Tampa Bay Downs in spotlight for Let ’em Run this weekend
Tune în this weekend for a special show from Tampa Bay Downs
A Quiet Weekend, But Plenty of Action at Tampa Bay Downs
It may be a quieter weekend when it comes to Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby prep races, but that does not mean the action stops for Let ‘em Run. We are heading to Tampa Bay Downs, where a solid card of 12 races is scheduled for Saturday. The highlight of the day is the Tampa Bay Derby, one of two Derby prep races this weekend along with the San Felipe at Santa Anita. The winner of each race will earn 50 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
My partner John Kostin will have “boots on the ground” at Tampa Bay Downs during our Saturday podcast, which will air at a special time of 11:30 this week. John will be joined by his handicapping partner Wadie Khalaf as they break down the Late Pick 5 and share any trackside insights that could give us, and our viewers, an edge. Let’s take a look at the Late Pick 5 sequence covering Races 7 through 11.
Race 7 – The Columbia Stakes (1 Mile Turf – $125K)
We kick off the Pick 5 with a competitive turf race going one mile. The #5 Alpyland (9-5) will likely be a popular choice on many tickets to start the sequence. However, we think this leg could require a little more coverage.
One horse that deserves attention is #8 Beautiful War (6-1), now ridden by jockey Sam Marin. Horses sired by War of Will often improve in their second start, which makes this runner a legitimate threat to upset the favorite.
Race 8 – Maiden Special Weight (6 Furlongs Dirt – $60K)
Race 8 is a six-furlong sprint featuring a field of ten young runners, including three first-time starters looking to break their maiden.
Trainer Chad Brown sends out #2 Right Timing (9-5) with jockey Flavian Prat aboard, and that combination will attract plenty of attention at the windows. However, we are taking a look at another first-time starter, #3 Starship Valiant (15-1), trained by Anthony Ferraro. Ferraro has an impressive 40 percent strike rate with first-time runners, and the colt is sired by Nyquist, whose offspring often show speed early in their careers.
Also worth considering is #9 Techstar (6-1), who could use the outside post to grab early position. The addition of first-time Lasix may also help this runner’s chances.
This is the most challenging race in the sequence, as several runners appear capable of winning. Because of that, spreading out in this leg may be the best approach.
The horses we plan to include are #2 Proctor Street (9-2), #4 Destino d’Oro (5-2), and #8 And One More Time (6-1). Of the three, #8 And One More Time offers the best value. Her BRISnet run style fits the projected pace of this race very well.
Jockey Javier Castellano should be able to place her in a comfortable stalking position behind the leaders before making a move turning for home. Her last race can be forgiven after a poor start left her compromised right from the gate.
This race is where we are willing to take a stand with #9 Kokomotion (9-2). She will be ridden by Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez for the first time and is trained by Whit Beckman, who has been having a strong meet.
Kokomotion was impressive in her first start at Tampa Bay Downs and already has a win at this distance over the course. With that experience and a top rider taking the reins, she looks like a strong candidate to repeat that performance.
Race 11 – The Tampa Bay Derby (Grade 3, 1 1/16 Mile Dirt – $400K)
The final leg of the Pick 5 brings us to the Tampa Bay Derby. Horses like #6 Further Ado (9-5) and #9 Canaletto (5-2) will understandably attract plenty of betting support.
However, we are focusing on #5 Powershift (7-2), who picks up John Velazquez in the saddle. His previous performance at Tampa Bay Downs produced a strong 96 Beyer Speed Figure, and that effort came over this very track.
The race that #6 Further Ado won at Keeneland by 20 lengths may look impressive on paper, but Keeneland’s surface can sometimes exaggerate margins of victory and speed figures. Powershift’s proven form at Tampa could make the difference.
Podcast Schedule and Final Thoughts
Be sure to tune in Friday at 3 PM for our Happy Hour Show, where we will take a closer look at both the Tampa Bay Derby and the San Felipe at Santa Anita. Also remember that our Saturday show will air at the special time of 11:30 AM this week.
You can catch Let ‘em Run on the Sports Talk Media Network, along with several streaming apps and social media channels.
And as always, remember to bet smart, cheer hard, and enjoy the ride. Fast horses can lead to some serious fun. When it is all said and done… Let ‘em Run.
