The European luxury Tax Free Shopping market has grown by 7%, according to Global Blue’s study presented at the second edition of the Luxury Insight event. The increase suggests a degree of market stabilisation after years of double-digit growth, driven by a modest rise both in the number of shoppers (+5%- nearly 3 million additional consumers) and in average spend (+2%), taking the figure to €3,900.
The Global Blue study presented at the Luxury Insight event.
However, these trends are not evenly distributed across brand segments and product categories. The Exclusive cluster continues to outperform the Luxury segment, which is under pressure, particularly in Ready-to-Wear and Leather Goods & Bags. By contrast, the Luxury Watches & Jewellery segment is delivering above-average results both in shopper growth and in average spend.
The report indicates a slowdown in luxury Tax Free spending by Chinese tourists in Europe, with a 2019-2024 CAGR of -8% and the spending recovery rate in the first half of 2025 stuck at 62% of 2019 levels. Their contribution has fallen from 32% to 13%, overtaken by the US (22%) and Gulf countries (13%). They nonetheless remain the most significant nationality globally (23% of total spend), with a growing preference for East Asia, where Japan now accounts for 40% of their Tax Free purchases (up from 14% in 2019).
Among high-spending shoppers, Ultra High Net Worth Individuals (UHNWIs) remain the main driver of luxury Tax Free Shopping: they represent just 0.1% of shoppers but generate 20% of total volumes, with an average spend of €132,000 per shopper and a CAGR of +15% since 2019. UHNWIs are the most strategic segment for luxury brands, thanks to their high purchase frequency and loyalty. They are repeat shoppers: 64% made at least one luxury purchase in two consecutive years, a rate three times higher than the rest of the international clientele. Moreover, over 70% of these customers show strong loyalty to the brands they buy, returning to the same label. By product category, Watches & Jewellery remains the favourite among UHNWIs, accounting for 43% of total spend over the past year. The segment also recorded the strongest growth in spending (+36%) and is the only category with a positive change in average spend per shopper (+8%).
Italy is consolidating its position in this segment: 44% of UHNWIs who made purchases in Europe chose the country as their shopping destination, second only to France (68%), confirming its central role in international luxury. Another growth driver is shoppers from the US and the Gulf countries, who lead Tax Free spending in Europe. These two nationalities account for 22% and 13%, respectively, of overall luxury Tax Free spend, with year-on-year growth of +12% for US shoppers and +14% for those from the Gulf. In Italy, the share of US shoppers is even more significant, reaching 25% of luxury Tax Free spend.
A third driver of luxury growth is Gen Z (under 28), whose purchasing power is set to multiply by up to thirty times by 2030. It is the only generation showing double-digit growth in both the number of shoppers (+21%) and spending (+24%). Moreover, it contributes the most to the expansion of the luxury market in Europe: of the overall +7%, about a third (+2.4%) is attributable to Gen Z shoppers. However, Gen Z shows a significantly lower level of brand loyalty than other age groups, making them harder to engage and retain.
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What’s been a good year for Outlet Shopping at The O2 has just got better. The centre, linked closely to the O2 entertainment arena in the Greenwich Peninsular, southeast London, has opened two more new stores — fashion retailer TM Lewin and jewellery brand Lovisa — while also adding a recently-upsized unit for sportswear brand New Balance.
Image: TM Lewin
It all adds up to “growing momentum” for an outlet shopping destination that’s “on track for a stellar end to 2025” having enjoyed a 23% uplift in sales throughout November vs 2024, and footfall up 24% across the whole scheme, it said.
British heritage brand TM Lewin’s 1,827 sq ft store becomes the retailer’s only outlet location after returning to physical retail earlier this year. The space offers the brand’s range of shirts, suits, and accessories.
Dan Ferris, managing director at TM Lewin, said: “Our re-entry into physical retail has been a big move for us this year, and we have carefully selected locations where we believe our stores can get the best experience, regular customers, and be part of a community.”
Also making its outlet debut, Lovisa will open a 1,722 sq ft unit, adjacent to fashion retailers Dune London and Kurt Geiger, becoming the destination’s second dedicated jewellery retailer. It’s arrival supports the venue as a draw for accessories with demand “up 38% over November vs the same period in 2024”.
The store will offer its full range of necklaces, earrings and rings as well as its piercing facilities.
Long-standing tenant New Balance is also set to reinvest at the outlet, upsizing into a new 3,129 sq ft unit. The space will sport the brand’s new store concept, with additional space for wider stock collections.
Louisa Dalgleish, leasing director at Outlet Shopping at The O2, added: “As a destination already full of leading retail, the fact that we continue to attract such strong brands for their outlet debuts speaks volumes about our sustained momentum. Our success is a direct result of our collaborative landlord approach and the strength of our tenant mix, and our positive results throughout November are a clear indication that things show no sign of slowing down, with us remaining firmly front of mind for new entries into the outlet market.”
The combination of gold and share prices soaring in unison is a phenomenon not seen in at least half a century and raises questions of a potential bubble in both, global central bank umbrella body, the Bank for International Settlements, says.
Gold seized included coins, bars, and jewellery (photo for illustrative purposes only) – REUTERS/ Ajay Verma/File Photo/File Photo
While equity markets continue to be driven by AI and tech gains, gold’s 60% surge this year is set to be its biggest since 1979, fuelling debate about whether its traditional role as a safe-haven asset has changed. “Gold has behaved very differently this year compared to its usual pattern,” Hyun Song Shin, economic adviser and head of the Monetary and Economic Department at the BIS said as it released its final report of the year on Monday. “The interesting phenomenon this time has been that gold has become much more like a speculative asset.”
Dubbed the central bank to the world’s central banks, the BIS has given regular warnings about potential stock market bubbles in recent years, but its concern around the co-movement with gold is two-fold. Where would investors shelter if stocks and gold both crash. And what could it mean for central banks and other reserve managers given some have been heavy buyers of gold.
The BIS’ analysis concluded that this year has been the first time gold and the S&P 500 have jointly exhibited “explosive behaviour” in the last 50 years. Not only is gold up 60% this year, it is up more than 150% since 2022 when the post-Covid pandemic surge in inflation began to impact markets, alongside Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent Western sanctions on Moscow.
Another possible bubble warning sign is that retail investors have also been piling in. Gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) prices have been consistently trading at a premium relative to their net asset value (NAV) this year, signalling “strong buying pressure coupled with impediments to arbitrage,” the BIS said.
Central banks’ purchases have “clearly set a very firm tone in the price of gold,” Shin added. “Whenever you have prices actually doing quite well, you will see other investors jumping in, and certainly retail investors have also taken part (in the rally), and not just in gold”.
The BIS gave a broader warning too about the “growing fragility” of the risk-on environment amid the concerns about artificial intelligence (AI) valuations and the recent 20% dives in cryptocurrencies like bitcoin. The European Central Bank and Bank of England have both raised their own AI bubble concerns in recent weeks and the risk of an abrupt burst if investors’ rosy expectations are not met.
Shin said the profits being made by the AI firms- now spending enormous amounts on data centres- was an important difference between now and the “dotcom bubble” of the early 2000s when firms weren’t making money. The “fundamental question,” however, is whether those expenditures will be seen as being justified in the long run, Shin said, adding that the other key determinant for markets will be how the global economy holds up next year. “So far, activity has been surprisingly resilient,” Shin said.
The BIS is also watching where the dollar goes from here. This year it is headed for its biggest annual drop since the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2007. “After the April episode (when US President Donald Trump announced sweeping trade tariff plans), the dollar has been relatively stable,” Shin said. “I think the hedging behaviour of non-US investors is going to be a very, very important input into how markets will co-move from here.”
Share purchases in key companies are always interesting but we wouldn’t normally mention anyone buying a relatively small amount of shares, especially not an amount adding out to ‘only’ £75,000.
Image: Dr Martens
But given that the company concerned saw fit to announce the purchase itself and given that the company is in the middle of a major turnaround, it’s of more interest than it might usually be.
Dr Martens announced on Monday that Robert Hanson, who joined the board as an independent non-executive director in March, has purchased 96,000 shares in Dr Martens – worth over £75,000.
Share purchases by insiders are particularly significant given that those insiders tend to have the best view of how the company is faring with its turnaround and an individual committing a significant sum of their own money is particularly interesting.
Hanson currently serves as CEO of The Duckhorn Portfolio. His previous roles include EVP and president of Constellation Brands’ Wine & Spirits, president of Americas at Levi’s as well as CEO roles at American Eagle Outfitters and John Hardy.
He purchased 96,000 ordinary shares at a price of £0.7886 per share. The buy suggests he believes that the shares, which are much lower than their all-time high of £5+, represent good value and should rise.
Dr Martens is currently working through a recovery from a major period of weakness and it seems to be yielding results. Its first half update in November showed progress, with America recovering in particular even though EMEA still showed weakness.
A week later, it also announced the opening of its new Soho, London flagship and that’s a key development. The store “represents the most elevated expression of the… brand to date”. The first-ever ‘beacon’ store is on Brewer Street with its two floors spanning 3,400 sq ft to make it the brand’s biggest UK flagship – “built to bring the people and product of Dr Martens together”.
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