• Whether it be investment banks, analysts, or economists, the finance world mostly agrees that tariffs are bad news ahead of what President Donald Trump has called “liberation day.”

Economists are raising their recession odds, and investors are worried about tariffs on so-called “liberation day,” but there’s talk of a market bottom. Welcome to the week of April 2: the day president Donald Trump will deliver on his promise to impose reciprocal dollar-for-dollar tariffs. 

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee suggested on CNBC Monday that markets could have the “right pieces” for a bottom this week. The cofounder of Fundstrat has earned a reputation for his recent, correct stock-market forecasts, and his call for a bottom would be a bullish signal that the worst of the selloff may be over, clearing the way for a rebound. 

In fact, after stocks initially sank early Monday, they pared losses sharply, and the Dow even turned positive.

For now, investors are worried about what tariffs will look like on April 2, whether they’ll hurt the economy, and other policies coming from the Trump administration, Lee said. Markets are oversold and investors are de-risking, he added. 

“It’s an interminable wait for people because it is still three days, and they’re fearful we could have three days down 2%,” Lee said. 

But he thinks the U.S. will come out of this okay, comparing the present situation to Brexit, when the United Kingdom withdrew from the European Union but eventually saw stocks rally. Still, there is distortion in the U.S. economy at the moment. People are buying wine and cars before tariffs, he said, and that isn’t great for prices. 

Meanwhile, Wall Street increasingly suspects tariffs could send the economy into a downturn.

On Sunday, Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi raised his recession odds. He now sees a 40% chance that a recession will occur this year; he previously suspected there was a 15% chance. Zandi blamed an intensifying trade war from Trump’s tariffs and layoffs from Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency for stubborn inflation and sliding consumer sentiment.

The coming reciprocal tariffs will only worsen things, Zandi said on X. “As long as the tariffs and DOGE cuts continue to mount, so too will the odds of recession,” he wrote.

He isn’t the only one to see a greater chance of a recession. Goldman Sachs said there is a 35% chance that gross domestic product could contract for two straight quarters, in a research note released Sunday. Earlier, the investment bank only saw a 20% risk of a recession.

Tariffs are again to blame because of their tax-like effect on disposable income and consumer spending, plus their tendency to push markets around, the bank said. When businesses face an extra tax, they tend to pass that cost onto consumers, which is why tariffs are considered inflationary—and why one think tank believes they are “a recipe for making Americans worse off.”

JPMorgan said there’s a 40% probability that the economy falls into a recession this year because it sees lower growth and higher inflation on the back of an estimated 11% effective tariff rate, the bank said in a note dated March 28. Not to mention, the bank does not believe “liberation day” will close the 2025 trade war chapter. 

Auto tariffs, specifically, are on analysts’ minds. Trump set a 25% tariff on foreign-made cars and parts. The levies won’t hurt cars made in America, but according to one analyst there is no such thing as a car completely made in the U.S. 

So the car tariff would be “a back breaker and Armageddon for the auto industry,” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives wrote in a note published Monday morning. He estimated the typical car would be $5,000 to $10,000 more costly for an American consumer since the auto industry would incur $100 billion more in costs each year. “The concept of a U.S. car maker with parts all from the U.S. is a fictional tale that does not exist and [it] would take years to make this concept a reality,” Ives wrote. 

In a note published Monday, Bank of America echoed Ives and many others, bluntly claiming “auto tariffs are bad,” and that the idea that they’ll create more jobs doesn’t pass the test of “sound economic theory.”

The housing world is concerned about tariffs too. Trump placed a tariff on steel and aluminum, and lumber could be next. All are used in the construction of homes. Builders estimate that levies could add an extra $9,000 to the price tag on every home. Considering housing is at a post-pandemic standstill because of deteriorated affordability and the lock-in effect, many people couldn’t bear even one more increase in cost. 

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 “In its failure to grasp this relationship between America and America’s environment lies the moral and practical bankruptcy of any and all forms of isolationism. It is most unfortunate that this virus of isolationist sterility has so deeply infected an influential section of the Republican Party. For until the Republican Party can develop a vital philosophy and program for America’s initiative and activity as a world power, it will continue to cut itself off from any useful participation in this hour of history. And its participation is deeply needed for the shaping of the future of America and of the world.”

While the quote seems modern, it’s taken from Henry R. Luce’s most famous essay, “The American Century,” published in Life magazine in February 1941. 

Luce hoped his message would persuade Americans to support Britain in its fight against Hitler and fascism. Although much has changed since it was published 84 years ago, if you substitute Ukraine for Britain and Putin for Hitler, many of his arguments still hold weight.

Luce understood that America had become the world’s most powerful nation. He thought that America needed friends and allies who shared its values, and it was obliged to “defend and even to promote, encourage and incite so-called democratic principles throughout the world.” 

Luce was America’s most powerful media executive when he wrote “The American Century.” His magazines—Time, Fortune, and Life—and The March of Time newsreels influenced public opinion, governments, and society. He was a conservative Republican, a capitalist, and a strong anti-communist. He criticized the Democrats for burdening America with “massive government debt, a sprawling bureaucracy, and a whole generation of young people conditioned to rely on the government as the source of all life.” He asserted that Democrats were “sympathetic to various socialist doctrines.”

But Luce—who was born in China to Christian missionary parents—believed that America, as the world’s most powerful nation, had global responsibilities that came with its ambitions. He recognized domestic pressures affecting the economy and society, and he understood that “America cannot be responsible for the good behavior of the entire world.” Nevertheless, he believed it was in America’s interest to assist countries that were too poor to help themselves. He felt that America could and should be “the Good Samaritan of the entire world” and that “for every dollar we spend on armaments, we should spend at least a dime in a gigantic effort to feed the world.”

Since the end of World War II, we have faced our share of setbacks and failures alongside our successes. The Korean War produced a dangerous stalemate, while the conflicts in Vietnam and Afghanistan ended with ignominious retreats. We relied on lies and false pretenses to justify the war in Iraq. Peace in the Mideast remains elusive. 

Foreign aid, however, transformed Germany and Japan into allies and democracies with thriving economies. Our ongoing military presence in South Korea helped it become a wealthy ally. The fall of South Vietnam did not weaken democracies in Southeast and South Asia. The so-called “domino theory” was proven wrong, and today Vietnam is a valued trade partner. The collapse of the Soviet Union 35 years ago liberated many of Russia’s satellite nations from its stifling grip. America has benefited from having strong allies who embraced what have traditionally been America’s core beliefs. 

American aid has saved millions of lives in the world’s poorest countries. The U.S. Agency for Global Media (USAGM), which includes Voice of America (VOA), Radio Free Europe, and other government agencies, is dedicated to explaining America. Geoffrey Cowan, who led VOA under President Clinton, says the goal was to do so with objective, unbiased information. 

Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency has sought to dismantle the USAGM and its operating units, including VOA, with President Trump’s enthusiastic, albeit illogical, backing. Musk has also criticized the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), which has supported non-governmental groups working abroad to promote democratic goals for over 40 years. He claims, without evidence, that the NED is “rife with corruption.” Despite previous congressional approval, Musk has cut the NED’s funding, leading to the closure of many organizations it supported.  

One of those organizations is the International Republican Institute (IRI), founded in 1983 with support from then-President Ronald Reagan. The IRI conducts polling worldwide and operates in more than 100 countries, promoting free and fair elections. Marco Rubio was on its board before becoming Secretary of State, and several Republican senators are still on its board, including Tom Cotton, Joni Ernst, Lindsay Graham, Mitt Romney, and Dan Sullivan. None of them have had much to say about the IRI’s funding loss.

Each of these organizations has faced criticism, some of which is legitimate. The IRI, for instance, has been accused by several publications, including The New York Times, of inciting a coup in Haiti. The NED, intended to be nonpartisan, has drawn criticism from both the left and the right. Some of our aid efforts have undoubtedly been wasteful and ineffective, although Elon Musk’s DOGE has not yet proven substantial fraud or waste. 

But the proper response is to fix the problems. Instead, the Trump administration has gutted these efforts, freezing foreign assistance, shutting off funding, and forcing their closure. China, Russia, Iran, and other dictatorships couldn’t be happier. Along with cutbacks in support for Ukraine, the Trump administration is making the world a more dangerous place.

The world has clearly changed since Luce wrote “The American Century.” We will have to share power with other nations, particularly China, India, and their Asian neighbors. Our actions will determine whether the American Century gives way to a Pacific Century that includes the U.S. or an Asian Century that, whenever possible, leaves us on the sidelines. While much of the world may dislike China’s authoritarian government, it increasingly distrusts us. The Trump administration’s efforts to initiate tariff wars while cutting off U.S. government efforts to assist developing nations have tragically worsened that distrust. 

I never met Henry Luce. He wrote “The American Century” the year before I was born, and he died in 1967, the year before I became a working journalist. But during my 15 years at Time Inc., including eleven as its Editor in Chief, I sat on the executive floor of the iconic Time-Life building he had built in midtown Manhattan. While there, Time Inc. owned more than 150 magazines. Time and Fortune, now privately held by different owners, remain influential global brands. We might have disagreed on many issues if we had been contemporaries, but I came to appreciate many of his values. I admired his willingness to speak out against autocrats and Washington politicians he opposed, including Franklin Roosevelt and, through the pages of Time, Joe McCarthy. 

I regret that so many media properties are now controlled by conglomerates or billionaires hesitant to confront Trump. The public benefits from journalism that aims to hold governments accountable. However, Trump’s delight in retaliation has made owners and CEOs timid, especially if their other businesses depend on government contracts or are subject to government regulation. 

I have no doubt that Henry Luce would have been unafraid of Donald Trump, appalled by the president’s narrow-minded retreat from global commitments, disgusted by his embrace of authoritarian dictators, and shocked by his attacks on allies who are still dedicated to democratic values. Rather than making America great again, he would think Trump’s policies are more likely to “Make America Small Again,” as he rushes to dismantle the underpinnings of Luce’s American Century.

The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.

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