breeders cup Justify (1), with jockey Mike Smith up, crosses the finish line to win the 150th running of the Belmont Stakes horse race and the Triple Crown, Saturday, June 9, 2018, in Elmont, N.Y. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)
Saratoga Saturday: The Fourstardave, Saratoga Derby, and The Whitney
Saratoga is really heating up now: this weekend on Saturday we have The Fourstardave, The Saratoga Derby, and of course the big one, The Whitney. Let ‘em Run will break down the late P5 on our Podcast on Saturday at 12:30 on Capital Sports Network. The late P5 covers races 10 through 14, and is sure to be loaded with options, which we will break down how we see the races now.
Late P5 at Saratoga Races 10 – 14
Race 10: 5:14 EST The Fourstardave Gr1 1 Mile Turf 750K
Great lineup in this edition of The Fourstardave. Some intrigue remains at writing as trainer Mark Casse is deciding between which of his two entries will run.
Front-Runners and Speed Setup
Top Selection: If he keeps #2 Mi Bago 12-1 in the race, he will be our top pick. Natural speed will have this runner in the lead as soon as the gates open. (His other entry is #4 Classic Q 8-1 a filly).
Closing Contenders: If a speed duel should break out, it could set up for #6 Capitol Hill 10-1, with the team of jockey Junior Alvarado and trainer William Mott together with this closer.
Defensive Hold: No doubt #5 Deterministic 2-1 will be used defensively on many tickets as the defending champ here.
Race 11: 5:52 EST The Saratoga Derby Gr 1 1 3/16 Mile Turf 750K
Time to take a stand here, and there are many checkmarks next to the #10 West End Kid 7-2 for our favorite trainer, William Walden.
Tactical Angles and Pace
Top Selection: Expect jockey Flavian Prat to keep the leaders in his sights as they close for home. This runner is very tactical, and has been getting better each time out. When taking blinkers off, trainer Walden hits at 44%.
Alternative Spread Option: A runner to consider if you wish to spread is #4 Title Role 9-2, who could try and run them off their feet with jockey John Velazquez at the helm.
Race 12: 6:37 EST The Whitney Gr 1 1 ⅛ Mile Dirt 1 Million
Oh boy, the lineup just keeps getting better and better, and this edition of The Whitney is the cherry on top.
Dirt Route Contenders
Primary Play: A case could be made for many runners here, but we like #8 Baeza at 7-2. Consensus is, he needs to get a good break to getaway cleanly, and he will have a good chance of winning. With no runners to his right, jockey Flavian Prat should get him away cleanly.
Morning Line Favorite: The ML favorite #1 Magnitude 9-5 looks very solid from the rail, and jockey Jose Ortiz is looking to put this runner in the winners circle for the 5th time in a row.
Race 13: 7:15 EST OC55K/N1X 7 Furlongs Dirt
Don’t let the conditions of this race fool you, another super race to breakdown.
Class Drops and Speed Ratings
Top Selections: Trainer William Walden has entered the #8 Battis Grove 3-1 and the #9 Beach Heist 6-1. We will be using both runners on our ticket, and like #8 the best as the #1 Prime Power per Brisnet. The drop in class, and the highest last race speed rating add to the appeal.
Race 14: 7:48 EST OC55K/N1X 1 ⅜ Turf
Ditto on this marathon turf race, where the conditions mirror race 13.
Marathon Turf Specialists
Primary Target: We are landing on the #7 Complex Agenda 9-2, with jockey Ricardo Santana looking to put this runner on the lead. He is trying a marathon race for the 2nd time, and two races back, ran a race that fits perfectly here.
Distance Winner: Only one runner in the body of the race has won at the distance, #4 Versailles Road 5-1, with hot jockey Manny Franco getting back in the saddle for trainer Todd Pletcher, who is heating up as well.
Suggested Ticket Structure
So our ticket looks like this:
1,2,5,6 / 10 / 1,3,6,8 / 2,8,9 / 2,4,7,8 = $96
How to Tune In
Take our picks, put them together with who you like, and let’s all have some winning tickets. So be sure to tune in Saturday at 12:30 on Capital Sports Network, where Let ‘em Run will break down the races further after scratches and any changes. Scratches may have a big impact on several races in the sequence. My partner John Kostin will again have “boots on the ground” in Saratoga to provide any inside, onsight info that may prove valuable to our viewers. We can be seen on Capital Sports Network and multiple streaming apps and social channels. As always, bet smart, cheer hard, fast horses can lead to serious fun, and just Let ‘em Run.
