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Summers warns U.S. likely headed to recession, 2 million jobless

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Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers warned that the U.S. is now likely headed toward a recession, with potentially 2 million Americans put out of work, thanks to the tariff increases now in train.

“It’s more likely than not that we’re going to have a recession — and in the context of a recession, we’ll see an extra 2 million people be unemployed,” Summers said on Bloomberg Television’s Wall Street Week with David Westin. “We’ll see losses in household income” of $5,000 per family or more, he said.

There will be “very important choices in the weeks ahead” with regard to tariff plans by President Donald Trump that exceed even those of 1930 that “made the depression great,” said Summers, a Harvard University professor and paid contributor to Bloomberg TV. It would be wise to be “backing off the policies that have been announced,” he said.

Financial markets are “speaking with incredible clarity” about the impact of the tariffs, Summers said — highlighting that stocks have been surging on any headlines suggesting relief, and plunging on news suggesting the levies will go ahead.

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“We’re very likely, in the context of a recession, to see markets reach levels significantly below their current level,” Summers said. “I’d be surprised if the bottom is yet in with respect to this phase and markets,” he also said.

A U.S. economic downturn would have various other negative effects, he noted, including a wider budget deficit. “There will be financial distress that will affect higher-risk companies and also higher-risk countries in the global economy.”

Market ‘Alarm’

While it’s “hard to know” about the risk of an economic slump morphing into a financial crisis, the former Treasury chief highlighted the tightening in regulations since the 2007-09 meltdown, which was directed at ensuring financial firms are well capitalized and that the system’s so-called plumbing was functional. Deputy Treasury Secretary Michael Faulkender earlier Tuesday said that “liquidity continues to flow” and there were no “impediments” despite the market volatility.

“I’m less worried about the internal integrity of markets than I am by the external message that markets are sending — which I think is one of alarm,” Summers said. In the absence of some corporate executives and academic leaders speaking up about their concerns with policy actions, markets are “such an important signal of where things are going,” he said.

For the first time, the U.S. is facing a recession caused by its own policy actions, he indicated. “There is nothing in the outside world that is causing this challenge. It is induced by the words and deeds of President Trump and his administration,” he said. “I don’t know that there really is a historical precedent for what’s being done now.”

“There would be a substantial resumption of normality” in the economy if the government backs off on its “policy errors,” he said.

‘B’ Student

“There’s nothing complicated about this,” Summers also said.  It is “introductory economics” that the imposition of a huge tax hike on the middle class, clouded with uncertainty, damages businesses and forces the economy downwards, Summers said. “Any ‘B’ student will know that the answer to that is that it’s a supply shock that raises prices and raises unemployment.”

It will be “enormously costly for the United States and for the world economy” if Washington jacks up tariff rates back to pre-World War II levels, Summers said. “The losses to markets, if all of this were sure to be implemented, would be many trillion dollars. And the stock market only measures a very small fraction of the losses to the economy from policies of this kind.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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The new leader of the Catholic Church will inherit a financial mess that Pope Francis spent much of his reign trying to fix

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Even on his deathbed, Pope Francis didn’t pause from pursuing a dogged campaign that distinguished his reign: reforming the Vatican’s infamously troubled finances. On February 27, the pontiff’s 13th day at Rome’s Gemelli Hospital suffering from exhaustion and bronchitis, the pontiff unveiled the formation of a high-level commission assigned to raise donations for helping plug chronic budget deficits. Francis launched the fund-raising enterprise as a gambit aimed at blunting demands by top officials in the Curia, his vast administrative arm, that the leader of the world’s 1.3 billion Catholics halt his drive for deep spending cuts. The bureaucrats bristled at the Pope’s recent draconian moves: Since 2021, he’d slashed salaries for the Church’s 250-odd cardinals three times. In 2023, he nixed the rich housing subsidies for elite staff, and last September for the first time in decades demanded that the Vatican set a rigorous timeline for achieving a “zero deficit” regime.

When Pope Francis passed away at age 88 on Easter Monday in his modest Vatican apartment, his brave campaign had made big strides, but stopped short of the promised land.

This writer began covering the Pope’s righteous charge right at the creation. In early 2014, I traveled to Rome for a firsthand view of all the new and historic financial guard rails and disciplines Francis was installing, as well as the influx of business experts he’d summoned across the globe to assist him. When Francis took office the previous year, just about everything that involved how the Vatican handled money needed fixing: the huge and ever-rising gap between revenues and expenses; the leadership dominated by clergy lacking expertise in accounting and investing; and a scandal-scarred reputation. The stain of corruption, or at least incompetence, lingered from the Banco Ambrosiano affair of the early 1980s, when financier Roberto Calvi scammed the Institute for Religious Works, a.k.a. the Vatican Bank, in a caper that cost the IOR $250 million and emptied a big portion of its reserves.

Days after his institution collapsed, Calvi’s body was found hanging under London’s Blackfriars Bridge; the British courts couldn’t determine whether the cause of death was suicide or murder. Calvi’s schemes duped his “buddy” who headed the IOR, Archbishop Paul Marcinkus, whom in the mid-1980s I interviewed at the IOR’s home in the ninth-century Gothic prison built by Pope Nicholas VI. The six-foot-eight Marcinkus, dubbed the Gorilla, had risen in the Vatican from a power base as Pope John Paul II’s bodyguard. During our meeting, he chain-smoked Camels and pontificated for hours about how the IOR was the Vatican’s biggest moneymaker courtesy of pocketing the “spread” between the tiny interest it paid the Jesuits and other religious orders for their deposits, and the much higher rates it garnered re-channeling those funds to European banks. 

On Ambrosiano, Marcinkus insisted that charges he’d “guaranteed” the bank’s debts on behalf of the IOR was a bum rap, and that the Vatican only repaid the $250 million to safeguard its image. Shortly before, the Italian government had dropped an arrest warrant for Marcinkus that had exiled him for a year to the Vatican grounds, a liberation that perhaps explained his ebullient mood. “I may be a lousy banker,” he told me not-for-quotation; “but at least I’m not in jail.” 

Francis quickly showed that in money matters, he was a new kind of leader

My sources were all business leaders newly appointed to aid in the Pope’s offensive. On background, they related a dramatic meeting in the summer of 2013 where Francis first addressed a dimension of his domain that he deemed crucial—its chronically stumbling role as a commercial enterprise. The pontiff had appointed a team of seven business leaders from around the world as a committee to pinpoint the problems and recommend specifics for a broad overhaul. They included the French executive heading asset management for U.S. mutual fund giant Invesco, the CEO of German insurer ERGO, the chief of Malta’s largest bank, and the former prime minister of Singapore. 

Instead of holding the confab at the Apostolic Palace, the Renaissance showplace where pontiffs traditionally greeted visitors in high style, Francis ushered the distinguished guests into a nondescript conference room at the Casa Santa Marta, a five-story limestone guesthouse on the sub-luxury scale of a four-star hotel where the pontiff resided in a second-floor one-bedroom suite. No religious art or objects adorned the walls. Attired in a simple white cossack and metal cross, the Pope took the kind of highly managerial “I’m the boss” approach his invitees might have recognized from addressing their own lieutenants.

Speaking fluent Italian, pausing frequently so that a translator could repeat his words in English, the former cardinal of Buenos Aires stated that for his spiritual message to be credible, the Vatican’s finances had to be credible as well. The Vatican hadn’t overcome the practices formed by centuries of secrecy and intrigue to either manage its money efficiently, or issue a coherent accounting on where the money came from and where it was spent. His primary mission, the new Pope stressed, was helping the poor and underprivileged. The Vatican budget careening from small surpluses to yawning deficits undermined that goal by inhibiting charity. “When the administration’s fat it’s unhealthy,” he declared, adding that he wanted a far leaner and efficient organization that would prove “self-sustaining.” Getting there would require strict rules and protocols. 

It particularly incensed the pontiff that the managers kept paying overruns on fixed price contracts, when the businesses should have eaten the excess billings. From now on, he admonished, when the Vatican gets a bill for a project where it’s the contractor who is legally responsible for the extra costs: “We don’t pay!” Like a great CEO, the Pope charted a clear strategy. As one participant characterized the command: “Let’s make money for the poor.” Francis finished by intoning, “I trust you. You’re the experts. I want solutions to these problems.” Pope Francis wasn’t a micromanager who’d study balance sheets, but he was a born leader expert at establishing clear objectives and choosing specialists needed to meet them—he’d rely on real bankers not amateurs in the Marcinkus mold. Then, without taking questions or extending pleasantries, he left the room.

On finances, Pope Francis proved the greatest of all holy reformers. But the Vatican’s budget woes persist to this day

Following the meeting, that prestigious board helped design a radically new architecture directed not by the religious leaders who’d run the machine for centuries, but seasoned managers and consultants from around the world. The new regime hired KMPG to install internationally accepted accounting principles replacing the old crazy quilt of standards, EY to scrutinize the books of the tiny nation’s stores and utilities, and Deloitte & Touche and Spencer Stuart to respectively audit the P&L and recruit fresh talent at the Vatican Bank. Pope Francis also established a new body called the Secretariat of the Economy that for the first time centralized all authority under a single agency and leader. Today, the top official is an MIT grad who has spent a long career in management positions for Catholic universities and prominent institutions of the church.

Tighter oversight brought new discipline to runaway spending and boosted investment returns, but didn’t end the Vatican’s long history of headline-grabbing misdeeds. In 2014, the cardinal who served as second-ranking official in the Secretariat of State schemed with still another shady Italian magnate to purchase shares in a London building; the Secretariat subsequently took full control of the property for the highly inflated price of roughly $400 million, then sold it a few years later at a $150 million loss. An investigation launched in 2019 discovered that many millions of Euros disappeared in kickbacks and self-dealing. But this time, the authorities imposed tough justice. The Vatican courts sent eight people including the cardinal to jail, and levied fines on two others.

Shortly after taking power, Pope Francis ordered a hiring freeze that remains in force to this day. Indeed, his strategy of shrinking the workforce through attrition has succeeded. But the Vatican is still haunted by the burden of the way-underfunded pension plans that he inherited. The Vatican’s financial world is divided into two parts. The first is the City State, the 110-acre sovereign country that generally runs a budget on the scale of a midsize municipality, employs the ceremonial Swiss guards and “gendarme” police force, and generally generates an operating surplus due to big revenues from the Vatican museum, the world’s second most visited museum behind the Louvre, and the likes of sales of souvenir coins. 

The second is the Holy See or Curia, the Pope’s sprawling bureaucracy that does everything from detective work to naming new saints to operating the equivalent of embassies in three dozen countries to operating nine cabinet-like “congregations.” It’s perpetually in deficit—once again, largely via what it owes its legions of retirees. In recent years, the Curia has been spending around $800 to $900 million a year, and running structural deficits of well over $50 million. And that’s after allocating for operating expenses tens of millions of dollars in “Peter’s Pence.” That’s money gathered in the collection baskets passed through church aisles in from Sydney to Warsaw on the Sunday marking the feasts of Saints Peter and Paul in late June. It’s one time the world’s faithful, rich and poor alike, send funds to the Vatican en masse.

The late pontiff always wanted to steer Peter’s Pence solely to its original purpose of supporting the impoverished. It was a goal he cherished but didn’t live to achieve. Still, Pope Francis worked a near miracle bringing transparency, competence, and integrity to perhaps the most notoriously byzantine corner of the financial world. From his hospital bed in his final days, the pontiff kept fighting the Vatican establishment for reform that elevated sound money management as a tool for filling the role of his model and namesake, St. Francis of Assisi, the 13th century Italian friar devoted to raising the downtrodden. Only if his successor shares Francis’s rare knack for business strategy will the job be finished. 

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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Elon Musk worries Chinese companies will fill out the world’s Top 10 robot companies—but claims Tesla is, and will stay, No. 1

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Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk is bullish on how he sees the competition in what is arguably the next frontier for his U.S.-headquartered company—humanoid robots.

“With respect to humanoid robots, I don’t think there’s any company in any country that can match Tesla,” Musk said in an earnings call Tuesday in response to a question about competition between China and the U.S. in the development of physical AI and drones.

“Tesla and SpaceX are number one and then now I’m a little concerned that on the leaderboard, ranks two through 10 will be Chinese companies, but I’m confident rank one will be Tesla,” Musk continued.

He did not elaborate on why he thought Tesla ranked number one globally in the development of humanoid robots, and the earnings call ended following that comment.

It’s not the first time Musk has been bullish about his company’s position. In November 2023, Musk claimed the top 10 automakers of the future will be Tesla followed by nine Chinese companies. Then in January last year, Musk said on an earnings call that without trade barriers, Chinese EV companies would “pretty much demolish most other car companies in the world”.

Musk and Tesla can arguably be referred to as the first mover when it comes to electric vehicles. Yet a few notable endeavors, like robotaxis, have shown that Musk can be late delivering on his promises.

Optimus debut

Tesla debuted its Optimus humanoid robot in 2022 and on an earnings call in January this year, Musk hyped humanoid robots again, saying that the project alone could generate more than $10 trillion in revenue.

But since Optimus’ debut, China and its companies have arguably captured global attention for advancements in humanoid robot development.

Take for example Unitree’s dozen human-like robots dancing at the annual Lunar New Year gala that is watched by tens of millions in China during the Lunar New Year holiday. Since then, several other videos of humanoid robots doing roundhouse kicks and side flips have popped up on the internet.

Industrial robots already automate parts of manufacturing, and the consumer market has had task-specific robots like robo-vacuums for years. But developing humanoid robots that can mimic human-like movement and capabilities would allow such robots to assist in healthcare settings, take over household chores, or even do hazardous tasks.

Earlier this year, China, which has an ageing population, formalized a policy that aimed to use such robots to assist in elderly-care settings.

Tesla’s robot issues

In the U.S., besides Tesla, the high profile humanoid robotics start-up Figure AI has also been catching attention in Silicon Valley; it is backed by Nvidia, Microsoft, and Jeff Bezos. Figure AI announced a commercial agreement with BMW early last year—though it appears to still be in its infancy.

Yet while Musk may be bullish that Tesla is number one when it comes to robotics, he also revealed on the earnings call that the production of Optimus has been disrupted by China’s rare earth export curbs.

“Optimus was affected by the magnet issue from China,” Musk said before adding that he’s hopeful to get a license to “use the rare earth magnets”.

Beijing added seven rare-earth minerals to its export control list in response to punitive tariffs imposed by the U.S. on China. Rare earths are important materials used for products ranging from powerful magnets to electric vehicles and fighter jets.

China is the world’s largest producer of rare earth metals and is also home to most of the world’s processing capacity.

Musk robot comments follow a dismal quarterly report that showed automotive sales tumbling 20% year-on-year, to $14 billion. and a nearly 40% drop in net income to $409 million, far below the over $600 million estimated by Wall Street.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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Elon Musk was supposed to work in government as a special employee for 130 days. He just pledged to spend ‘a day or two’ per week for the remainder of Trump’s 4-year term

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  • Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced on Tuesday he would turn his attention back to the electric vehicle maker but said he would likely still work in government as long as President Trump would have him. However, as a special government employee, Musk was only supposed to spend 130 days per year on government work. With about 36 weeks left in the year, Musk’s total time in the SGE role could potentially span 126 to 162 days. 

Tesla investors have been begging Elon Musk to turn his focus back to the electric vehicle maker and execute on his lofty plans for self-driving fleets of taxis, humanoid robots, and unsupervised full-self driving technology. During an earnings call with analysts on Tuesday, Musk finally said he would oblige, and vowed to spend less time on the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and more time at Tesla, where he is the CEO. 

“Probably starting next month, in May, my time allocation at DOGE will drop significantly,” Musk said. “I’ll have to continue doing it. I think we have the remainder of the President’s term just to make sure that the waste and fraud that we stopped does not come roaring back, which it’ll do if it has the chance.”

Musk said he would spend “a day or two per week on government matters for as long as the President would like me to do so, as long as it is useful.” 

“But starting next month, I will be allocating far more of my time to Tesla now that the major work of establishing the Department of Government Efficiency is done,” Musk declared.

The Tesla CEO did not address the time limit on his work as a special government employee (SGE), however, which limits him to serving no more than 130 days within a 365-day period. But he will have to be judicious about how he allocates his Trump days in order to stay within the rules. With roughly 36 weeks left in the year, spending one or two days per week could potentially see Musk spend a total of 126 days to 162 days, given that he’s already spent about 90 days as an SGE thus far. 

That designation allows Musk to serve in outside roles and on boards without making the public disclosures about his finances that would be required of a typical government worker. In addition to Tesla, Musk is also closely involved with a collection of privately-held companies he has founded including SpaceX, X, the Boring Company, Neuralink, and xAI. Typically CEOs and board members of companies resign their roles in the private sector before taking on assignments in government positions. 

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Despite the lack of clarity over Musk’s time assisting Trump, Tesla investors took his decision as a balm on the troubled automaker. Following Musk’s remarks—which generated news headlines around the country—after-hours trading in Tesla stock shot up more than 5%.

The bump came even as Tesla announced another disappointing quarter for investors, with tumbling operating income, net income, and operating margins.  Revenues were down 9% to $19 billion although energy revenues were up 67% to $2.73 billion. Tesla also had a cash position of about $37 billion, up 38% year over year.

Tesla’s concerned stockholders

With hordes of retail shareholders in its stock, Tesla’s investor relations team takes questions in advance of its quarterly calls. Among the 161 questions submitted about Elon Musk himself, the top three largest retail shareholders asked about his role in government and what Tesla was doing to mitigate harm to the company. 

“Boycotts, protests, vandalism, negative headlines, and a stock slide have been sparked by Elon Musk’s participation in changes to U.S. gov’t services & employment,” wrote a stockholder with about 88,000 shares. “Is the Tesla board discussing whether their CEO should focus fully on Tesla and leave gov’t to elected politicians?”

Another investor with 365,000 shares asked, “How is the company planning to deal with the impact of Elon’s partnership with the current administration?”

The third question with the most shares represented, also the third most-upvoted by other investors, asked: “With Elon’s involvement with the federal government the Tesla brand has been under attack, more so than usual. What steps are the company taking to alleviate these attacks and educate the public about the benefits of Tesla?”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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