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Scott Bessent questions whether Powell should cut rates by 0.50bps in September

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Investors are pricing in more than a 96% chance of the Fed cutting the base rate in September, following a cooler-than-expected inflation report for July, released yesterday.

But this isn’t the only pressure Jerome Powell and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are under: Analysts and politicians are also getting their orders in for how much of a cut they want to see.

Despite the fact that the FOMC has reiterated time and again that their decision is based on economic data and anecdotal evidence only, that hasn’t stopped high-profile individuals having their say.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, for example, told Fox News yesterday that the “fantastic” CPI numbers have lead him to question “should we get a 50 basis-point rate cut in September.”

His reasoning is that the Fed should have cut in June and July, had they known the fuller picture about the labor market. Earlier this month the Bureau of Labor Statistics shocked markets when it revealed payrolls grew by just 73,000 last month, well below forecasts for about 100,000. Meanwhile, May’s tally was cut down from 144,000 to 19,000, and June’s total was slashed from 147,000 to just 14,000, meaning the average gain over the past three months is now only 35,000.

The motivation for a larger cut would be to “make up” for the missed opportunities earlier this summer, Bessent added.

It’s unsurprising that Bessent would lead the charge for a larger reduction. He is backing the stance of the Oval Office that Powell and the Fed have been too slow to normalize monetary policy, and are hampering economic activity as a result. Yesterday President Trump reiterated this call, writing on Truth Social: “It has been proven, that even at this late stage, tariffs have not caused Inflation, or any other problems for America, other than massive amounts of CASH pouring into our Treasury’s coffers.”

While analysts aren’t sold on the idea of a larger reduction to the base rate, they’re not ruling it out either. Speaking ahead of the release of the CPI data yesterday, State Street Global’s Tim Graf told Reuters that while markets are unlikely to fully bake in a reduction of two clicks, investors may begin to hedge toward the possibility as we get closer to the September meeting. They won’t price “that it will be delivered,” he said, “but that the probability is above say 0%.”

The tone of the FOMC is also likely to turn more dovish, after two dissenters already split from the pack in July over the committee’s decision to keep the base rate at 4.25% to 4.5%. And their stance is likely to be further boosted by the appointment at the next meeting by Trump-nominee Stephen Miran—widely seen by the market as a dove who will push for rates to lower.

But with the FOMC missing a meeting this month—instead heading for the Jackson Hole Symposium—the committee will have more time, and crucial data, to help inform their decision.

Investors should take notice too, wrote Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid in a note to clients this morning, instead of treating a September cut as a foregone conclusion. “The main takeaway was for the Federal Reserve, as investors dialled up the likelihood of a 25bps rate cut in September,” Reid wrote. “It was the same story for the coming months as well, with 105bps of cuts priced in by the June 2026 meeting at the close, up +4.4bps on the previous day.:

He added: “In their CPI recap, Deutsche Bank’s U.S. economists think that the release isn’t likely to move Fed officials from their priors in either direction, and that the upcoming labour market data will be more important with respect to near-term cuts.”

“With overall inflation likely under control amid a slowing economy, our base case remains that the Fed will resume rate cuts at the September meeting and continue cutting for a total of 100bps,” added Mark Haefele, CIO at UBS Global Wealth Management in a note to clients this morning. “We like medium-duration quality bonds for investors seeking portfolio income amid falling cash rates.”

Core inflation snag

Markets are perhaps willingly overlooking the small niggle of core inflation notching up to 3.1% in yesterday’s release. This reading (as opposed to headline inflation of 2.7%) may arguably hold more weight with the Fed as it doesn’t include volatile assets like food prices, and sits well ahead of the 2% target.

For this very reason, a portion of analysts are convinced that contrary to the majority opinion, the July data has lowered the likelihood of a cut.

“It seems fair to say that the Fed could be considering a move in September, but I don’t think a cut at that meeting is as much of a given as market pricing is implying,” wrote JPMorgan’s head of investment strategy, Elyse Ausenbaugh, following the report’s release. “We will get plenty of data between now and then that could give the Fed pause one more time before taking action in the fourth quarter.”

“Do not expect a September rate cut” was the message from Larry Tentarelli, chief technical strategist for Blue Chip Daily Trend Report. Tentarelli wrote: “The July payrolls report missed forecasts and the unemployment rate ticked higher—signs of a potentially weakening labor market. Meanwhile, 12-month CPI came in above the prior month for June and now for July.  

“While one data point does not make a trend, two consecutive months of higher 12-month inflation will make it difficult for the Fed to justify a rate cut at their September 17 meeting. We remain bullish on the S&P 500 index into year end, but we do not expect a September rate cut unless the jobs market drops off drastically over the next 45 days.”

Jobs data released in September will hold more sway over the Fed’s decision, added Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank, who said the July CPI report made it less likely for the Fed to cut in September because inflation came from “sticky service prices rather than tariff-affected goods.”



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Procurement execs often don’t understand the value of good design, experts say

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Behind every intricately designed hotel or restaurant is a symbiotic collaboration between designer and maker.

But in reality, firms want to build more with less—and even though visions are created by designers, they don’t always get to see them to fruition. Instead, intermediaries may be placed in charge of procurements and overseeing the financial costs of executing designs.

“The process is not often as linear as we [designers] would like it to be, and at times we even get slightly cut out, and something comes out on the other side that wasn’t really what we were expecting,” said Tina Norden, a partner and principal at design firm Conran and Partners, at the Fortune Brainstorm Design forum in Macau on Dec. 2.

“To have a better quality product, communication is very much needed,” added Daisuke Hironaka, the CEO of Stellar Works, a furniture company based in Shanghai. 

Yet those tasked with procurement are often “money people” who may not value good design—instead forsaking it to cut costs. More education on the business value of quality design is needed, Norden argued.

When one builds something, she said, there are both capital investment and a lifecycle cost. “If you’re spending a bit more money on good quality furniture, flooring, whatever it might be, arguably, it should last a lot longer, and so it’s much better value.”

Investing in well-designed products is also better for the environment, Norden added, as they don’t have to be replaced as quickly.

Attempts to cut costs may also backfire in the long run, said Hironaka, as business owners may have to foot higher maintenance bills if products are of poor design and make.

AI in interior and furniture design

Though designers have largely been slow adopters of AI, some luminaries like Daisuke are attempting to integrate it into their team’s workflow.

AI can help accelerate the process of designing bespoke furniture, Daisuke explained, especially for large-scale projects like hotels. 

A team may take a month to 45 days to create drawings for 200 pieces of custom-made furniture, the designer said, but AI can speed up this process. “We designed a lot in the past, and if AI can use these archives, study [them] and help to do the engineering, that makes it more helpful for designers.” 

Yet designers can rest easy as AI won’t ever be able to replace the human touch they bring, Norden said. 

“There is something about the human touch, and about understanding how we like to use our spaces, how we enjoy space, how we perceive spaces, that will always be there—but AI should be something that can assist us [in] getting to that point quicker.”

She added that creatives can instead view AI as a tool for tasks that are time-consuming but “don’t need ultimate creativity,” like researching and three-dimensionalizing designs.

“As designers, we like to procrastinate and think about things for a very long time to get them just right, [but] we can get some help in doing things faster.”



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Binance has been proudly nomadic for years. A new announcement suggests it’s chosen an HQ

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For years, Binance has dodged questions about where it plans to establish a corporate headquarters. On Monday, the world’s largest crypto exchange made an announcement that indicates it has chosen a location: Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates.

In its announcement, Binance reported that it has secured three global financial licenses within Abu Dhabi Global Market, a special economic zone inside the Emirati city. The licenses regulate three different prongs of the exchange’s business: its exchange, clearinghouse, and broker dealer services. The three regulated entities are named Nest Exchange Limited, Nest Clearing and Custody Limited, and Nest Trading Limited, respectively.

Richard Teng, the co-CEO of Binance, declined to say whether Abu Dhabi is now Binance’s global headquarters. “But for all intents and purposes, if you look at the regulatory sphere, I think the global regulators are more concerned of where we are regulated on a global basis,” he said, adding that Abu Dhabi Global Market is where his crypto exchange’s “global platform” will be governed.

A company spokesperson declined to add more to Teng’s comments, but did not deny Fortune’s assertion that Binance appears to have chosen Abu Dhabai as its headquarters.

Corporate governance

The Abu Dhabi announcement suggests that Binance, which has for years taken pride in branding itself as a company with no fixed location, is bowing to the practical considerations that go with being a major financial firm—and the corporate governance obligations that entails.

When Changpeng Zhao, the cofounder and former CEO of Binance, launched the company in 2017, he initially established the exchange in Hong Kong. But, weeks after he registered Binance in the city, China banned cryptocurrency trading, and Zhao moved his nascent trading platform. Binance has since been itinerant. “Wherever I sit is going to be the Binance office,” Zhao said in 2020.

The location of a company’s headquarters impacts its tax obligations and what regulations it needs to follow. In 2023, after Binance reached a landmark $4.3 billion settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice, Zhao stepped down as CEO and pleaded guilty to failing to implement an effective anti-money laundering program.

Teng took over and promised to implement the corporate structures—like a board of directors—that are the norm for companies of Binance’s size. Teng, who now shares the CEO role with the newly appointed Yi He, oversaw the appointment of Binance’s first board in April 2024. And he’s repeatedly telegraphed that his crypto exchange is focused on regulatory compliance.

Binance already has a strong footprint in the Emirates. It has a crypto license in Dubai, received a $2 billion investment from an Emirati venture fund in March, and, that same month, said it employed 1,000 employees in the country. 



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Leaders in Congress outperform rank-and-file lawmakers on stock trades by up to 47% a year

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Stocks held by members of Congress have been beating the S&P 500 lately, but there’s a subset of lawmakers who crush their peers: leadership.

According to a recent working paper for the National Bureau of Economic Research, congressional leaders outperform back benchers by up to 47% a year.

Shang-Jin Wei from Columbia University and Columbia Business School along with Yifan Zhou from Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University looked at lawmakers who ascended to leadership posts, such as Speaker of the House as well as House and Senate floor leaders, whips, and conference/caucus chairs.

Between 1995 and 2021, there were 20 such leaders who made stock trades before and after rising to their posts. Wei and Zhou observed that lawmakers underperformed benchmarks before becoming leaders, then everything suddenly changed.

“Importantly, whilst we observe a huge improvement in leaders’ trading performance as they ascend to leadership roles, the matched ‘regular’ members’ stock trading performance does not improve much,” they wrote.

Leadership’s stock market edge stems in part from their ability to set the regulatory or legislation agenda, such as deciding if and when a particular bill will be put to a vote. Setting the agenda also gives leaders advanced knowledge of when certain actions will take place.

In fact, Wei and Zhou found that leaders demonstrate much better returns on stock trades that are made when their party controls their chamber.

In addition, being a leader also increases access to non-public information. The researchers said that while companies are reluctant to share such insider knowledge, they may prioritize revealing it to leaders over rank-and-file lawmakers.

Leaders earn higher returns on companies that contribute to their campaigns or are headquartered in their states, which Wei and Zhou said could be attributable to “privileged access to firm-specific information.”

The upper echelon also influences how other members of Congress vote, and the paper found that a leader’s party is much more likely to vote for bills that help firms whose stocks the leader held, or vote against bills that harmed them. And stocks owned by leadership tend to see increases in federal contract awards, especially sole-source contracts, over the following one to two years.

“These results suggest that congressional leaders may not only trade on privileged knowledge, but also shape policy outcomes to enrich themselves,” Wei and Zhou wrote.

Stock trades by congressional leaders are even predictive, forecasting higher occurrences of positive or negative corporate news over the following year, they added. In particular, stock sales predict the number of hearings and regulatory actions over the coming year, though purchases don’t.

Investors have long suspected that Washington has a special advantage on Wall Street. That’s given rise to more ETFs with political themes, including funds that track portfolios belonging to Democrats and Republicans in Congress.

And Paul Pelosi, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband, even has a cult following among some investors who mimic his stock moves.

Congress has tried to crack down on members’ stock holdings. The STOCK Act of 2012 requires more timely disclosures, but some lawmakers want to ban trading completely.

A bipartisan group of House members is pushing legislation that would prohibit members of Congress, their spouses, dependent children, and trustees from trading individual stocks, commodities, or futures.

And this past week, a discharge petition was put forth that would force a vote in the House if it gets enough signatures.

“If leadership wants to put forward a bill that would actually do that and end the corruption, we’re all for it,” said Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, R-Fla., on social media on Tuesday. “But we’re tired of the partisan games. This is the most bipartisan bipartisan thing in U.S. history, and it’s time that the House of Representatives listens to the American people.”



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