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Sneaking unemployment rate means the U.S. economy is inching closer to triggering Sahm Rule

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While America’s labor market may not be collapsing, Moody’s Analytics has highlighted that it is inching steadily closer towards a key recession indicator, with analysts now placing the probability of an economic contraction at around 40%.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the unemployment rate for November edged up to 4.6%, continuing the creep higher that analysts have been nervously monitoring throughout the year. The BLS noted a meagre 64,000 roles were created last month, showing little net change from April this year.

While 4.6% is not a dire figure—around 4% is seen as a reasonable rate of unemployment in a relatively stable economy—it is markedly higher than last November, when it was 4.2%. But it’s not necessarily the rate of unemployment that is making economists nervous. Rather, it’s the broader trend of decline and what this demonstrates about the trajectory of the economy.

In its most recent podcast episode of ‘Inside Economics’, Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi and , senior director of economic research Dante DeAntonio observed that America is close to triggering the Sahm Rule.

The Sahm Rule, invented by former Fed economist Claudia Sahm, is a recession signal that is activated when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.5 percentage points or more, relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months. In November, it stood at 0.43.

“We didn’t quite trigger it this month but we’re sort of on the precipice,” DeAntonio said. “If it stays at 4.6% next month we’ll trigger the Sahm Rule again. It’ll be exactly at the threshold just like we were in the middle of 2024.”

While the Sahm Rule is fairly accurate, the U.S. economy did not in fact fall into recession last year—thanks in part to the Fed engineering a “soft landing” via interest rate cuts. So will the same rule apply now and into 2026?

Cris deRitis, deputy chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said he’d place a 40% likelihood on a recession occurring next year, explaining: “The trends are not our friends here.” His call is somewhat elevated from the consensus of Wall Street, which places the odds at 30 to 35%.

DeAntonio and Zandi agreed with their colleague, with the latter saying: “The thing that makes me nervous and adds to my level of angst … [is] one reason why job growth is weaker is less labor supply, because of the immigration policy. That gets you to the 50k to 75k breakeven monthly job number. That by itself, if nothing else was going on, is already pretty weak, and that goes to lack of bodies and lack of people to work.” The breakeven number is the monthly jobs growth figure needed to keep the unemployment rate steady.

Demand for workers is falling, and AI is a reason

If the unemployment level is relatively stable because of lack of supply, that means demand from employers is incredibly weak, Zandi said: “We could trace it back to the tariffs, we can trace it back to some of the other deglobalization efforts that the administration has engaged in, including immigration policy because immigrants are consumers … but the other factor is AI.”

So far the impact from AI has been only “modest” the Moody’s economist reasoned, perhaps impacting younger market entrants as opposed to the wider market. But what happens when the productivity gains from AI really become clear?

“That’s at least the betting in the stock markets, stock investors are buying AI stocks thinking that we’re going to see big adoption rates by businesses, that it’s gonna raise productivity growth, it’s gonna raise profitability … if they’re half right or even a quarter right then we’re in a world of outright job decline, all else being equal.”

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Exclusive: Cursor acquires code review startup Graphite as AI coding competition heats up

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Cursor is buying code review startup Graphite in a deal that brings together two popular tools in AI-powered software development.

The companies declined to disclose financial terms of the transaction, but said it involves a mixture of cash and equity. They said Graphite will to continue operating as an independent product, but with deeper integration into Cursor’s code editing platform. The deal is expected to close in the coming weeks.

Cursor CEO, Michael Truell, told Fortune the acquisition addresses what he sees as an emerging bottleneck in software development.

“The way engineering teams review code is increasingly becoming a bottleneck to them moving even faster as AI has been deployed more broadly within engineering teams,” he said. “Over the past 2.5 years, Cursor has made it much faster to write production code. However, for most engineering teams, reviewing code looks the same as it did 3 years ago. It’s becoming a larger portion of people’s time as the time to write code shrinks. Graphite has done lots of work to improve the speed and accuracy of code review.”

AI code editors like Cursor help programmers while they’re writing code—making suggestions, explaining the function of a particular piece of code, and helping teams move around large projects faster. Graphite, used by companies like Shopify, Snowflake, and Figma, helps teams review changes and decide when code is ready to ship, after its written.

“We focused on the writing side of things. Graphite has focused on the review side of things. We think the two together can make something even better,” Truell said.

Graphite CEO Merrill Lutsky said that the two companies “have an almost identical vision for what the future of software development looks like.”

“Cursor has defined the new way to write code, and we’re defining how you review and merge it. Putting those together lets you build an end-to-end platform,” he told Fortune.

In the immediate term, both products will remain separate, with Graphite maintaining its independent brand. Throughout 2026, Truell said the companies plan to make it easier for developers’ code to connect with the review process, including smarter, more context-aware code review that adapts to how teams actually write code.

Lutsky said concerns about AI-generated code quality have been a major focus for Graphite. “We’ve invested deeply in ensuring that code written with the help of AI is safe and high quality,” he said. “Together with Cursor, we’re going to double down on that and help teams build secure, efficient, high-quality products.”

An end-to-end AI coding platform

The acquisition comes just one month after Cursor, which is valued at $29.3 billion valuation, announced it had reached $1 billion in annualized revenue. The company has seen a rapid rise since it was founded by a team of four MIT graduates in 2022. The company’s AI coding tool, which first launched in 2023, has seen major deployments at companies like Salesforce, which according to Truell said had seen a 30% uplift in engineering productivity from using Cursor.

Graphite is not Cursor’s first acquisition. The company bought AI coding assistant Supermaven in November 2024 and scooped up talent from enterprise startup Koala in July.

Graphite, which Lutsky co-founded nearly five years ago with Tomas Reimers and Greg Foster, raised $52 million in a Series B round in March 2025. The company told TechCrunch revenue grew 20x in 2024 without disclosing absolute figures, and expanded to serving tens of thousands of engineers at more than 500 companies, including customers such as Shopify, Snowflake, Figma, and Perplexity.

Lutsky said the deal offers Graphite the opportunity to build a more unified development platform. “We’ve long dreamed of connecting the surfaces where we create, collaborate on, and validate code changes,” he said, adding that the deal dramatically accelerates that timeline.

The AI coding market is booming

The AI coding market has exploded over the past two years as enterprises rush to adopt AI tools in hopes of productivity gains. The U.S. market for AI code tools was valued at $1.51 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach nearly $9 billion by 2032.

Big Tech companies including Microsoft and Google are automating large parts of their coding. According to Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, as much as 30% of the code within the company’s repositories is now written by artificial intelligence while at least 25% of new Google code is generated by AI, according to CEO Sundar Pichai.

Companies are betting that AI coding tools can supercharge software engineers productivity, but early studies have been mixed. A July study by nonprofit research organization METR found that experienced developers using AI tools were actually 19% slower when using an AI coding assistant, even though they believed they were faster. Consulting firm Bain & Company also reported in September that real-world savings from AI coding have been “unremarkable.”

Nevertheless, the deal positions Cursor more aggressively in an increasingly competitive market, with OpenAI, Anthropic, and GitHub Copilot among those vying for dominance in the space. Most of these tools, however, are built on top of the same underlying “foundation” AI models rather than developing their own. Cursor, for example, uses Anthropic’s Claude and allows users to choose models from other providers to power code generation.

While Graphite is also backed by Anthropic, Lutsky downplayed concerns about competing directly with large model providers. “The larger base-model companies are trying to compete across many different verticals,” he said. “Cursor is solely focused on how engineers build with AI, and that focus really sets them apart.”

Truell also brushed off the threat from major AI labs. “Our approach here is to use a combination of the best technology that partners have to offer and then technology that we develop ourselves,” he said. The company has focused on cherry-picking the best available models, supplementing them with proprietary ones, and wrapping everything in what it argues is a superior user interface.

As for the next year, Truell said the company currently has no additional deals planned, with Cursor focused on building out product features rather than eyeing an IPO.

“Our goals for the company are very ambitious over the course of the next decade,” he said. “We think that this is the decade in which coding will be automated, and the way in which professional teams build and deliver software will change across the entire software development life cycle.”



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‘This year is just not a jewelry Christmas’: Meet a 64-year-old small businesswoman who’s seen her Main Street decline for the last decade

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She had worked 22 days straight in her job as a technician at an engine plant to save up, and now Daijah Bryant could finally do what she was putting off: Christmas shopping.

Bryant pushed her cart out of a Walmart in Rocky Mount, North Carolina, and loaded her sedan’s backseat with bags of gifts. While they would soon bring joy to her friends and family, it was difficult for the 26-year-old to feel good about the purchases.

“Having to pay bills, if you happen to pay rent and try to do Christmas all at the same time, it is very, very hard,” she said with exasperation.

Ahead of President Donald Trump’s Friday evening visit to Rocky Mount, some residents say they are feeling an economic squeeze that seems hard to escape. The uneasy feeling spans political affiliation in the town, which is split between two largely rural and somewhat impoverished counties, although some were more hopeful than others that there are signs of reprieve on the horizon.

This will be Trump’s second event this month aimed at championing his economic policies ahead of a consequential midterm election next year, both held in presidential battleground states. Similar to Trump’s earlier stop in Pennsylvania, Rocky Mount sits in a U.S. House district that has been historically competitive. But earlier this year, the Republican-controlled legislature redrew the boundaries for the eastern North Carolina district to favor their party as part of Trump’s push to have GOP-led states gerrymander their congressional districts to help his party retain its House majority for the last half of his term.

Rocky Mount may be in a politically advantageous location, but the hardships its residents report mirror the tightening financial strains many Americans say they are feeling, with high prices for groceries, housing and utilities among their top concerns. Polls show persistently high prices have put Americans in a grumpy mood about the state of the economy, which a large majority say is performing poorly.

Trump has insisted the economy is trending upward and the country will see some relief in the new year and beyond. In some cases, he has dismissed affordability concerns and encouraged Americans to decrease their consumption.

‘Without the businesses, it’s dead’

Crimson smokestacks tower over parts of downtown Rocky Mount, reminding the town’s roughly 54,000 residents of its roots as a once-booming tobacco market. Through the heart of downtown, graffiti-covered trains still lug along on the railroad tracks that made Rocky Mount a bustling locomotive hotspot in the last century.

Those days seem long gone for some residents who have watched the town change over decades. Rocky Mount has adapted by tapping into other industries such as manufacturing and biopharmaceuticals, but it’s also had to endure its fair share of challenges. Most recently, financial troubles in the city’s government have meant higher utility prices for residents.

The city has been investing to try to revitalize its downtown, but progress has been slow. Long stretches of empty storefronts that once contained restaurants, furniture shops and drug stores line the streets. Most stores were closed Thursday morning, and not much foot traffic roamed the area.

That’s left Lucy Slep, who co-owns The Miner’s Emporium jewelry store with her husband, waiting for Trump’s promised “Golden Age of America.”

The jewelry store has been in downtown Rocky Mount for nearly four decades, just about as long as the 64-year-old said she has lived in the area. But the deterioration of downtown Rocky Mount has spanned at least a decade, and Slep said she’s still hoping it will come back to life.

“Every downtown in every little town is beautiful,” she said. “But without the businesses, it’s dead.”

Slep’s store hasn’t escaped the challenges other Rocky Mount small businesses have endured. Instead of buying, more people have recently been selling their jewelry to the shop, Slep said.

Customers have been scarce. About a week out from Christmas, the store — with handmade molded walls and ceilings resembling cave walls — sat empty aside from the rows of glass cases containing jewelry. It’s been hard, Slep said, but she and her husband are trying to make it through.

“This year is just not a jewelry Christmas, for whatever reason,” she said.

Better times on the horizon — depending on whom you ask

Slep is already looking ahead to next year for better times. She is confident that Trump’s economic policies — including upcoming tax cuts — will make a marked difference in people’s cost of living. In her eyes, the financial strains people are feeling are residual effects from the Biden administration that eventually will fade.

Optimism about what’s to come under Trump’s economy might also depend on whether residents feel their economic conditions have changed drastically in the past year. Shiva Mrain, an engineer in Rocky Mount, said his family’s situation has not “become worse nor better.” He’s been encouraged by seeing lower gas prices.

Bryant, the engine technician, feels a bit more disillusioned.

She didn’t vote in the last election because she didn’t think either party could enact changes that would improve her life. Nearly a year into the Trump administration, Bryant is still waiting to see whether the president will deliver.

“I can’t really say … that change is coming,” she said. “I don’t think anything is going to change.”



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Why did Trump get 18 minutes of prime-time television for a totally partisan, largely inaccurate monologue?

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When Donald Trump delivered the first White House address of his second presidency Wednesday night, all major U.S. networks beamed his image and voice onto their airwaves, cable feeds and online platforms.

Americans ended up watching the Republican president stand in the Diplomatic Reception Room and deliver 18 minutes of aggressive, politically motivated arguments that misstated facts, blamed the nation’s ills on his predecessor, exaggerated the results of his nearly 11 months in office and amplified his characteristically gargantuan, immeasurable promises about what’s to come.

This was no commander in chief announcing a military action or discussing a critical national issue. It was a politician’s defiant insistence that he’s doing a better job than polls suggest most Americans believe. And the spectacle raises the question of whether network executives should grant airtime to the leader of the free world for a clearly political speech simply because he asks.

“It’s not that the Oval Office and the White House haven’t been used for political speeches before,” said former NBC executive Mark Lukasiewicz, who is dean of Hofstra University’s communications school after more than a decade leading NBC’s special broadcasts, including presidential addresses.

“But, as with a great deal of what Donald Trump does as president, this was outside the norm,” Lukasiewicz said, adding that news executives are reluctant to flout the historical standard that “when the president feels he needs to speak to the nation, you need to let him speak.”

The uneasy dynamics were further intensified because Trump spoke the same day that the Federal Communications Commission chairman, Brendan Carr, told members of Congress that his agency, which has regulatory authority over media companies, is not in fact an independent agency as has been understood through generations of Republican and Democratic administrations. That’s on top of Trump’s penchant for browbeating individual journalists who cover him and suing news organizations to the tune of multimillion-dollar settlements, notably from CBS and ABC.

Lukasiewicz, who left NBC soon after Trump’s 2016 election, said “it is hard to imagine that those factors aren’t on the minds of news executives and network executives making these decisions.”

Networks typically give presidents the benefit of the doubt

The White House did not immediately reply to questions Thursday about the process that led to Wednesday’s address. The networks also did not respond to Associated Press inquiries. Spokespeople at MS NOW and CNN, cable networks whose prime-time programming already is oriented to political coverage, declined comment.

Presidential addresses often begin with the White House press secretary or communications director contacting networks’ Washington bureau chiefs, asking for a specific amount of time and offering a general description of the topic. Lukasiewicz recalled that when President Barack Obama told the nation that 9/11 mastermind Osama bin Laden had been killed on his orders, his aides had told networks the president wanted to discuss a major national security matter.

Such conversations are relayed up to network executives, who must weigh whether to preempt or delay programming, decisions that can affect advertising revenue. Networks typically grant the time, reasoning that they’re relatively rare and historically have involved substantial matters.

Trump, who relishes talking directly to voters via social media and regularly talks to reporters on Air Force One and elsewhere, has made fewer requests for network time than many of his predecessors; he had not asked at all since returning to the White House in January.

Still, it’s not a guaranteed yes, with Obama and President Joe Biden being denied requests in recent decades.

The president disclosed his plans Tuesday on Truth Social, his social media platform. That announcement came hours after his declaration, also on Truth Social, that the U.S. would accelerate its actions against Venezuela and boats the Trump administration insists are running drugs that reach U.S. soil.

Taken together, those posts triggered chatter in Washington and beyond about official wartime actions. Some newsrooms predictably linked his planned speech to his Venezuela commentary. Presidents, after all, regularly make major military announcements in addresses from the White House: John F. Kennedy on the Cuban Missile Crisis, Lyndon Johnson on Vietnam, Jimmy Carter on the Iran hostages, Ronald Reagan on the Cold War and U.S. maneuvers in Latin America.

Presidents also have made plenty of U.S.-centered speeches, many fairly described as a politician pitching his preferred domestic policies with an unchecked megaphone.

Network leaders notably rejected Obama in 2014 when he wanted to talk about immigration policy while Congress was at an impasse over the matter. Lukasiewicz recalled being part of the executive team that rejected Obama’s request to speak during his first term on the Affordable Care Act becoming law.

In 2022, Biden spoke at length on his concerns about American democracy — but several networks did not carry his remarks from Philadelphia. By itself, the topic could be framed as a national concern above partisanship. Biden’s effort, though, was complicated by the fact that he was talking about Trump and Trump’s supporters who ransacked the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, at a time when they were being investigated and prosecuted.

Trump’s purpose still wasn’t obvious hours ahead of his speech

It’s not clear when — or if — the White House shared the substance of Trump’s remarks with network leaders. People familiar with how the process has worked in previous administrations said it would be defensible, since it was Trump’s first address this term, for networks to grant his request even without clarity about the topic.

By Wednesday afternoon and early evening, White House aides and some executive branch agencies had telegraphed to some journalists that the speech would be more oriented to the state of the nation nearly a year into Trump’s presidency — a framing that would still put the speech within historical norms. Trump, however, went beyond those traditional boundaries.

The United States was “laughed at” before he resumed the presidency in January, Trump insisted. He blamed Biden and Democrats for “the worst (inflation) in the history of our country,” but said “everything … is falling rapidly.” Biden-era inflation was not the worst in history, inflation rates began falling before he left office and, though they are now at or much closer to historically routine levels, that still means prices are rising.

The White House also offered charts that only Fox opted to show.

Trump accused immigrants in Minnesota of stealing “billions and billions” of dollars and used the language of war to call Biden-era immigration levels an “invasion.” He claimed he’d secured $18 trillion in foreign business investments to the U.S. when his own White House puts the number closer to half that. He said he scored a landslide in 2024 — despite his Electoral College vote share ranking in the bottom third through 230 years of victorious presidents.

Asked whether the display could give TV executives pause in the future, Lukasiewicz pointed back to business realities.

“I don’t know,” he said. “Those overlaying factors of the incredible pressure that this president can bring, and has shown himself completely willing to bring on these organizations and their corporate parents when he’s unhappy — that’s still part of part of the equation.”



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