Stephanie Murphy has early lead for Orange County Mayor, but many are undecided

A new survey says former U.S Rep. Stephanie Murphy has emerged as the leading candidate Orange County Mayor, though more than half of voters remain undecided.

“Bottom Line: Former Congresswoman Stephanie Murphy is the only candidate who has shown early signs of building a winning coalition and early polling confirms she continues to gain traction and surges to a clear first place as voters learn more about the race and her campaign,” Miami-based EDGE Communications said in a memo after polling 1,000 people in February.

“The roughly 54% of voters still undecided after information represents significant room for movement for all candidates as the race develops.”

To replace the term-limited Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings, Murphy is up against a crowded field, including Orange County Clerk of Courts Tiffany Moore Russell, tech entrepreneur Chris Messina and Orange County Commissioner Mayra Uribe.

“In the initial ballot test, Murphy leads the field with 12.5%, followed by Tiffany Moore-Russell at 8.1%, Christopher Messina at 6.1%, and Mayra Uribe trailing far behind at just 3.4%,” EDGE Communications’ poll found.

“After voters receive information about the candidates, Murphy surges to 24.5% — more than 9 points ahead of Moore-Russell (15.1%) and nearly four times Uribe’s 6.4%.”

Christian Ulvert, the Miami firm’s founder and CEO, said he is not involved in the Mayor’s race and commissioned the survey to better understand the dynamics underway in Orange.

“Moore-Russell runs in second with a path to compete, but it runs almost entirely through Black voters and Democrats. For her to win, she would need to consolidate that base and expand outward, particularly among women and younger voters,” EDGE Communications’ memo said. 

About 51% of those surveyed say they will be voting for a Democrat compared to just about 29% opting for a Republican. About 8% say they have no preference while another 13% are undecided.

“With term-limited Mayor Jerry Demings preparing to leave office, voters are closely divided on what kind of successor they want,” the memo said. “Asked whether they prefer a candidate who will carry forward Demings’ legacy or one who would bring a different approach, 52.5% say they want a candidate who will carry the Demings legacy, while 47.5% prefer a candidate who would chart a different course.”