TWO ELITE OFFENSES FACE OFF TO FINISH OFF SUNDAY CARD!
Sunday Night games are always heavily bet games as most bettors that lose all Sunday or worse all weekend then this one is what we call “THE BAILOUT SPECIAL”. When I looked ahead at all the Sunday and Monday night matchups before this season kicked off this was the game I was most excited to watch. Two of the elite teams facing off on national TV in what is usually a really fun game to watch as the stars surely know the whole world is watching. I fully expect this game will NOT disappoint the viewers.
The one shocker coming in is not many folks (me included) had the 3 Chiefs losses after 5 games on their bingo card. It’s been a strange start for the Chiefs who once again are playing tons of really close games but this year they are (0-3) in one score games, including a tough late loss on Monday night to the Jax Jaguars. The Chiefs can definitely not afford a 4th loss in 6 games so I fully expect the playbook by KC HC/OC Reid to get fully opened for this big game. These two teams really have almost identical stats on both sides of the ball through 5 games.
LIONS NOW SURGING OFF OPENING GAME LOSS TO GREEN BAY!
Detroit has been simply magnificent in the regular season the past few years and when they lost their opener in Green Bay by 2 TD’s many thought did losing its OC and DC in the offseason cost them this season being a loaded team again? Well 4 straight wins and the Offense scoring 52, 38, 34, and 37 points dispelled that false thinking quickly. The one thing lost in the opening loss to GB was the Defense held GB to only (78R/188P). It was the Offense that never got on track as their Top 3 OL got bullied and run thru all game long (Goff sacked 4x and 1 Int) even though they held a 35–25 Time of Possession advantage. I always throw out Game 1 performances now that most starters rarely play (if at all) and so that is really their first real work after weeks of watching worthless Pre-season games.
No team in the NFL has as many stud playmakers as the Lions do and the OL since that debacle vs. GB has been lights out for QB Goff (sacked only 4x the past 4 games – all wins). The Lions Defense has been solid getting pressure on opposing QB’s (15 sacks) and they have been turnover monsters with (6 INT’S/3 Fumble recoveries). One of the best things I’ve seen watching Lions tapes is their LB play has been elite and their gap intensity discipline has been fantastic. They have allowed one QB run for over 10 yards (13 yards last week vs. Cinci QB Browning). The Lions D is allowing only (3.3) yards after the catch = #1 in NFL). They are forcing opposing Offenses to really work longer drives to score points. But one thing about past stats is they are only good if all the same players suit up and this week the Lions Defense comes in decimated by injury to almost the entire secondary. Top CB’s Arnold, Reed and Maddux are all out for this game and secondary players Branch and Joseph missed practice time this week nursing injuries. The Lions need to pray that Branch/Joseph can suit up or this could be one very long night.
THE CHIEFS OFFENSE SEEMS TO HAVE GOTTEN BACK ON TRACK SINCE WORTHY RETURNED TO LINEUP!
My favorite line over my 36 year Radio Show career was previewing games and no phrase says it better than “SPEED KILLS”. The Chiefs Offense started season missing stud Rice and then was without speedster Xavier Worthy for basically first 3 games. Since he came back the Defenses can’t defend the same especially with youngster Thornton (1 of 3 Chiefs track stars) taking the lid off deep already catching 5 deep passes for 186 yards and a whopping (37ypc) average. It’s tough to cover 3 speedsters and so what happens is the RB’s have less loaded boxes to slow them and savvy TE Kelce is now often getting wide open for easy catches (12 catches with 6 for first downs) the past 2 games. With Worthy back in the lineup the Chiefs scored 37 and 28 points.
The KC Run game looked explosive last week vs. Jax gaining 158 yards on just 22 carries (7.2 ypr) and 3 TD’s. Chiefs QB Mahomes has thrown 26 deep passes (20+ yards in air) and so to avoid getting burned deep they have allowed some running lanes for Mahomes after sending his WR’s out deep, the Chiefs are calling Mahomes run plays (not scrambles where nobody is open). The result has been Mahomes rushing for 190 rushing yards on 28 carries (6.8 ypr). The Chiefs have secured first downs 71% of Mahomes rushes on third downs. The advantage for the Chiefs has been they have dominated the total plays the past 3 games (197-160) and possessed the ball (99 minutes – 81 minutes).
Last week the Chiefs big problem wasn’t gaining yards at will, it was committing way too many penalties (13 – 109 yards). You usually walk away with B2B wins when your Offense is piling up 858 total yards.
BOTH DEFENSES COULD BE IN FOR A LONG SUNDAY NIGHT!
I already told you the bad news of a decimated Secondary for the Lions Defense but the big problem for the Chiefs Defense this season is they allow (8.3) yards after the catch (worst in the NFL) as they have been destroyed by “PLAY ACTION” passes from opposing QB’s. Now they are facing Lions QB Goff who the past few years has simply excelled in Play Action pass plays and we’ve seen Goff complete 15 straight passes and get into these crazy grooves where he almost never misses a receiver. Goff should feast vs. the Chiefs Defensive coverage defending Play Action as they are allowing (78%) pass completion rate (3rd worst). The most alarming problem the Chiefs Defense has is their Superman Pass Rusher Chris Jones has been on a milk carton thru 5 games (only 7 tackles, 6 QB hits and 1 sack and a terrible pressure rate of only 12.9%! OUCH!!
FINAL PASS:
With the Lions Secondary so banged up and the Chiefs Offense starting to look like the Super Bowl days I fully expect the Chiefs to hit at least 28 points here. The Lions OL should protect Goff well enough for him to get into one of his patented streaks of completely lots of passes as the Lions Offense is hitting full throttle coming into this game. I expect the Lions and the Chiefs to trade blows back and forth all night long with lots of huge plays as both Defenses simply struggle. Look for lots of fireworks and for some sneaky tricks to come out as well. Likely most exciting game of the Week 5 Sunday card.
Grab your popcorn folks and enjoy the game. May all your wagers be Winning ones!
FINAL NOTE:
Get my Free Weekly Football Betting Magazine Stats Pages at: GARYWINS.COM
college championship weekend The 2025 college football season kicks off with one of the most electrifying Week 1 slates in recent memory. With playoff contenders
By: Matthew Weatherby
White smoke has risen from the Nittany Lion atop Beaver Stadium. Penn State has its new Head Coach in Matt Campbell. It was 54 long days since the Nittany Lions fired now Virginia Tech Head Coach James Franklin. They got turned down, people paid, and honestly publicly humiliated throughout the process. Now Campbell from Iowa State is set to take over in Happy Valley. Hoping to calm the mobs coming for Pat Kraft and his job.
This report came a few minutes ago from ESPN’s Pete Thamel, who said Penn State was finalizing a deal for Matt Campbell to become the head coach.
Penn State has finally found its guy, and funny enough, it is a similar route they took when they hired James Franklin in 2014. Franklin’s pedigree was that of a guy who appeared to do more with less. He was the most successful Vanderbilt Head coach until Clark Lea.
Campbell is the same. He won at his first stop, being Toledo’s Head Coach, where he went 35-15, good for a .700 winning percentage. Since he took the job at Iowa State, he has enjoyed some similar success, going 72-55 from 2016-25.
Now to the doing more with less portion. Over the 11 recruiting classes that he brought in at Iowa State, the average ranking was 55.8 in the national standings. Not exactly that of a top-tier program. He has developed that talent, however, with guys like Brock Purdy and Breece Hall being stars in the NFL now.
He also won Coach of the Year 3 times in the BIG 12, receiving the award in 2017, ’18, and ’20. Campbell was also the 2015 MAC Coach of the Year.
With the influx of cash I expect Campbell to receive, in terms of NIL money for the roster, it is not unreasonable to think of this as a great hire. With his coaching pedigree, you would expect the results he was able to give at Iowa State to only be magnified with a bigger brand and budget at Penn State.
What Campbell means for Penn State
It means that Pat Kraft might actually be able to sleep peacefully tonight. He has been contacting seemingly everyone, trying to get them to come to Happy Valley. None of those came to fruition; instead, he was getting them paid at the places they were already employed.
Here, the question that reigns supreme: will it be enough?
This search was an unmitigated disaster, from the inability to get anyone to take their money, all of the negative press, and the rumors of Jimmy Sexton freezing Penn State out for the way they handled Franklin. It could not have been worse for Penn State. You pair that with a group of Paterno people who wanted Terry Smith to be the Head Coach. I wonder if this hire is enough to calm the waters in Happy Valley.
One thing I do know for sure is that winning cures all. Matt Campbell might just be the guy to save Pat Kraft.
Capital Sports Network will be your home for Let ’em Run Happy Hour
Let ’em Run is breaking down races at some new venues, and we will continue to expand our horizons with a variety of tracks, as we listen to what our viewers and readers have to say.
We are breaking down interesting races at Laurel Park and Turfway Park (a little nighttime action) that will be run on Saturday. Then we turn our attention to Aqueduct on Saturday, where there is The Remsen Gr2, a Kentucky Derby prep, and the signature race…The Cigar Mile.
Saturday Roundup Reminder
Be sure to tune into the Saturday “Let ’em Run Roundup” at 12:30 where we will bring even more insight after any scratches and other changes. So catch us this weekend on multiple streaming apps and social channels!!
Race 6 — 2:23 EST — The Maryland Juvenile — 125K — 7 Furlongs (Dirt) Some talented 2 y.o.’s line up for this race, at the always tricky distance for young runners at 7 furlongs. I am going to lean on #3 Sometime 9-2. Was ambitiously placed in the Iroquois against some of the best milers in the division. Breeding out of Take Charge Indy, who came in 1st at The Florida Derby and The Clark Handicap, so the talent is there. The #4 Biker Bailey 4-1 came out of a Md 20k, but took over the field and posted a 70 BSF. Could go to the front and not look back. Bet = $10 Ex Box 3,4 = $20
Saturday 12/6 — Turfway Park
Race 7 — 8:55 EST — The Boone County — 125K — 1 ¼ (Synthetic) Big field to choose from gives us plenty of options and value to boot. Jockey Fernando De La Cruz hops aboard #10 Swift Delivery 5-1, 1 of 2 Mark Casse entrants. A failed turf experiment, in between two Gr3 races on synthetic, make this horse the one to beat. Tough post, but De La Cruz can work out a trip and close on the field. The #1 Funtastic Again 5-1, is the horse for course and surface. Has ran in a steady diet of 6 Graded races last 6x, and now gets relief and a good post to go to the front. Jockey Gerado Corrales is very familiar with this runner.
Saturday 12/6 — Aqueduct (Races 7–11)
Race 7 — 2:11 EST — Alw 88K N1X — 1 Mile (Dirt)
Nice start to the late P5 for Let ’em Run, with a big field of 12 runners. Hard to look past #6 Life and Times 8-5. As a student of pace figures, this runner has an early pace figure of 142!! Out of Justify, and 2nd time out runners for that sire often improve…scary. Likely to have some company up front, but just too fast. Bet = P5 = 6 / All / All / 6 / 2 = $78 (based on current entries)
Race 8 — 2:39 EST — The NY Stallion Series — 500K (Fillies) — 7 Furlongs (Dirt)
Another full field of 2 y.o. fillies running at 7 furlongs. Going with #12 Daniella Marie 6-1, the entry for the “other Chad”… trainer Chad Summers, who is heating up and excellent with 2.y.o’s. Jockey Kendrick Caramouche stays on, and never really asked her in last, when she won by 9 ¼ lengths. Likely post time fave #10 Hot Currency 7-2, looking to improve with stud jockey Flavian Prat retaining the mount.
Race 9 — 3:08 EST — The Remsen Gr2 — 250K — 1 ⅛ (Dirt)
Kentucky Derby prep race, with 12 runners ready to go. The #11 Talkin 5-1 for trainer Danny Gargan is my top choice. Gargan is looking to hit the Derby trail again with a good one here, out of top Sire Good Magic. Runner beat Further Ado in Maiden, and that runner is labeled as a Derby favorite, so why not this guy. Jockey Kendrick Caramouche has options from a tough post, with interesting Brisnet early and late pace figures both high, and nearly the same (early 106 / late 102). Once again the Flavian Prat runner #2 Paladin 3-1 will get much deserved attention.
Race 10 — 3:37 EST — The Cigar Mile Gr2 — 500K — 1 Mile (Dirt)
Really can’t see anyone beating the fast and talented #6 Phileas Fogg 8-5. Two new wrinkles; with blinkers going on and jockey Joel Rosario taking the mount. Trainer Rodriguez Gustavo gave him a break pointing to this race, and said “it’s showtime“; when asked how he was doing!!
Two notes per Brisnet, lone E speed, and best pace to the 6 furlong distance, by a lot. So should have company early, but will then pull away to the wire.
Race 11 — The NY Stallion Series — 500K — 7 Furlongs
Once again the Big A putting out a big field for bettors. Trainer Butch Reid has #2 Parker Boone 8-5 ready to make some noise. Runner won by 12 ¼ 1st time out and was under wraps early. Naysayers will say “who did he beat”, but runners out of Solomini are often very good, very early. Will have other speed to deal with, but a ground saving post should seal the deal.
Final Notes
Stay tuned as we continue to grow, and tune in on Saturday for our 12:30 Podcast, with scratches and changes affecting our picks. And as the saying goes, Let ‘em Run.
NFL and COLLEGE FOOTBALL – THE sec How Sports Is Saving Broadcast TV: The Rise of Live Programming in a Streaming-Dominated Era
Escalating costs of NFL and MLB renewals, combined with cable decline and streaming fragmentation, are likely to make ESPN, Amazon, Apple, CBS, NBC, Fox, and YouTube more cautious about paying significantly higher college football rights fees. This financial pressure could slow down aggressive expansion and reduce the incentive to add ACC schools like Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina, and Miami, especially since their recent on-field performance has weakened their market value.
NFL & MLB renewals dominate budgets: The NFL’s Thanksgiving 2025 ratings shattered records, proving why networks will commit billions more to retain rights. MLB’s upcoming renewal adds another heavy obligation.
Streaming entrants already stretched: Amazon, Apple, and YouTube are investing heavily in NFL packages and global sports, limiting their appetite for additional college conference deals.
Cable volatility: Cord-cutting erodes traditional revenue streams, forcing networks to be more selective with rights investments.
College Conference Dynamics
Big Ten & SEC remain secure: Their multibillion-dollar deals ($8B+ for Big Ten, $3B for SEC) ensure stability and make them the only conferences positioned to expand further but only if there is more money to get from the media partners.
ACC locked in: ESPN extended its deal through 2036, giving the conference stability but limiting renegotiation. This makes poaching ACC schools less financially attractive unless ESPN adjusts terms.
Big 12 opportunism: Benefited from Pac-12’s collapse, but future expansion depends on whether networks see value in adding mid-tier programs.
Risks for ACC Schools
Performance matters: Florida State, Clemson, UNC, and Miami have struggled with subpar seasons, reducing their bargaining power. Networks are less likely to pay premiums for underperforming brands.
Revenue-sharing pressures: Following the House v. NCAA settlement, schools must share revenue with athletes, increasing the need for higher payouts. If networks won’t pay more, weaker conferences risk losing schools without replacement value.
Exposure vs. payout trade-off: Streaming platforms may prefer cherry-picking marquee matchups rather than funding entire conferences, further reducing incentives to add schools.
Likely Outcomes
Slower expansion: Networks will prioritize retaining NFL/MLB rights over funding new college realignment.
Selective poaching: Big Ten and SEC may still target top ACC schools if they rebound competitively, but only if the economics justify it.
ACC stability (for now): ESPN’s long-term deal through 2036 makes immediate exits difficult, though lawsuits from FSU and Clemson could test that structure.
Bottom Line
The financial strain of NFL and MLB renewals means networks are unlikely to pay dramatically more for college football in the near term. That reduces the incentive for conferences to expand aggressively, making another Pac-12-style collapse less likely in the short run — but leaving underperforming ACC schools vulnerable if their value doesn’t rebound.
Politics8 years ago