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Scott Bessent questions whether Powell should cut rates by 0.50bps in September

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Investors are pricing in more than a 96% chance of the Fed cutting the base rate in September, following a cooler-than-expected inflation report for July, released yesterday.

But this isn’t the only pressure Jerome Powell and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are under: Analysts and politicians are also getting their orders in for how much of a cut they want to see.

Despite the fact that the FOMC has reiterated time and again that their decision is based on economic data and anecdotal evidence only, that hasn’t stopped high-profile individuals having their say.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, for example, told Fox News yesterday that the “fantastic” CPI numbers have lead him to question “should we get a 50 basis-point rate cut in September.”

His reasoning is that the Fed should have cut in June and July, had they known the fuller picture about the labor market. Earlier this month the Bureau of Labor Statistics shocked markets when it revealed payrolls grew by just 73,000 last month, well below forecasts for about 100,000. Meanwhile, May’s tally was cut down from 144,000 to 19,000, and June’s total was slashed from 147,000 to just 14,000, meaning the average gain over the past three months is now only 35,000.

The motivation for a larger cut would be to “make up” for the missed opportunities earlier this summer, Bessent added.

It’s unsurprising that Bessent would lead the charge for a larger reduction. He is backing the stance of the Oval Office that Powell and the Fed have been too slow to normalize monetary policy, and are hampering economic activity as a result. Yesterday President Trump reiterated this call, writing on Truth Social: “It has been proven, that even at this late stage, tariffs have not caused Inflation, or any other problems for America, other than massive amounts of CASH pouring into our Treasury’s coffers.”

While analysts aren’t sold on the idea of a larger reduction to the base rate, they’re not ruling it out either. Speaking ahead of the release of the CPI data yesterday, State Street Global’s Tim Graf told Reuters that while markets are unlikely to fully bake in a reduction of two clicks, investors may begin to hedge toward the possibility as we get closer to the September meeting. They won’t price “that it will be delivered,” he said, “but that the probability is above say 0%.”

The tone of the FOMC is also likely to turn more dovish, after two dissenters already split from the pack in July over the committee’s decision to keep the base rate at 4.25% to 4.5%. And their stance is likely to be further boosted by the appointment at the next meeting by Trump-nominee Stephen Miran—widely seen by the market as a dove who will push for rates to lower.

But with the FOMC missing a meeting this month—instead heading for the Jackson Hole Symposium—the committee will have more time, and crucial data, to help inform their decision.

Investors should take notice too, wrote Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid in a note to clients this morning, instead of treating a September cut as a foregone conclusion. “The main takeaway was for the Federal Reserve, as investors dialled up the likelihood of a 25bps rate cut in September,” Reid wrote. “It was the same story for the coming months as well, with 105bps of cuts priced in by the June 2026 meeting at the close, up +4.4bps on the previous day.:

He added: “In their CPI recap, Deutsche Bank’s U.S. economists think that the release isn’t likely to move Fed officials from their priors in either direction, and that the upcoming labour market data will be more important with respect to near-term cuts.”

“With overall inflation likely under control amid a slowing economy, our base case remains that the Fed will resume rate cuts at the September meeting and continue cutting for a total of 100bps,” added Mark Haefele, CIO at UBS Global Wealth Management in a note to clients this morning. “We like medium-duration quality bonds for investors seeking portfolio income amid falling cash rates.”

Core inflation snag

Markets are perhaps willingly overlooking the small niggle of core inflation notching up to 3.1% in yesterday’s release. This reading (as opposed to headline inflation of 2.7%) may arguably hold more weight with the Fed as it doesn’t include volatile assets like food prices, and sits well ahead of the 2% target.

For this very reason, a portion of analysts are convinced that contrary to the majority opinion, the July data has lowered the likelihood of a cut.

“It seems fair to say that the Fed could be considering a move in September, but I don’t think a cut at that meeting is as much of a given as market pricing is implying,” wrote JPMorgan’s head of investment strategy, Elyse Ausenbaugh, following the report’s release. “We will get plenty of data between now and then that could give the Fed pause one more time before taking action in the fourth quarter.”

“Do not expect a September rate cut” was the message from Larry Tentarelli, chief technical strategist for Blue Chip Daily Trend Report. Tentarelli wrote: “The July payrolls report missed forecasts and the unemployment rate ticked higher—signs of a potentially weakening labor market. Meanwhile, 12-month CPI came in above the prior month for June and now for July.  

“While one data point does not make a trend, two consecutive months of higher 12-month inflation will make it difficult for the Fed to justify a rate cut at their September 17 meeting. We remain bullish on the S&P 500 index into year end, but we do not expect a September rate cut unless the jobs market drops off drastically over the next 45 days.”

Jobs data released in September will hold more sway over the Fed’s decision, added Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank, who said the July CPI report made it less likely for the Fed to cut in September because inflation came from “sticky service prices rather than tariff-affected goods.”



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Millionaire YouTuber Hank Green tells Gen Z to rethink their Tesla bets—and shares the portfolio changes he’s making to avoid AI-bubble fallout

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For years, YouTube star Hank Green has stuck to the same straightforward investing wisdom touted by legends like Warren Buffett: Put your money in an S&P 500 index fund and leave it alone.

It’s advice that has paid off handsomely for millions of investors: this year alone, the index is up roughly some 16%, and averaged more than 20% in gains over the last three years and roughly 14.6% over the past two decades. In most cases, it’s easily beaten investors who try to pick individual stocks like Tesla or Meta.

But as Wall Street frets over a possible AI-driven bubble—with voices from  “Big Short” investor Michael Burry to economist Mohamed El-Erian sounding alarms—Green isn’t waiting around to see what happens. He’s already rethinking how much of his own wealth is tied to Big Tech.

A major reason: The S&P 500 is more concentrated than ever. The top 10 companies—including Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta—make up nearly 40% of the entire index. And nearly all of them are pouring billions into AI.

“I feel like my money is more exposed than I would like it to be,” Green said in a video that’s racked up over 1.6 million views. “I feel like by virtue of having a lot of my money in the S&P 500, I am now kind of betting on a big AI future. And that’s not a future that I definitely think is going to happen.”

So Green is hedging. He’s taking 25% of the money he previously invested in S&P 500 index funds—a meaningful chunk for a self-made millionaire—and moving it into a more diversified set of assets, including:

  • S&P 500 value index funds, which tilt toward companies with lower valuations and less AI-driven hype.
  • Mid-cap stocks, which he believes could benefit if smaller firms catch more of AI’s productivity gains.
  • International index funds, offering exposure outside the U.S. tech-heavy market.

Green’s thesis is simple: even if AI transforms the economy, the biggest winners may ultimately not be the mega-cap companies building the models.

“I think that these giant companies providing the AI models will actually be competing with each other for those customers in part by competing on price,” Green said. “And that might mean that the value delivered to small companies will be bigger than value delivered to the big AI companies. Who knows though? I just think that’s a thing that could happen.”

And if his concerns are overblown? He’s fine with that, too.

“If I’m wrong, 75% of my money is still in the safe place that everybody says your money should be, which is the S&P 500.”

YouTuber’s message to his Gen Z and Gen Alpha viewers: The stock market isn’t a ‘Ponzi scheme’

Gen Z continues to trail other generations in financial know-how—from saving and investing to understanding risk, according to TIAA. Moreover, one in four admit they are not confident in their financial knowledge and skill—a stark admission considering that 1 in 7 Gen Z credit card users have maxed out their credit cards and many young people hold thousands in student loan debt.

As a self-described “middle-aged, 45-year-old successful person,” Green said he’s trying to model what thoughtful, long-term decision-making actually looks like. And part of that effort includes dispelling one big misconception shared among some of his audience:

“I get these comments from people who are like, I can’t believe that you’re participating in this Ponzi scheme,” Green told Fortune. “I do want to alienate those people, because I don’t believe that the stock market is a Ponzi scheme. I do think that it’s overvalued right now, but I think that it’s tied to real value that’s really created in the world.”

His broader point: Investing isn’t about vibes or just dumping money into the hot stock of the week; rather, it’s something to seriously research.

“A lot of people think that investing is like getting a Robinhood account and buying Tesla,” Green added. “And I’m like, ‘Nope, you’ve got to get a Fidelity account and buy a low cost index fund everybody and or just keep it in your 401K and let the people who manage it manage it’—which is what a lot of people do, which is also fine.”

His younger viewers are paying attention. One popular comment summed it up: “As a young person entering the point in my life where I’m starting to think about investing, I really appreciate you talking through your logic and giving a ton of disclaimers rather than telling me I should buy buy buy exactly what you buy buy buy.” The comment has already racked up more than 4,700 likes.

Financial advisors agree: Portfolio diversification is king

While Green doesn’t come from a financial background, experts from the world of investing said they agree largely with his rationale: Having a diversified portfolio is the way to go—especially if you have worries about an AI bubble.

“Unlike many dot-com companies, today’s tech giants generally have substantial revenue, cash reserves, and established business models beyond just AI,” certified financial planner Bo Hanson, host of The Money Guy Show, said in a video analyzing Green’s take.

“Still, the concentration risk remains a valid concern for investors that are seeking diversification. However, this is precisely why we advise against putting all investments solely in the S&P 500, especially if you have a shorter time horizon.”

Hanson added wise investors spread their money across various asset classes, including small-caps, international, and bonds, in order to reduce portfolio volatility and provide

more consistent returns across various market environments.

It’s sentiment echoed by Doug Ornstein, director at TIAA Wealth Management, who said it’s important to realize that not every investment needs to chase growth.

“Particularly as you get older, having guaranteed income streams becomes crucial. Products like annuities can provide reliable payments regardless of market swings, creating a foundation of financial security,” Ornstein told Fortune. “Think of it as building a floor beneath your portfolio—one that market volatility can’t touch.”



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Warren Buffett: Business titan and cover star

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Warren Buffett’s face—always smiling, whether he’s slurping  a milkshake, brandishing a lasso, or palling around with fellow multibillionaire Bill Gates—has graced the cover of Fortune more than a dozen times. And it’s no wonder: Buffett has been a towering figure in both business and 

investing for much of his—and Fortune’s—95 years on earth. (The magazine first hit newsstands in February 1930; Buffett was born that August.) As Geoff Colvin writes in this issue, Buffett’s investing genius manifested early, and he bought his first stock at age 11. By Colvin’s calculations, over the 60 years since Buffett took control of his company, Berkshire Hathaway, its returns have outpaced the S&P 500 by more than 100 to one.  

Buffett has always had a special relationship with Fortune, particularly with legendary writer and editor Carol Loomis, who profiled him many times, and to whom he broke the news of his paradigm-shifting moves in philanthropy in 2006 and 2010. The end of an era is upon us, as Buffett on Dec. 31 will step down from his role as Berkshire’s CEO. We’re grateful to have been along for the ride. 

Warren Buffett on the cover of Fortune in 2009 and 2010.

Cover photographs by David Yellen (2009), and Art Streiber (2010)

Warren Buffett on the cover of Fortune in 2003 and 2006.

Cover photographs by Michael O’Neill (2003), and Ben Baker (2006)

Warren Buffett on the cover of Fortune in 2001 and 2002.

Cover photographs by Michael O’Neill

Warren Buffett on the cover of Fortune in 1986 and 1998.

Cover photographs by Alex Kayser (1986) and Michael O’Neill (1998)



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Kimberly-Clark exec says old bosses would compare her to their daughters when she got promoted

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Women have their own unique set of challenges in the workforce; the “motherhood penalty” can set them back $500,000, their C-suite representation is waning, and the gender pay gap has widened again. One senior executive from $36 billion manufacturing giant Kimberly-Clark knows the tribulations all too well—after all, she’s one of few women in the Fortune 500 who holds the coveted role. 

Tamera Fenske is the chief supply chain officer (CSCO) for Kimberly-Clark, who oversees a massive global team of 22,665 employees—around 58% of the global CPG manufacturer’s workforce. She’s in charge of optimizing the company’s entire supply chain, from sourcing raw materials for Kimberly-Clark products including Kleenex and Huggies, to delivering the final product into customers’ shopping carts. 

It’s a job that’s essential to most top businesses operating at such a massive scale; around 422 of the Fortune 500 have chief supply chain officers, according to a 2025 Spencer Stuart analysis. However, most of these slots are awarded to white men; only about 18% of executives in this position are women, and 12% come from underrepresented racial and ethnic backgrounds. It’s one of the C-suite roles with the least female representation, right next to chief financial officers, chief operating officers, and CEOs. 

In fact, Fenske is one of just 76 Fortune 500 female executives who have “chief supply chain officer” on their resumes. However, the executive tells Fortune it’s an unfortunate fact she “doesn’t think about” too often—if anything, it motivates her further.

“Anytime someone tells me I can’t do something, it makes me want to work that much harder to prove them wrong,” Fenske says. 

The first time Fenske noticed she was one of few women in the room

Fenske has spent her entire life navigating subjects dominated by men—something she didn’t even consider until college. 

Her father, aunts, uncles, and grandfather all worked for Dow Chemical, so she grew up in a STEM-heavy household. Naturally, she leaned into math and science as well, eventually pursuing a bachelor’s in environmental chemical engineering at Michigan Technological University. It was there that her eyes first opened to the reality that she was one of few women in the room. 

“It definitely was going to Michigan Tech, where I first realized the disparity,” Fenske said, adding that there was around an eight-to-one male-to-female ratio. “As you continue through the higher levels and the grades, it becomes even more tighter, especially as you get into your specialized engineering.” 

Once joining the world of work, it wasn’t only Fenske who noticed the lack of women in senior roles—some bosses would even point it out. 

The Fortune 500 boss is paying it forward—for both men and women

After Fenske graduated from Michigan Tech, she got her start at $91 billion manufacturer 3M: a multinational conglomerate producing everything from pads of Post-It notes to rolls of Scotch tape. Fenske was first hired as an environmental engineer in 2000. Promotion after promotion came, but all people could seem to focus on was her gender.

“It would come to light when I moved relatively quickly through the ranks. Some of my bosses would say, ‘You’re the age of my daughter,’ and different things like that. ‘You’re the first woman that’s had this role at this plant or in this division,’” Fenske recalls. Over the course of 2 decades, she rose through the company’s ranks to the SVP of 3M’s U.S. and Canada manufacturing and supply chain. 

And anytime she was asked about her gender? She’d flip the questions back at them while standing her ground. “I would always try to spin it a little bit and ask them questions like, ‘Okay, so what is your daughter doing?’…I always try to seek to understand where they are coming from, but then also reinforce what brought me to where I am.”

Now, three years into her current stint as Kimberly-Clark’s CSCO, the 47-year-old is paying it back—but not just to the women following in her footsteps.

“I never saw myself as necessarily a big, ground-breaker pioneer, even though the statistics would tell you I was,” Fenske says. “I tried to give back to women and men, to be honest. Because I think men [are] one of the strongest advocates for women as well. So I think we have to teach both how to have that equal lens and diverse perspective.”



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