In 2024, Italy consolidated its position as one of the world’s favourite tourist shopping destinations, the first in Europe. Tax-free spending by non-EU visitors in the country continues to grow, having risen by 15% last year, and by 20% if we take into account the impact of the new minimum threshold of €70 to qualify for VAT rebate, introduced by Italy’s Ministry of Tourism in 2024. Among the nationalities with the highest share of tax-free spending in Italy, US tourists led with a 25% share, followed by Chinese (11%) and Middle Eastern tourists (10%). These are some of the findings of the survey presented in Milan on Tuesday, March 25, by Global Blue, the international shopping tax refund company, during the Trend&Insight 2025 event. For the occasion, Deloitte also presented its first exclusive report on tourism and retail in Italy, which analysed domestic and European tourist flows as well as non-EU ones.

Tax-free shopping in Italy recorded a CAGR of 6.6% between 2019 and 2024, with notable year-on-year spending growth recorded by Turkish tourists (up 39%) and Chinese ones (up 35%). (U)HNWIs, i.e. those who spent more than €20,000 on tax-free purchases in 2024, contributed significantly to the results. (U)HNWIs accounted for only 3% of total shoppers, but for 30% of total spending. Significantly, one third of (U)HNWIs worldwide chose to shop in Italy in 2024. 

In terms of product categories, 34% of tax-free spending in Italy in 2024 was on ready-to-wear, with a 12% increase over 2023 and an average spend per shopper of €1,200. Leather goods and handbags followed with a 24% share, a 4% rise and a €1,300 average spend, while jewellery recorded a 9% share, with a 5% rise and a €1,500 average spend. Despite accounting for only a 7% share, spending in the watches category increased by 32% over 2023, with an average per shopper of €6,600. 

Chinese tourists’ spend at pre-Covid levels, notably in Japan

 
The 20% growth in tax-free shopping spending in Italy was consistent with worldwide trends. Tax-free spending in Europe as a whole rose by 16%, while Asia was the real global driver, recording a 61% spending growth in 2024, chiefly thanks to Japan’s record performance.
 
Tax-free spending rebounded slowly in the initial post-pandemic years, but in 2024 its performance overtook that of the luxury market as a whole, currently going through a weak patch. In the 2019-2024 period, the luxury sector posted a 5% CAGR, and the tax-free shopping sector an 8.5% one. The tax-free sector’s resilience was the result of three factors: a 13% increase in travellers and a 29% one in tourist shoppers worldwide; more affordable prices stimulating purchases; and a higher-spending consumer base than the luxury market as a whole, with a 68% share of aspirational shoppers vs a 36% one.
 
Nationality-wise, in 2024 Chinese tourists returned to and even exceeded, by 12%, their 2019 spending levels. They accounted for 24% of global tax-free spend, thanks to an 81% increase over 2023. Notably, their purchases were chiefly concentrated in Asia: 55% of Chinese spending took place in Japan (whose share was up by 13 points over 2023), equivalent to a whopping 139% spending increase in the country, while Chinese tax-free spending in Europe rose by ‘only’ 35%.
 
US tourists accounted for 14% of global tax-free spending in 2024, a 20% rise. This was the result of the US dollar’s appreciation, the US stock market’s performance, and the increased global popularity of the many brands that decided to open stores in the USA in 2023. Besides, US shoppers are increasingly high-spending: American UHNWIs increased their spend by 50%, contributing to 10% of total spending.
 
Category-wise, spending grew for both lifestyle and premium/luxury brands, with the latter’s CAGR in 2019-2024 at 9.5%, vs 6.3% for the former. Proof that tax-free shopping is still a key growth driver for the luxury market, which is generally struggling to increase its revenue, as Global Blue noted. Interestingly, shoppers who bought across the luxury, premium and lifestyle categories increased their spend by 39%, with an average spend of €3,400.
 

Expectations for 2025

 
US consumers will be the market’s driving force in 2025, owing to their strong desire to travel (91% of US respondents in a Global Blue survey said they want to visit Europe this year), a record increase in passport numbers (50% of Americans have one, up 5 points over 2019), and a desire to increase luxury spending. Conversely, Chinese tax-free spending will continue to grow at a slower pace, given also that visas for tour groups are harder to come by, though the situation could change in the second half of the year.
 

The Deloitte study

 
During Trend&Insight 2025, Global Blue presented part of the exclusive ‘Travellers’ Retail Market in Italy’ study commissioned to Deloitte. The study found that Italy’s current macroeconomic environment is favourable to international tourism, with rising foreign demand playing a positive part in the country’s 2024-2025 GDP growth.

According to the study, in 2024 the offline retail market’s value in Italy was estimated at approximately €240 billion, of which 27% (€63 billion) was attributable to product categories related to discretionary shopping, whose revenue returned to pre-Covid levels thanks to a 1% CAGR in 2019-2024.
 
About 85% of discretionary shopping revenue (€54 billion) was generated by categories of interest to tourists in Italy, including fashion and apparel, perfume and cosmetics, footwear, leather goods, handbags and accessories, watches and jewellery.
 
As for tourist flows, approximately 152 million tourists (both domestic and foreign) visited Italian destinations in 2024, up 1% over 2023. The number of international tourists visiting Italy did not reach pre-Covid levels, but grew by 3% in 2024. Domestic tourism instead posted a 3% decrease compared to 2023, also due to the decrease in Italian household purchasing power. 
 
In 2024, about 35 million people visited Italy on holiday, spending on average more than those who visited the country for other reasons. The average length of stay in Italy by foreign tourists was slightly lower than in 2023, from 4.5 nights to 4.1 nights. However, there was a shift towards higher-end hotels, in line with the positive revenue trend for 5-star and 4-star hotels, where spending per stay grew by 11% and 10% respectively.
 
Excluding accommodation expenses, the total expenditure incurred by international tourists in Italy in 2024 was about €54 billion, up 5% over 2023; of this, 26% was devoted to shopping, the second expenditure category after food & dining, which had a 42% share. Shopping spending posted double-digit growth over the previous year, rising by 10.6% in 2024.
 
Looking to the future, the propensity of foreigners to travel has continued to increase in early 2025, while for the next three years, the Italian offline retail market for the main product categories in which tourists typically spend their money is expected to grow modestly.
 
“[Tax-free spending] growth [in Italy] in 2024 was significant, thanks also to the positive contribution of the lower spending threshold to qualify for VAT rebate. The upward trend has been confirmed in early 2025. It will be crucial for brands to follow the market’s evolution via increasingly comprehensive and in-depth data analysis,” said Stefano Rizzi, managing director Italy of Global Blue, a NYSE-listed company that connects thousands of retailers, buyers and hotels with almost 80 million consumers in 53 different countries, with tax-free shopping, payments and post-purchasing solutions. With over 2,000 employees and a revenue of €422 million in fiscal 2023-24, Global Blue generated €28 billion of in-store sales in the same year through its solutions.
 
Tommaso Nastasi, partner of Deloitte Italy, said that “international tourism is a strategic driver for the retail trade in Italy, within an unstable macroeconomic environment. Investing in an ad hoc value proposition would enable brands to exploit a high-added-value sector and bolster market growth for the coming years.”