Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifts ratings in 9 Florida congressional districts — and not all the same direction

Florida’s new congressional map prompted one of Washington’s top election prognosticators to change ratings on nine seats. Not all of them moved in Republicans’ favor.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a project of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, made significant changes after Gov. Ron DeSantis signed the map. The new cartography leaves just four of 28 U.S. House districts in the state where a majority voted for Democrat Kamala Harris for President in 2024.

Analysts for Crystal Ball moved four congressional seats in Republicans’ direction.

That included moving Florida’s 9th Congressional District — where U.S. Rep. Darren Soto was already targeted by House Republicans — from the “Likely Democratic” category to the “Likely Republican” one.

The charts also push Florida’s 14th Congressional District — where Democratic U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor will seek re-election — from “Safe Democratic” to “Leans Republican.”

In South Florida, the seat moves Florida’s 22nd Congressional District from “Safe Democratic” to “Leans Republican.” Under the current map, that is represented by U.S. Rep. Lois Frankel, but the West Palm Beach Democrat will likely run in Florida’s 23rd Congressional District on the new map. No Democrat has said they will run in CD 22 yet.

Florida’s 25th Congressional District, now represented by Democratic U.S. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, goes from “Safe Democratic” to “Toss-up” on the new map, which also dramatically remakes the seat. It’s unclear where Wasserman Schultz or U.S. Rep. Jared Moskowitz, the Democrat representing the outgoing CD 23, will run.

While that charts out a potential four Republican net gains on the map, the site also shifts several other seats away from the GOP.

It takes CD 23, where Moskowitz was targeted, out of “Leans Democratic.” On the makeup that will likely attract Frankel, the seat is now listed as “Safe Democratic.”

But the predictions for four seats considered “Safe Republican” move into play, albeit only in the “Likely Republican” column, in the new analysis.

That includes Florida’s 7th Congressional District, where the lines don’t change but U.S. Rep. Cory Mills is increasingly hounded by personal scandals.

But the map also sees vulnerability in Florida’s 12th Congressional District, where GOP U.S. Rep. Gus Bilirakis is seeking re-election but was not considered vulnerable before.

An open Florida’s 16th Congressional District race, where U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan was already retiring, also went from the “Safe” to “Likely” Republican column.

And targeted GOP U.S. Rep. María Elvira Salazar, in Florida’s 27th Congressional District, also saw the same ratings change.