Retail sales across America should see an increase this year

A consumer spending forecast projects that retail sales across America should increase in 2026, and Florida is expected to keep pace.

That’s according to the National Retail Federation (NRF). The report published this month by the NRF foresees retail sales climbing to $5.6 trillion this year across the country. That’s a 4.4% increase over the 2025 figure.

“Consumer spending was a steady and reliable engine of growth in 2025, even as broader economic conditions fluctuated,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “We expect that consumer resilience to continue into 2026, with household spending once again serving as a pillar of economic support.”

While the outlook for national retail spending is robust, Florida will likely keep pace with the sales pace.

“Florida’s retail industry doesn’t follow national trends, it helps set them,” said Scott Shalley, President and CEO of the Florida Retail Federation (FRF). “Our retailers are open for business, welcoming new growth and ready for another year of providing exceptional service and unique experiences to shoppers across the state.”

The report was published March 18, early on in the fallout from the conflict in Iran. NRF officials acknowledge the upbeat forecast could be impacted by several factors, including the war.

“Renewed tensions in the Middle East and the ripple effects across global markets are adding more uncertainty to the economic landscape,” NRF Chief Economist and Executive Director of Research Mark Mathews said.

“While the geopolitical environment and ongoing trade policy challenges warrant close attention, we remain optimistic that the underlying fundamentals of the U.S. economy will support continued stability in the year ahead.”

The NRF used Oxford Economics, an economic advisory firm, to help develop the forecast. While Shalley is optimistic about Florida spending, the forecast did not provide projections for individual states. FRF officials point out there are 3.6 million retail jobs in the Sunshine State accounting for an estimated $239 billion contribution to Florida’s annual economy.

The FRF, meanwhile, is keeping up its buy-local campaign with the “Find It in Florida” promotion that highlights retailers throughout the state.

The 2026 NRF national forecast projects the annual retail sales growth rate will be greater than average. That growth figure is about 3.6% for the past decade.