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Republicans are counting on Hispanic voters to break right in CD 9, unseating Darren Soto in 2026

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Despite being targeted by national Republicans last election cycle, U.S. Rep. Darren Soto won re-election by 12 percentage points. But as Hispanic voters in Florida and across the country tilt further right, the GOP sees the Kissimmee Democrat as more vulnerable in 2026.

That’s even as Democrats hope to capitalize on Midterm outrage over President Donald Trump’s return to office and controversial policies, and to retake a House majority lost in last year’s presidential election cycle.

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) on Thursday told Punchbowl News there will be a concerted effort to flip many heavily Latino districts from blue to red. NRCC spokesperson Maureen O’Toole told Florida Politics that includes Florida’s 9th Congressional District.

“Hispanic communities are sick and tired of radical Democrat Darren Soto turning his back on Floridians time and again,” O’Toole said in an email. “Hispanics are forcefully rejecting the far-left agenda that resulted in years of open borders, skyrocketing prices and woke insanity like men in girls’ sports. Republicans are the party of common sense and Hispanic voters know it.”

Florida Republicans felt heartened when a majority of voters in Osceola County, which makes up the bulk of Soto’s district, supported Trump in the November election. The Republican carried the county by only about 2,500 votes, but that was four years after Democrat Joe Biden beat Trump in the county by more than 17 percentage points.

The NRCC noted in CD 9 overall, voters shifted Republican by almost a 23-point swing between 2016, when Soto first won election, to 2024 (notably, district lines shifted as part of the decennial redistricting in that time). The GOP vote share among Latino voters nationwide, meanwhile, grew from 29% in 2018 to 43% in 2024.

Still, Soto won Osceola County in November by almost 10 percentage points, receiving about 16,000 more votes than Republican Thomas Chalifoux. His campaign expressed confidence the voters in CD 9 will stick with him next year, especially after living under Trump’s policies for nearly two years.

“We consistently won by delivering for our community in jobs, infrastructure, healthcare, environment, and more,” reads a statement from Soto’s campaign to Florida Politics.

“Under Trump, Hispanics see prices rising, hateful division and their immigrant family members deported by the thousands. The GOP’s Big Ugly Law has record cuts to Medicaid, Obamacare, nutrition, Pell grants and Medicare along with record national debt that hurts our families. That’s why nearly 60% of Americans oppose it according to a recent Fox News Poll.”

The statement’s reference to the “Big Ugly Law” is a dig on Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” which includes an expansion of the tax cuts he implemented in his first term that would have expired, as well as cuts to various programs, including Medicaid, Medicare and food assistance, among others.

Of course, the Soto campaign’s confidence is predicated on lines remaining unchanged before 2026. Gov. Ron DeSantis has toyed with a mid-decade redistricting, and even called for a new Census that leaves out undocumented individuals.

“I think it’s unconstitutional that they’re counted in the census,” DeSantis said earlier this week.

If another round of redistricting were to occur, it could have a significant impact on the boundaries of CD 9, which was drawn as a Hispanic majority district in 2022.

Soto has already promised to fight any efforts to redraw the lines ahead of next year’s election, and attributed any conversation about doing so to political panic.

“A reckoning is coming for Republicans next election and they know it,” his campaign said in its statement. “That’s why they want to cheat and try to draw new districts across Florida. We will fight them on all these fronts and more for the good of Central Florida.”


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Ron DeSantis says GOP must go on offense ahead of Midterms to bring back ‘complacent’ voters

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Gov. Ron DeSantis is continuing to warn Republicans that next year’s Midterm contests may not go their way if the party doesn’t change course.

He recommends that Republicans make a strong case for what they will do if they somehow retain control of Congress next year, given that “in an off-year Midterm, the party in power’s voters tend to be more complacent.”

But DeSantis, who himself served nearly three terms in Congress before resigning to focus on his campaign for Governor in 2018, says House Republicans haven’t accomplished much, and they need to be proactive in the time that’s left.

“I just think you’ve got to be bold. I think you’ve got to be strong. And I think one of the frustrations with the Congress is, what have they done since August till now? They really haven’t done anything, right?” DeSantis explained on “Fox & Friends.”

“I’d be like, every day, coming out with something new and make the Democrats go on the record, show the contrast.”

The Governor said the economy and immigration are two issues that would resonate with voters.

On immigration, DeSantis believes his party should remind voters that President Donald Trump stopped the “influx” of illegal border crossers given passage when Joe Biden was in power.

After providing contrast to some of his policy wins through the end of 2023 in Florida, DeSantis suggested that the GOP needs to blame the opposition party regarding continued economic struggles.

“Democrats, they caused a lot of this with the inflation and now they’re acting like … they had nothing to do with it,” he said.

DeSantis’ latest comments come after Tuesday’s narrow GOP victory in deep-red Tennessee, in yet another election where a candidate for Congress underperformed President Donald Trump.

Republican Matt Van Epps defeated Democrat Aftyn Behn by roughly 9 points in the Nashville area seat. That’s less than half the margin by which Trump bested Kamala Harris in 2024. This is after U.S. Reps. Randy Fine and Jimmy Patronis won by smaller margins than expected in Special Elections in Florida earlier this year.

Though partisan maps protect the GOP in many cases, with just a seven-vote advantage over Democrats in Congress there is scant room for error.

Bettors seem to believe the House will flip, with Democratic odds of victory at 78% on Polymarket on Friday morning.



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Ron DeSantis again downplays interest in a second presidential run

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The question won’t go away.

Gov. Ron DeSantis may be out of state, just like he was when he ran for President in 2024, but that doesn’t mean he’s eyeing another run for the White House.

“I’ve got my hands full, man. I’m good,” he told Stuart Varney during an in-studio interview Friday in New York City, responding to a question about his intentions.

DeSantis added that it was “not the first time” he got that question, which persists amid expectations of a crowded field of candidates to succeed President Donald Trump.

“I’m not thinking about anything because I think we have a President now who’s not even been in for a year. We’ve got a lot that we’ve got to accomplish,” the term-limited Governor told Jake Tapper last month when asked about 2028.

It may be for the best that DeSantis isn’t actively running, given some recent polls.

DeSantis, who ran in 2024 before withdrawing after failing to win a single county in the Iowa caucuses, has just 2% support in the latest survey from Emerson College.

Recent polling from the University of New Hampshire says he’ll struggle again in what is historically the first-in-the-nation Primary state. The “Granite State Poll,” his worst showing in any state poll so far, shows the Florida Governor with 3% support overall.

In January 2024, DeSantis had different messaging after leaving the GOP Primary race.

“When I was in Iowa, a lot of these folks that stuck with the President were very supportive of what I’ve done in Florida. They thought I was a good candidate,” DeSantis said. “I even had people say they think that I would even do better as President, but they felt that they owed Trump another shot. And so I think we really made a strong impression.”

But that was then, this is now.



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First place at stake for Jaguars vs. Colts

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How big is Sunday’s game for the Jaguars?

According to The Athletic, the Jaguars have an 83% chance of making the playoffs entering the weekend. That’s a pretty good bet. At 8-4, the Jaguars are currently in the third spot in the AFC.

However, Jacksonville stands a 42% chance of winning the division, slightly better than Sunday’s opponent, the Indianapolis Colts (8-4), who sit at 34% to win the AFC South.

With both games against the Colts still on the schedule and matchups with the struggling New York Jets, a trip to Denver to face the surging Broncos, and the season finale at home against the Tennessee Titans, the Jaguars need only to win the games they should win to make the playoffs.

Leaving the Colts games aside for the moment, if the Jaguars simply beat the Jets and Titans, they would have 10 wins. That is almost certainly enough to earn a postseason spot.

So, in a way, Sunday’s game against the Colts isn’t make-or-break. However, if the Jaguars want to win the division and host a playoff game, at least one win over the Colts is essential. Should the Jaguars win Sunday, they would hold a 1-game advantage over the Colts and, for the time being, hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Indianapolis.

By one metric, the Jaguars can increase their playoff odds to 95% with a victory on Sunday. Even with a loss, they are a good bet to make the playoffs as a wild-card team. But the chance to start the postseason with a home game is a powerful advantage, one that division winners enjoy.

Health will be a major factor in Sunday’s game. The Jaguars hope to have wide receiver/kick returner Parker Washington and defensive end Travon Walker back in the lineup. Both missed some or all of last week’s game but practiced in a limited basis this week. Starting left tackle Walker Little and safety Andrew Wingard remained in the concussion protocol this week. Starting right guard Patrik Mekari returned from concussion protocol on Wednesday.

The Colts are also dealing with injuries. Cornerback Sauce Gardner did not practice this week, while quarterback Daniel Jones continues to play with a fracture in his leg.

The key matchup could be strength vs. strength. Indianapolis running back Jonathan Taylor leads the NFL in rushing with 1,282 yards, while the Jaguars are the league’s top rush defense, allowing opponents only 82.4 yards per contest. No running back has run for more than 90 yards against the Jaguars this season, and only one, Houston’s Woody Marks, has rushed for more than 70 yards in a game. Taylor averages nearly 107 yards per game this season.

The Jaguars last made the playoffs in 2022 in Doug Pederson’s first season as head coach. Liam Coen is trying to replicate the feat.

Interestingly, the game is one of three in the NFL this weekend with first place on the line.

The Baltimore Ravens host the Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday. Both teams are 6-6, and the winner will lead the AFC North. The Chicago Bears (9-3) also travel to Green Bay to face the Packers (8-3-1), with the winner taking the top spot in the NFC North.



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