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Republicans in line to maintain grip on Florida political power

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Republicans have gained registered voters in every Florida county since 2022.

Republicans have been on a good run of nabbing political power in Florida for much of the past decade, and a new Florida Chamber of Commerce poll shows Sunshine State voters like what they see from the GOP.

When asked which party voters are likely to support next year, 50% of Floridians said they would vote for Republican candidates. Only 38% said they would likely support Democratic candidates.

Republicans will enjoy that momentum mainly because the number of registered Republicans in Florida exceeds registered Democratic voters and the margin is growing wider. The Chamber poll included data on registered voters, and Democrats are in trouble.

There were 5.632 million registered Republicans in the Sunshine State as of Dec. 31. That’s an advantage of about 1.157 million voters over Democrats, who now have around 4.475 million registered voters.

While that is an impressive edge, Republicans don’t have a monopoly on voting quite yet. The wild card still is held by no-party voters and that represents a large voting bloc. There are still 4.138 million Floridians who prefer not to be a member of the GOP or the Democratic Party.

But the stark reality is that Republicans have gained registered voters in all of the 67 counties in Florida while Democrats have seen registration for their party drop in every county since 2022.

Republicans also now hold every statewide elected office. The GOP benefited from President Donald Trump maintaining his Florida home in Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach County and both chambers of the Legislature are ruled by Republicans.

Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis shored up his power base when he was easily re-elected to another four-year term in 2022. In 2024, despite some Democrats claiming the state might be in play for them again in the Presidential Election, Republicans drubbed the Democrats. Trump trounced Democratic challenger Kamala Harris, winning the Florida presidential vote 56.1% to 43%.


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Dept. of Corrections head says OT costs are becoming a serious problem

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Florida’s prison population has increased by about 8,000 inmates since 2021 with no corresponding increase in staff, meaning that correctional officers are working more overtime hours than ever before.

And that’s a problem, says Department of Corrections Secretary Ricky Dixon.

“What that caused us to have to do is open up 53 housing units across our state that we did not get FTE (full-time employees) for or funding for, so the only way to manage those additional 53 housing units required over 800 officers. (That places the burden) on the backs of the existing officers, in addition to overtime,” Dixon told the Senate Appropriations Committee on Criminal and Civil Justice on Wednesday.

While the number of overtime hours has dropped in the past two fiscal years, Dixon showed in his slide presentation, the actual costs to the Department have increased, because the base salary for correctional officers has increased from $33,520 in 2020 to over $47,000 currently.

There are approximately 88,000 inmates in Florida’s prisons, but Dixon expects another 3,000 inmates within the next two years, who will require 18 more housing units and 461 more staff positions. “So, this overtime issue is not going away. It’s just going to continue to escalate.”

In addition to increasing the salaries of correction officers in recent years, the Legislature has paid for 275 new education jobs in state prisons, which Dixon said has been somewhat of a mixed bag.

“The immediate benefit is it’s reducing violence in our prisons, because we’re reducing inmate idleness, but the negative is that we didn’t get any security positions to secure the education building,” he said. He’s had to pull security positions from housing units to education facilities, adding to the staffing burden and increasing overtime costs.

The corrections secretary said that many of the officers in Florida prisons lack tenure, with 58% having less than two years’ experience and 70% less than three. “That’s the prison system that we’re running right now. The inmates have more experience than the officers,” he said.

More violent offenders

He cautioned lawmakers that the prison system is “getting a much more violent and volatile offender in our system.”

“The inmates are getting more violent,” he said. “That requires a more intense higher level of staffing. That impacts overtime in the prisons.”

Dixon said the solution is ultimately to more staff.

“If we have a funded position for all of the housing units, all the dorms, even if we have vacancies, the dollars associated with those positions generate enough funds to pay for overtime.”

Currently, the department is running a $189 million deficit, which Dixon says he hopes the Legislature addresses in the state budget later this year.

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Mitch Perry reporting. Florida Phoenix is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Florida Phoenix maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Michael Moline for questions: [email protected].


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Behavioral Health Day spotlights mental health treatment in Tallahassee

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Some 70 community mental health and substance abuse treatment providers gathered in Tallahassee to mark Behavioral Health Day in Florida.

The group convened at the Florida Historic Capitol Museum to mark the day and raise awareness about mental health issues in the state and increase access to treatment.

During the event, speakers pointed out the value of substance use and mental health treatments and advocated the right treatment services for Floridians. The event was organized by the Florida Behavioral Health Association (FBHA)

“Behavioral Health Day provides us the opportunity to share the incredible innovations Florida’s mental health and substance use treatment providers and partners are doing each day to help heal our communities,” said Melanie Brown-Woofter, President and CEO of FBHA. “As many of us know, behavioral health challenges and disorders can affect anyone at any time, and making sure that every family has access to services is our top priority.”

Department of Children and Families Secretary Shevaun Harris joined the news conference and pointed out that treating mental health issues and substance abuse is a collective effort from many corners of the state.

“Our department is responsible for supporting the behavioral health system of care for individuals with serious mental illnesses or substance abuse disorders, and with the help of our many partners we have come so far in building a robust system,” Harris said.

“Thanks to the leadership of Gov. Ron DeSantis and First Lady Casey DeSantis, and the Florida Legislature, and through investments to reduce the number of Baker Acts and increase access to key services such as the 988 Florida Lifeline, Care Coordination, multidisciplinary teaming models, mobile response teams and substance abuse prevention and treatment, we are better able to support recovery and resiliency.”

Helping to sponsor the day was Rep. Traci Koster, a Tampa Republican who said mental health and substance abuse affects just about every Floridian.

“I am deeply committed to ensuring that every Floridian has access to the tools and resources needed to thrive in their mental well-being,” Koster said. “Advocating for mental health and substance use treatment is a cause I fight for every day, both in Tallahassee and within my district.”

The event also highlighted urgent care and counseling is always available in Florida. Anyone in Florida in the midst of a mental health crisis or knows someone who is suffering a crisis can call 9-8-8 by phone. Casey DeSantis has also established “Hope Navigators” that can help families and children through the Hope Florida initiative.


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Debbie Mayfield says Cord Byrd slow-walked disqualifying her from Special Election ballot

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Rep. Debbie Mayfield is firing back at Florida Secretary of State Cord Byrd in court as she continues to fight to appear on the ballot in a Special Election in SD 19.

Mayfield petitioned the Florida Supreme Court to intervene, arguing the State Department overstepped by disqualifying her when no one else had legally challenged her candidacy.

She continues to make the case for the high court quickly reinstating her to the ballot; timing matters, as Brevard County mails out ballots to military and overseas voters Friday.

The newest Mayfield motion was filed in response to attorneys for Florida Secretary of State Cord Byrd defending disqualifying her from the ballot. Mayfield says that Byrd’s Office should have informed her earlier of a potential qualification issue related to having served eight years in the Senate already.

“On the merits of Mayfield’s eligibility, the Secretary’s interpretation of Section 4 is wrong. As explained in the Petition, the plain wording and intent of Section 4 is to prohibit incumbents from running for re-election to an office they have held for the preceding eight years. Moreover, it is not true that if Mayfield were elected to SD 19 she would serve twelve consecutive years in that office. She has not been in that office since her term ended in 2024,” the filing to the Florida Supreme Court reads.

The Division of Elections rejected Mayfield’s candidacy in Senate District 19 because she already served in the seat for eight consecutive years, including most of 2024. She was elected to the House in November.

Despite the interregnum between her election and the upcoming Special Election, the state’s attorneys argue that running again would violate term limit rules on lawmakers running for an office they have already held for eight consecutive years.

Mayfield’s lawyers say the move disenfranchises voters in SD 19 and denies Mayfield’s right to be a candidate. They also contend that Mayfield wasn’t given a window in which she could dispute the state’s position.

“In support of his argument for rolling back the availability of quo warranto relief, the Secretary suggests Mayfield could have pursued declaratory and injunctive relief in circuit court. However, until the Secretary made a determination on Feb. 5, 2025 that Mayfield was not qualified, any effort by her to obtain declaratory or injunctive relief in circuit court would have been dismissed for lack of ripeness,” the filing maintains.

Mayfield takes a similar position regarding the state contention that she should have preemptively sought an advisory opinion regarding her eligibility from the Division of Elections. Her attorneys claim she was “confident” that she was a qualified candidate, and that the Division was under no obligation to offer a “timely” opinion.

The filing also argues that it’s “clear” that Section 4 of the constitution, which the state argues precludes her eligibility, was not intended to apply to a non-incumbent.

“The ballot summary for the amendment resulting in Section 4 stated the amendment “(l)imits terms by prohibiting incumbents who have held the same elective office for the preceding eight years from appearing on the ballot for re-election to that office.”

Mayfield served in the Senate from 2016 to 2024, and could not seek another term in November due to term limits. She instead ran for and won a seat in the House last cycle representing House District 32.

But when Sen. Randy Fine, her successor in the Senate, resigned to run for Congress, Mayfield announced she would seek her old Senate seat in a Special Election. She had already submitted an irrevocable resignation from the House when the state disqualified her.

Currently qualified candidates include former Melbourne City Council member Tim Thomas; Marcie Adkins, who challenged Fine for his House seat in 2020; and Mark Lightner III, a University of North Florida business graduate and Brevard County native.

Mayfield has claimed the state is punishing her for her support of Donald Trump in the Presidential Primary in 2024 against Gov. Ron DeSantis. She says the Florida Department of State has been weaponized against her.

___

Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics contributed to this report.


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