Southwest Florida leaders skeptical if property tax cut makes statewide ballot, or if it can pass from there

Florida lawmakers have yet to approve language for a major property tax reduction to appear on the statewide ballot. But speakers on a Florida TaxWatch panel expressed some skepticism about what might pass.

That doesn’t mean they don’t want to see spending cuts in local government. As the panel went over some House-proposed options, some elected officials questioned how the public would digest them even if they passed in the Senate.

“I don’t think any of those are ultimately going to pass,” said Lee County Property Appraiser Matt Caldwell, himself a former Representative.

Panelists weren’t necessarily opposed to a cut in property millage rates across the board. But while many expect tax cuts to be an easy sell, former Rep. Bob Rommel said that’s not always the case.

“It’s truly amazing. In the time that I’ve been in Florida, every single time there’s a penny tax or half-tax, it’s passed. Not once has a tax decrease on the ballot passed in 24 years that I’ve been here. Not once,” the Naples Republican said.

“We all hear the news, or whatever source, it’s always about taxes. But if you say, oh my gosh, it’s a penny because we’re going to have beautiful roads or rainbows or whatever it is, it passes. But when seniors literally can’t afford to stay in their home, it fails. Listen. It’s beyond logic. It’s just what it is.”

Kurt Wenner, Florida TaxWatch’s Senior Vice President of Research, suggested part of the reason is that it would be a big, immediate hit to revenues and the resources available for government services. He has suggested a phasing out of taxes might be more palatable.

But he also suggested that many governments could simply find a way to make back revenue through other fees and assessments unless the Legislature coupled eliminating property taxes with restrictions on spending.

Brandi Gunder, a Florida TaxWatch Senior Vice President who moderated the panel, asked if governments would need to make back 100% of the revenue.

Caldwell said probably not, “but the devil’s in the details in terms of who gets to make the choices of which revenue gets covered.”

Wenner suggested that ultimately, many voters could expect all revenues to be made up with fresh funding mechanisms.

“You can leave it up to the local governments, and without any other changes, it’ll happen over time,” he said.

Caldwell noted that even though there’s some doubt that anything will pass this year, there may also be a political consequence for abandoning an effort to change Florida’s property tax system at this point as well.

“How do you talk about this for two years straight and don’t put something on?” he said. “That is almost as damaging. But you know what? Who does it damage? The Governor’s term-limited, so he’s not actually on the ballot. And if that dissatisfaction for the voters gets diffused to the point it doesn’t directly impact any legislator. Occam’s razor tells me we don’t actually get the initiative.”