Ryan Tyson says it’s still unlikely Democrats win statewide in Florida, but not impossible

One of Gov. Ron DeSantis’ top pollsters says Republicans shouldn’t take anything for granted in Florida this year.

Pollster Ryan Tyson, founder of The Tyson Group, said the current political environment more closely mirrors Democratic tidal waves like the 2006 Midterms than it does typical Midterms.

“It is statistically improbable that a Democrat can be successful, right, for a statewide — statistically improbable,” Tyson said. “But it’s no longer impossible.”

What does that mean for the Florida Governor’s race?

Tyson said Donalds will most likely win based on a rightward shift in the electorate.

“When you take simple math, it’s an R+15,” Tyson said. “Assuming all those variables go against you and it cut the margin in half, you’re still winning.”

He does wonder why a progressive hasn’t shaken up a race between former U.S. Rep. David Jolly and Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings. But he suspects Jolly wins and becomes a formidable contender.

But both Tyson and Florida Politics publisher Peter Schorsch told a crowd at Florida TaxWatch’s Florida Policy Forum that the race could be closer than many expected a year ago.

The concern for front-runner Byron Donalds may be tying himself too much to an unpopular President. Each said Donalds, who has relied on an endorsement from President Donald Trump to dominate the GOP Primary field, will see that morph into political baggage in November.

“He’s going to spend $50 or $60 million telling everybody that he’s endorsed by Donald Trump. And I just don’t know that that’s a great message come October,” Schorsch said. “You run that for the six weeks up into the Primary to make sure you win, and then you’ve got to go try and convince everybody that you’re not Donald Trump.”

Neither Schorsch nor Tyson felt that U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody will have as much trouble running in the other marquee statewide race. That’s largely because the top Democrat in the field, Alex Vindman, comes from out of state and may prove to be a better national fundraiser than retail campaigner.

“I would be shocked to see how Vindman breaks 38%,” Tyson said.

But recent Special Election results where Democrats flipped heavily Republican seats show there’s reason to think surprises can still happen.

Schorsch noted that turnout projections and polling didn’t predict the wins by Democrat Emily Gregory for a House seat in Trump’s back yard or Brian Nathan for a Senate seat in Tampa Bay.

“The models aren’t modeling,” he said.