024 campaign, is advising the group.
But Cornyn has had a cool relationship with Trump over the years, while Paxton is a longtime Trump ally. And Paxton raised more than three times as much as Cornyn in the second quarter, $2.9 million compared with $804,000, according to Federal Elections Commission reports.
U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt is also weighing a run.
Will Trump be persuaded to endorse or will he choose to steer clear?
Will North Carolina have a Trump on the ballot?
The surprise retirement announcement by two-term U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis has set off a frenzied search for a replacement in a state widely seen as Democrats’ top pickup opportunity. He had repeatedly clashed with Trump, including over Medicaid changes in the tax cut bill, leading the President to threaten to back a primary challenger.
All eyes are now on Lara Trump, the President’s daughter-in-law, who is mulling whether to run in her home state as other potential candidates stand by.
A familiar national Republican face as co-chair of the Republican National Committee during Trump’s 2024 campaign, Lara Trump is now a Fox News Channel host. She also had been a visible surrogate during previous campaigns, often promoting her North Carolina roots and the fact that she named her daughter Carolina.
Having a Trump on the ballot could boost a party that has struggled to motivate its most fervent base when Donald Trump is not running. But Lara Trump currently lives in Florida and has so far sounded muted on the prospect of a Senate run.
Other potential contenders include RNC chair Michael Whatley, who led North Carolina’s GOP before taking the national reins and is considered a strong fundraiser and Trump loyalist, and first-term U.S. Reps. Pat Harrigan and Brad Knott. While Lara Trump and Whatley are better known nationally, Harrigan is a West Point graduate and Knott is a former federal prosecutor.
Democrats are waiting on a decision from former two-term Gov. Roy Cooper, who is seen as a formidable candidate by both parties in a state Trump carried by just 3.2 percentage points last year. Former Rep. Wiley Nickel has entered the race, but it’s unclear what he would do if Cooper ran.
In Georgia, a pickup opportunity with no candidate yet
Republicans see Georgia and the seat held by Democratin U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff as one of their best pickup opportunities. But the party remains in search of a well-known challenger after failing to persuade term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp to run.
A growing potential field includes U.S. Reps. Buddy Carter, Mike Collins and Rich McCormick, Insurance Commissioner John King and Derek Dooley, a former University of Tennessee football coach. The President is still meeting with possible candidates and is expected by many to wait to weigh in until his team has fully screened them and assessed their chances and after his budget priorities make their way through Congress.
Ossoff took in more than $10 million in the second quarter of the year, according to federal filings, after raising $11 million from January through March. He ended June with more than $15.5 million cash on hand.
That money will matter in what is sure to be an expensive general election. The Senate races in 2020, when Ossoff and U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock narrowly won and flipped control to Democrats, cost more than $900 million combined.
Michigan GOP waits on Trump
Republicans hope the retirement of Democratic U.S. Sen. Gary Peters and a crowded, expensive Democratic primary will help them capture a seat that has eluded them for more than three decades. Here, too, all eyes are on Trump.
Republicans are rallying around former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, who came within 20,000 votes in 2024 against then-U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin and had Trump’s endorsement. Rogers now appears to have momentum behind him, with the support of Thune, the National Republican Senatorial Committee and former Trump campaign veterans LaCivita and Tony Fabrizio.
But other Republicans could complicate things. U.S. Rep. Bill Huizenga has said he is waiting for guidance from the president on whether he should run.
“When people are asking why haven’t you announced or what are you going to do, it’s like, look, I want to get the man’s input, all right?” Huizenga told reporters last month. A spokesperson for Huizenga added that the congressman has spoken to Trump on the phone multiple times and has yet to be told not to run.
Still, White House officials have on more than one occasion encouraged Huizenga to stay in the House, according to one person familiar with the conversations who was not authorized to publicly discuss the private discussions and spoke only on condition of anonymity.
Democrats have their own messy primary, with state Sen. Mallory McMorrow up against Rep. Haley Stevens, state Rep. Joe Tate, and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed.
They were pleased to see that, even without any declared challengers, Rogers’ main campaign account raised just $745,000 during the second quarter, lagging Huizenga and several Democrats. (He brought in another nearly $779,000 through a separate joint fundraising committee.) McMorrow, by comparison, raised more than $2.1 million.
In Louisiana, another Trump antagonist
Republican U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy has faced scrutiny from his party, in no small part for his 2021 vote to convict Trump after the president’s second impeachment. Will Trump seek retribution against the two-term senator or ultimately back him?
Though Cassidy already faces two primary challengers, Louisiana is a reliably Republican state, which Trump won last year by 22 percentage points. Democrats are hoping a strong contender — potentially former Gov. John Bel Edwards, who has attracted Republican votes in the past — might mount a competitive challenge.
Republicans are awaiting word on whether U.S. Rep. Julia Letlow will run. In May, Gov. Jeff Landry and Trump privately discussed the two-term congresswoman entering the race.
Letlow and Landry appeared together at a congressional fundraiser for her in Lafayette, outside her northeast Louisiana district, on June 30, fueling speculation about her plans.
The Governor’s discussion with Trump of a new challenger to Cassidy reflects the Trump base’s unease with Cassidy, not simply over the impeachment vote, but also Cassidy’s concerns about installing Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the nation’s health secretary. Cassidy ultimately backed Kennedy, a move some saw as an effort to ease tensions.
Among Cassidy’s Republican challengers so far are state Treasurer John Fleming and state Sen. Blake Miguez. Letlow, serving in the seat her husband held before he died of COVID-19, is considered a rising star in the Louisiana GOP.
Wavering incumbent in Iowa
Two-term Republican U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst has not said whether she plans to seek a third term.
Ernst would be expected to win in the state Trump carried by 13 percentage points last year. But she has come under some criticism from Iowa Republicans, including for saying she needed to hear more from Trump’s pick for defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, before committing to support his nomination amid allegations of sexual assault that Hegseth denied.
The Senator, a combat veteran and sexual assault survivor, eventually voted to confirm him.
Though a final decision awaits, Ernst has named a 2026 campaign manager and has scheduled her annual Iowa fundraiser for October.
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Republished with permission of the Associated Press.
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Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.
First Shot
Did Christina Pushaw break the law by asking gubernatorial candidate James Fishback to delete text messages the two exchanged in recent months?
Maybe.
Pushaw, who earns a $179,000 tax-funded salary as a senior management analyst for Gov. Ron DeSantis, all but confirmed the authenticity of texts between her and Fishback in which she appears to have written, “I need you to confirm that you deleted everything with my name on it.”
The exchange has raised questions about whether she solicited the destruction of public records, which would be illegal if the messages involved her government duties, but likely not if they were strictly campaign-related, as she says.
Fishback posted a screenshot of the exchange following a public blowup between the two after they, according to Pushaw, spoke “frequently” since October about Fishback’s campaign.
On X, Pushaw accused Fishback of deception, writing: “Thanks for proving my point that you have no qualms about lying and revealing private messages. I truly believed that we were friends, and I feel sickened and violated by this betrayal.”
Pushaw, who has worked for DeSantis as both a campaign and government staffer, says she was never paid for advising Fishback and never told the Governor about her communications with Fishback.
In a brief phone interview on Monday, she said none of her messages with Fishback touched her state job.
“I never talked to him about government business,” she said. She declined to explicitly confirm the authenticity of Fishback’s screenshots, including one that referenced her government position.
Read more on Florida Politics.
Evening Reads
—“Donald Trump ties Greenland takeover bid to Nobel Prize in text to Norway leader” via Ellen Francis and Steve Hendrix of The Washington Post
—”Trump’s letter to Norway should be the last straw” via Anne Applebaum of The Atlantic
—”Trump’s Greenland move is one of the dumbest political decisions I have ever seen” via Chris Cillizza of So What
—”The race to build the DeepSeek of Europe is on” via Joel Khalili of WIRED
—”Three maps tell a tale of the 2026 Midterms.” via Ashley Cai and Shane Goldmacher of The New York Times
—”Orlando Sentinel 150: Remembering MLK’s only visit to Orlando in 1964” via the Orlando Sentinel
—“Jeff Brandes: Six ideas Legislature can’t afford to ignore in 2026” via Jeff Brandes for Florida Politics
—”The Indiana-Miami CFP game is the Hollywood tangle we didn’t know we needed” via Steven Zeitchik of The Hollywood Reporter
—”‘It shaped my DNA’: The very Miami story of Mario Cristobal” via Andrea Adelson of ESPN
—”Two other Hoosiers from Miami are coming home, too — and could play a big role” via David J. Neal and Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald
Quote of the Day
“I didn’t vote for this weather.”
— Marc Caputo on a frigid morning in Miami.
Put it on the Tab
Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.
Even though it’s booze-free, the Duval delegation could use a Cortisol Cocktail to calm their nerves after a bomb threat landed in their inboxes.
Disney and Universal are getting an Investigators Rite, courtesy of Central Florida Democrats, who are requesting they look into a company that operates independent restaurants on their properties.
Someone should’ve sent an Out of Office for Attorney General James Uthmeier, because he picked an odd day to drop his latest opinion.
Breakthrough Insights
Tune In
Miami plays for national title at home
The Miami Hurricanes try for the program’s first national championship since 2001 when they face top-seeded Indiana at Hard Rock Stadium tonight (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN).
Miami entered the College Football Playoff as the 10th seed and knocked off Texas A&M, Ohio State, and Ole Miss to reach the finals. The Hurricanes (13-2) have benefitted from a defense that has limited opponents to 14 points per game this season. Defensive end Rueben Bain Jr. was named the ACC defensive player of the year and is a likely Top 10 pick in the NFL Draft.
Indiana (15-0) has enjoyed the greatest season in program history. In the second season under Curt Cignetti, the Hoosiers have not only won more games than they ever have in a season, but also more than the program ever did in two consecutive seasons combined before Cignetti’s arrival.
The Hoosiers are led by Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza.
The two programs have met twice in history, with Indiana winning the first meeting in 1964 and the Hurricanes taking the return match in 1966. The two programs have not met since.
The last time a college football team won the national championship by winning a game on its home field was the Hurricanes, who won the Orange Bowl following the 1987 season to win the program’s second of five national championships.
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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.
Gubernatorial candidate James Fishback’s legal woes are deepening.
A federal magistrate Judge has ordered Fishback, the founder and CEO of Azoria Capital, to turn over company stock certificates and a slate of luxury purchases to the U.S. Marshals Service by the end of the month as payment on a $229,000 judgment to his former employer, Greenlight Capital.
U.S. Magistrate Judge Martin Fitzpatrick of the Northern District of Florida granted two unopposed motions by Greenlight after Fishback failed to respond by a court-ordered deadline.
It’s the latest escalation in a dispute between Greenlight and Fishback, a former analyst for the hedge fund who has made more headlines recently for his race-baiting rhetoric in the Governor’s race, allegations of grooming, multistate voter registration and public blowup with Gov. Ron DeSantis adviser Christina Pushaw.
Greenlight told the court that Fishback still owes it money under a June 2025 court order. The firm asked the court in late November to compel Fishback to surrender his stock or share certificates in Azoria Capital, Inc., a Delaware corporation Greenlight described as founded by Fishback and controlled by him at “75% or more.”
Because Fishback did not oppose the request, the court granted it and directed him to “locate, obtain, and turn over” all Azoria stock and/or share certificates to the U.S. Marshals Service by Jan. 30.
The Marshals Service, in turn, is ordered to sell the stock for the benefit of Greenlight as the judgment creditor. Fitzpatrick warned Fishback that federal courts have inherent authority to enforce orders and cautioned that ignoring the directive could place him “in danger of being held in contempt of court.”
Fitzpatrick also granted a second motion by Greenlight seeking the turnover of personal property belonging to Fishback. The firm alleged that Fishback claimed he lacked means to pay the $229,000 judgment while making more than $37,000 in debit card purchases over 16 months through a previously undisclosed JPMorgan Chase account.
The court summarized transactions at retailers including eBay, Nordstrom, Burberry, Bucherer and others, but noted it did not know what exactly Fishback purchased. Still, Fitzpatrick described the spending as “extravagant” and found that Fishback, by not responding by the deadline, waived his chance to argue the items were exempt or not personal property.
Under the order, Fishback must turn over 43 items listed in the motion paper, along with a list, to the Marshals Service by Jan. 30. The Marshals must hold the items for 30 days, allowing Greenlight’s lawyers to retrieve and sell them as partial satisfaction of the judgment.
Fishback worked at Greenlight from 2021 to 2023, after which he and the company became embroiled in a very public dispute over how he described his role there. He said he was “head of macro” for Greenlight, while the New York hedge fund insisted no such title ever existed and that the loftiest role Fishback held was as a research analyst.
Greenlight alleged that Fishback misrepresented his position to boost credibility and attract investors for Azoria. Fishback, meanwhile, argued Greenlight’s denial harmed him with potential backers and pointed to internal communications he says support his version of events.
He did, however, admit to sharing confidential Greenlight portfolio information and agreed to pay costs to resolve a separate lawsuit.
Trustees of a white-label exchange-traded fund (ETF) under Tidal Financial Group also voted in October to liquidate two Azoria ETFs — SPXM and TSLV, which together held about $40 million in assets — after Fishback admitted to sharing the information.
Between when he launched his campaign on Nov. 24 and Dec. 31, when fourth-quarter bookkeeping closed, Fishback reported raising less than $19,000 through his campaign account and nothing through an affiliated political committee.
Fishback is seeking the Republican nomination for Governor. The race’s poll-tested front-runner, U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds, amassed $45 million last quarter.
Rep. Anna Eskamani says she has raised more than $1 million so far as she tries to become the next Orlando Mayor.
The Orlando Democrat says she hit the milestone last week as lawmakers returned to Tallahassee for the start of the 2026 Legislative Session.
Term-limited in the House, Eskamani is running in 2027 to replace Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer, who is not running for re-election.
“This campaign is powered by everyday Orlandoans who believe our city can be more affordable, more connected, and safer for everyone,” Eskamani said in a statement.
“Raising over one million dollars from thousands of grassroots donors sends a clear message: people are ready for leadership that listens, leads with integrity, solves problems, and puts community first. Together, we’re building a movement that reflects the heart of Orlando and delivers real results for working families.”
Her campaign has given out 900 yard signs and knocked on more than 33,000 doors in the city, according to a press release.
So far, no other established candidates have filed to run against Eskamani, although she has drawn her first competitor on the ballot: Abdelnasser Lutfi.
Lutfi, who filed to run for Mayor in late December, was not immediately available when reached for comment Monday afternoon.
Eskamani and Lutfi are running to replace Dyer, the longest-serving Mayor in Orlando’s history. Dyer was first elected in 2003.
Eskamani also said she is launching a podcast called “Twinning with Anna and Ida” with her twin sister.
“Every episode will unpack economic public policy issues that are critically important to everyone, but aren’t always well understood by the vast majority of people — often because they have been made intentionally opaque by politicians and the corporations who fund them to benefit from the complex system,” a press release said.
“But they will also have some fun along the way, from exposing a ‘grift of the month’ in Florida politics to exploring the punk rock scene in Orlando.”
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