Miami’s mayoral race ended Tuesday night with a political shift that would have seemed unlikely just a year ago: The election of a Democrat, Eileen Higgins, to replace term-limited Republican Mayor Francis Suarez. In a city that voted for Donald Trump by less than a point in the 2024 presidential election, the result raises a fundamental question about how Miami’s electorate is evolving.
Many issues shaped this Fall’s campaign, including cost of living, corruption, and fatigue over the area’s political dynasties. But one factor over which the city has no direct control appears to have also played an important role: immigration. Specifically, the aggressive national immigration policies associated with the Trump and DeSantis administrations.
Few American cities are as deeply defined by immigration as Miami. More than 58% of Miami-Dade residents are foreign-born, According to an analysis by the Forum for Together, making the county one of the most immigrant-dense metropolitan areas in the United States. Roughly 72% of Miami’s foreign-born population comes from Latin America, and more than half of all households speak a language other than English at home. Immigrants also fuel Miami’s economy, making up nearly 66% of the labor force, including significant representation in health care, construction, hospitality, and professional services.
This demographic reality helps explain why immigration has long been more than a talking point in Miami — it is personal. And in recent years, the city has transformed into one of the most attractive destinations in the world to live and work. As outgoing Mayor Suarez likes to say, Miami has emerged as a bona fide capital of technology and finance, attracting entrepreneurs, venture capital, global corporations, and top talent drawn to its climate, culture, and international connectivity. With this growth has come a renewed understanding that Miami’s strength lies in its identity as a city built and sustained by people from other places, both inside and outside the United States.
Against this backdrop, the hardening of national immigration rhetoric appears to have pushed many Miami voters, including Republican-leaning Hispanics and No Party Affiliates, toward candidates seen as more protective of immigrants already living and working in the community.
National data underscores this trend. A November 2025 Pew Research Center survey found that majorities of Latinos disapprove of Trump and his policies on immigration and the economy. More strikingly, the survey showed that immigration — often assumed to motivate conservative voting — has in fact become a mobilizing issue for Latinos who oppose mass deportation and family separation. Latinos surveyed overwhelmingly rejected policies targeting long-standing undocumented residents, even when they supported stronger border controls.
A recent Kissimmee-based Kaplan Strategies poll highlighted how this dynamic is playing out locally: Miami voters overwhelmingly support border security, yet a majority also oppose blanket deportations of undocumented immigrants who have become rooted in the community. This dual view — security paired with compassion — reflects a nuanced position that does not align neatly with the national Republican message.
Over the last couple of months, an organization called Freedom and Opportunity Alliance launched a digital, television, and billboard campaign in the weeks leading up to Miami’s election. The group bills itself as supporting strong borders and the deportation of violent criminals, while also opposing the removal of long-established, law-abiding undocumented residents who contribute to local economies. The group’s ads, which ran across major platforms, sought to thread the needle between security and humanity, a balance consistent with voter sentiment.
When viewed together, the data tells a compelling story. Miami’s immigrant-rich population remains sensitive to rhetoric or policies that threaten broad deportation. While voters care deeply about safety and border enforcement, they are equally committed to protecting neighbors, coworkers, and families who form the city’s social and economic bedrock.
In this year’s mayoral race, that tension appears to have broken decisively toward the candidate who most aligned with Miami’s lived reality — not the national rhetoric.