Report warns loosening vaccine requirements could cost Florida $9B

A new economic analysis examining the long-term fiscal impact of reducing Florida’s childhood vaccine requirements projects significant losses to the state’s economy, workforce, and tax base over the next decade.

The report, prepared by the Regional Economic Consulting Group, founded by two former senior state economists, estimates that weakening school-entry vaccine safeguards could reduce Florida’s gross domestic product by $9 billion, eliminate 64,644 jobs, and cut state and local tax revenues by nearly $1 billion over ten years.

More than 90% of the projected economic losses stem from preventable mortality and productivity declines associated with reduced vaccination coverage.

“Policy decisions that reduce vaccination coverage are not cost-neutral,” said Northe Saunders, president of American Families for Vaccines. “This analysis shows that weakening Florida’s long-standing vaccine safeguards would carry measurable economic consequences for families, employers, and state revenues. These are not abstract projections; they reflect lost jobs, lower wages, and reduced economic growth.”

The analysis also forecasts significant regional impacts. Over ten years, projected losses include $2.5 billion in Miami, $1.3 billion in Tampa, $1.2 billion in Orlando, and $717 million in Jacksonville.

“Florida families care about both public health and economic stability,” said Kas Miller, Director of Florida Families for Vaccines. “When vaccination rates decline, outbreaks increase – and that means missed work, higher health care costs, caregiving burdens, and long-term economic damage. Protecting Florida’s vaccine safeguards protects our kids and our economy.”

Health care leaders echoed concerns regarding workforce and community stability.

“Vaccination policies are foundational to keeping children healthy and communities functioning,” said Dr. Rana Alissa, president of the Florida Chapter of the American Academy of Pediatrics. “When preventable diseases return, the effects ripple beyond clinics and hospitals. They disrupt schools, workplaces, and families. Maintaining Florida’s long-standing vaccine safeguards helps prevent illness, protect children, and preserve the stability that communities depend on.”

The report also examined Florida’s tourism economy, warning that a 1% decline in visitor levels due to outbreak concerns could jeopardize $1.3 billion in annual spending and put nearly 7,000 jobs at risk.

“Florida has built one of the strongest economies in the world, and that growth is powered by our people,” said Julio Fuentes, president and CEO of the Florida State Hispanic Chamber of Commerce. “When preventable illness disrupts workforce participation and consumer confidence, the implications for productivity and competitiveness are real. Stability and predictability are essential to Florida’s long-term economic success, and our long-standing vaccine safeguards are a key part of that foundation.”

The findings arrive as lawmakers and state health officials consider potential changes to Florida’s long-standing school-entry immunization requirements.

Tomorrow, the Senate Appropriations Committee will meet to consider SB 1756, a “Medical Freedom” bill that would expand vaccine exemptions, revise parental consent processes, and change how immunization policies are implemented during public health emergencies. The Florida Department of Health is simultaneously considering rulemaking to repeal several long-standing school-entry vaccine requirements.

“Florida’s long-standing vaccine safeguards have helped protect children, support workforce stability, and prevent the kinds of outbreaks that disrupt families and businesses,” said Sen. Gayle Harrell. “When policy decisions affect the health of our communities and also have the potential to affect jobs, tax revenues, and health care costs at this scale, we have a responsibility to consider the full picture.”

REC Group’s modeling also found reduced household earnings of $2.7 billion and increased direct government health care spending exceeding $3 billion over ten years.

“Over 90% of the projected long-term loss, approximately $7 billion of the $9 billion total, is tied to preventable mortality,” said Jared Parker, Founding Partner and Economic Consultant at Regional Economic Consulting Group. “That magnitude of preventable mortality translates into tens of thousands fewer jobs and a measurable reduction in earnings and state revenues.”

The findings mirror recent statewide polling that shows eight in ten Florida voters support maintaining current childhood vaccine safeguards.

The report, Economic Impact of Removing Childhood Vaccine Requirements in Florida, was prepared for American Families for Vaccines.