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Stocks: Bank of America warns fund managers just triggered a contrarian ‘sell’ signal

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Bank of America’s “Bull & Bear Indicator” rose from 7.9 to 8.5 in the last few days, triggering its contrarian “sell” signal for risk assets, according to a note from analyst Michael Hartnett and his colleagues seen by Fortune this morning. The indicator is derived from BofA’s regular fund manager survey, which asks 200-plus investment managers about their appetite for risk. The logic of the Bull & Bear Indicator is that when everyone in the market is bullish, it’s time to leave.

S&P 500 futures were up 0.25% this morning. The last session closed up 0.79%. The index remains a little less than 2% beneath its all-time high. Markets in Asia largely closed up this morning. Europe and the UK were flat in early trading. Whether stocks are overvalued—especially tech stocks—has been a running theme in the equity markets all year long. 

BofA’s sell signal has been activated 16 times since 2002, Hartnett says. On average, the MSCI All Country World Index (an index that represents stocks globally) declined by 2.4% afterwards, the bank says, with a maximum average drawdown of 8.5% by three months later.

The indicator has a record of being right 63% of the time—so it isn’t flawless. But BofA also notes that investors are in an unusually “risk-on” mood in equities right now: Last week saw a record inflow of $145 billion into equity exchange-traded funds, and the second-highest ever weekly inflow of money into U.S. stocks ($77.9 billion), Hartnett wrote. The indicator thus implies that a smart investor might want to become fearful given that others are too greedy.

Investor sentiment roughly correlates with sentiment in the Purchasing Managers Index, a survey of supply chain managers responsible for corporate buying. Right now, investors have broken ranks with the PMI, with the former being much more positive about future than the latter. They appear to be expecting the PMI to follow their lead, Hartnett argues.

“Investors [appear to be] bull positioned for ‘run-it-hot’ PMI & [earnings per share] acceleration on rate cuts, tariff cuts, tax cuts,” he told clients.

Conversely, assuming the market does not pull back—or a revesal is temporary—he predicts EPS growth of 9% for stocks in 2026 despite increased U.S. unemployment, and the threat of “bond vigilantes slowing [the] AI capex boom.”

Here’s a snapshot of the markets ahead of the opening bell in New York this morning:

  • S&P 500 futures are up 0.33% this morning. The last session closed up 0.79%. 
  • STOXX Europe 600 was flat in early trading. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was flat in early trading. 
  • Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 1.03%. 
  • China’s CSI 300 was up 0.34%. 
  • The South Korea KOSPI was up 0.65%. 
  • India’s NIFTY 50 was up 0.59%. 
  • Bitcoin was at $88K.
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Klarna partners with Coinbase to receive stablecoin funds from institutional investors

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After staying out of crypto for years, the buy-now-pay-later giant Klarna has been making a flurry of moves in the digital asset space. The latest example came on Friday when the company said it is partnering with the crypto exchange Coinbase to accept stablecoin funds from institutional investors.

Klarna’s business model revolves around supplying consumers with zero-interest loans to buy goods, an arrangement known as buy-now-pay-later, or BNPL. The Swedish firm earns money primarily by charging merchants a small fee to offer its services, and acquires capital via a banking arm that accepts deposits and issues bonds. Its partnership with Coinbase will let institutional investors front capital denominated in stablecoins, a type of cryptocurrency pegged to underlying assets like the U.S. dollar.

“Stablecoin connects us to an entirely new class of institutional investors,” said Niclas Neglén, Klarna’s CFO, in a statement.

Friday’s announcement is the latest foray into crypto from Klarna, which went public in September. In late November, Klarna launched its own stablecoin, KlarnaUSD, on a new blockchain backed by the fintech giant Stripe and the crypto venture capitalist Paradigm. About two weeks later, the company said it was working with the crypto wallet developer Privy, which is owned by Stripe, to work on potential crypto products for its users.

Klarna’s crypto integrations come as more fintechs and banks dabble in stablecoins, which proponents say are a faster and cheaper means to send and receive money than existing financial rails.

On Thursday, the neobank SoFi announced that it was launching its own stablecoin. In early December, Sony’s banking arm said it was exploring the issuance of its own dollar-backed token. And even Block, the fintech that’s historically been a devoted Bitcoin booster, said that it will integrate stablecoins into Cash App, the digital wallet the company owns. 

The rush into stablecoins follows a series of landmark moments for the crypto assets over the past year. In February, Stripe closed a $1.1 billion deal to acquire the stablecoin startup Bridge. In June, the stablecoin issuer Circle went public in one of the year’s hottest IPOs. And, in July, President Donald Trump signed into law a new bill that creates a regulatory framework for stablecoins.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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AI hyperscalers have room for ‘elevated debt issuance’—even after their recent bond binge, BofA says

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The tech giants fueling the AI boom generate so much cash relative to their debt that they have more than enough room to issue more, according to Bank of America.

In a note this week, analysts looked at the top five publicly traded AI hyperscalers: Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Oracle.

BofA pointed out that while the companies can fund their near-term capital expenditures with cash, they are tapping debt markets for balance-sheet flexibility and better cost of capital. Last month alone, Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon raised tens of billions of dollars in the bond market.

Operating cash flow for the big five hyperscalers is expected to hit $577 billion this year from $378 billion in 2023, while debt should climb from $356 billion to $433 billion.

That means their overall debt burden is actually getting lighter as the debt-to-cash ratio should dip from 0.94 to 0.75.

“Given the hyperscalers’ historically conservative capital allocation and balance sheet policies, elevated debt issuance is possible, as evident by the recent bond deals from Meta, Alphabet and Amazon,” BofA said.

And plenty of additional cash is on the way. By 2029, operating cash flow is seen jumping 95% to $1.1 trillion, while capex is forecast to grow at a much slower pace of 58% to $632 billion.

But then there’s Oracle. Unlike the other AI hyperscalers, it will have negative free cash flow until 2029, meaning its capex will exceed cash from operations, according to BofA. As a result, it doesn’t have much capacity to take on more debt.

Indeed, fears about Oracle’s debt binge have rattled the overall AI stock trade as the company isn’t a cash machine like its AI peers.

Recent earnings guidance was also weak, and the company raised its forecast for fiscal 2026 capex by another $15 billion. In addition, surging lease obligations have spooked Wall Street.

A Financial Times report on Wednesday that said alternative investments firm Blue Owl didn’t team up with Oracle on a data center after all piled on more concerns. Shares fell on the news, though the company’s development partner, Related Digital, said Blue Owl was outbid on the project and didn’t back out of it.

But even though debt may not pose a limit on hyperscalers’ ambitions, they still face physical limits, namely in building enough infrastructure fast enough to meet demand.

Data-center researcher Jonathan Koomey told Fortune’s Eva Roytburg that capital can be deployed instantly, but the equipment that capital must buy cannot. Tmelines for turbines, transformers, specialized cooling systems, and high-voltage gear have stretched into years, he explained.

“This happens every time there’s a massive shift in investment,” Koomey added. “Eventually manufacturers catch up, but not right away. Reality intervenes.”



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I’m a CEO who’s spent nearly 40 years talking to presidents, lawmakers and leaders about our long-term care crisis. They knew this moment was coming

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The long-term care system in our country isn’t on the verge of crisis—it’s already in one. Slowly, but undeniably, it is failing the very people it was meant to support.  

I’ve spent nearly five decades working across financial services, health care, and public  policy. I’ve served on presidential commissions, sat in closed-door briefings with lawmakers, and helped lead organizations working to meet the evolving needs of aging Americans. This crisis didn’t emerge overnight – we’ve seen it building for decades.  

For more than 30 years, commissions under Presidents George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton,  George W. Bush, and Barack Obama all reached the same conclusion: our entitlement  programs were never built to handle a rapidly aging population. There were moments when  real reform seemed possible—when ideas were on the table and momentum was building. But again and again, the opportunities slipped by with inaction. 

Now we’re living with the consequences. By 2036, the population aged 85+ will more than  double. We’ll need nearly one million new assisted living units to meet demand, but we’re on pace to build only 40% of that.  

Most Americans still don’t understand how long-term care works, what it costs, or how to  prepare for it. And the reality is stark: home care now averages $77,792 per year, assisted living $70,800, and a private nursing home room more than $127,000—and those numbers are rising.  

Nearly 70% of Americans turning 65 will need some form of care, but more than 95% of baby boomers lack private insurance to pay for it. Most will rely on unpaid family caregivers or Medicaid, which only steps in after someone has spent down nearly everything they have.  

We are not prepared. Not families. Not the system. Not the economy. Not the country.  

Let me be blunt: the chance to enact sweeping reforms in time to help the baby boomers has passed.  

Structural reforms to Medicare or Medicaid are unlikely in today’s political climate, and  new federal rules are making it even harder to qualify for the latter. Both programs face  long-term sustainability challenges, but broad reform remains politically difficult—even as  insolvency looms. That’s not defeatism. It’s realism. 

So where does that leave us? 

Focus on the possible

We must focus on what’s still possible. And that begins with rethinking how care is delivered, how we define quality, and how we help people afford it.  

First, we need better planning tools. Today, most families make care decisions in a crisis—confused, overwhelmed, and without clear guidance. We must bring the same clarity to  aging that we do to financial planning: nurse-led evaluations, accessible education, and  unbiased support; not just product sales.  

Second, we need to raise the bar on quality. Too often, care is chosen based on  convenience or cost, not standards. Especially in home and community-based settings,  we must define what good, person-centered care looks like and build networks around  those expectations. This doesn’t require sweeping legislation—just transparency, data, and accountability. 

Third, we must confront affordability. The system punishes the middle class: too poor to  self-fund care, too rich to qualify for Medicaid. We need smarter contracting, vetted  provider networks, and eventually, portable, flexible insurance products that fill the gap.  Memory care, for instance, costs up to 30% more than traditional assisted living. Medicare fully covers just 20 days. Most people are left to cobble together care with out-of-pocket spending and fragile safety nets.  

Fourth, we must shore up the workforce delivering care. Care workers are leaving the  industry faster than we can replace them, driven by low pay, high demands, and little  support. Families are filling the gap, providing approximately $600 billion in unpaid care  each year while balancing jobs and other responsibilities. Nearly 60% of employees have  already provided care to a loved one, and most expect to in the future. Strengthening this  workforce—paid and unpaid—must be part of any serious path forward. 

We should also support bipartisan proposals like the WISH Act, which would create a national backstop for catastrophic long-term care events and their associated costs. At the state level, Washington’s WA Cares program offers a modest but meaningful  foundation. These models, paired with thoughtful private insurance solutions, point to a more realistic path forward.  

Moving beyond identifying the problem

We know what the problem is and who it’s hurting.  

What we need now is courage. Courage to act, to innovate, and to demand more from the system. Because the longer we wait, the more people fall through the cracks.  

The current system cannot stretch to catch everyone. It was never built to. And looking  away because the problem is complex, or politically inconvenient, is no longer acceptable. 

The baby boomers are aging into the final chapter of their lives. We owe it to them, and to  every generation that follows, to stop deferring action and start delivering solutions that meet the scale of the crisis. 



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