Shock poll shows Democrat Brice Barnes with path to succeed Neal Dunn in CD 2

A new poll shows Democrat Brice Barnes in a position to flip retiring Republican U.S. Rep. Neal Dunn’s seat blue.

MDW Communications released a poll that shows if Barnes were in a head-to-head contest with Republican Evan Power, she starts the race with nearly 30% support to his just under 29%.

A polling memo is careful to identify that as a statistical tie, within the survey’s unpublished margin of error.

MDW also tested messaging for an informed poll and found Barnes’ performance against Power improves whether voters hear positive information about both candidates or negative background.

After getting friendly bios about Barnes, a longtime advocate for families with disabilities, and Power, the sitting Chair of the Republican Party of Florida, the Democrat’s edge grows. Support for Barnes builds to almost 43% while backing for Power goes up, but to shy of 35%.

When negative info on both candidates is presented, both candidates take some hit, but Barnes’ advantage remains. She is just under 41%, while Power stays a bit above 33%. Ultimately, the Democrat enjoys more than a 7-percentage-point lead on Power, with more than 26% of the vote still undecided.

Those results come despite a polling sample of 758 respondents that was 47% Republican, 37% Democrat and 16% with no party affiliation.

“Critically, this sample skews heavily Republican — 47% of likely voters are registered Republicans, compared to 37% Democrats and just 16% NPA,” the memo reads.

“This is not a favorable partisan environment for a Democrat. Barnes’s competitive standing in this electorate requires, and reflects, a failure on Power’s part to consolidate Republicans, a significant level of GOP defection, and double‑digit NPA support for Barnes.”

In the initial polling, around 63% of Democrats were already inclined to support Barnes, the pollster found. But less than 53% of Republicans said the same about Power despite his role in the party.

While Power’s Republican support grows to more than 61% after voters learn the ups and downs of his background, Barnes polls at 80% support among Democrats. As for voters without strong affiliation, Barned starts with a 23%-19% edge that grows to a nearly 40%-22% advantage when voters are given more information.

Of note, neither Barnes nor Power has the nomination in hand. Three other Democrats — Yen Bailey, Amanda Green and Nic Zateslo — were all in the race even before Dunn in January announced his retirement.

Power faces several other foes including former U.S. Senate candidate Keith Gross, disabled veteran Luke Murphy, Gulf County Schools Superintendent Jim Norton, former U.S. Senate staff counsel Austin Rogers and retired law enforcement officer Audie Rowell.