Rays stadium deal ‘on the rocks’ amid Gov. DeSantis’ property tax cut push

The Tampa Bay Rays Tampa stadium deal is “on the rocks,” according to a powerful Tampa Bay area lawmaker normally supportive of the plan.

The reason, the lawmaker tells Florida Politics, is Gov. Ron DeSantis’ push to eliminate a large portion of property taxes for homestead properties that’s under consideration in a brief Special Session this week.

“Everything, not just the Rays, seems to be on hold until after November because of the property tax initiative,” a source familiar with the negotiations told Florida Politics.

While opposition related to the property tax proposal would seem related to local funding concerns — the neighboring city of St. Petersburg expects the proposal to create a $75 million hit to its annual budget by 2029 — County Commissioners and Tampa politicians are more concerned with the optics of giving DeSantis a win on the Rays while he’s simultaneously saddling them with a potential fiscal crisis.

Meanwhile, officials are also unsure that the math even checks out on the deal.

At issue is DeSantis’ property tax proposal that would raise the state’s homestead exemption from the current $50,000 to $250,000, and eventually to $500,000. Local governments have lamented the proposal as a major challenge to their own budgets, warning that cuts would inevitably be required, potentially to even public safety.

Reports have already highlighted how the Rays proposal, which calls for nearly $1 billion in public financing from Hillsborough County and the city of Tampa, becomes more complicated if a property tax cut is approved. The plan’s primary source of public funding comes from the city and county community investment taxes, which have already taken a hit as a result of the 2025 elimination of sales tax on commercial property, the Tampa Bay Business Journal reported in early May.

Both the Hillsborough County Commission and Tampa City Council have already signed off on a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the Rays related to the stadium and associated development plan at the Hillsborough College Dale Mabry campus, but those MOUs are nonbinding, meaning either government board could still back out or demand changes.

The property tax proposal is currently under consideration by lawmakers in a Special Session expected to end Wednesday. Both the House and Senate have advanced DeSantis’ proposal, but with changes.

Even if the proposal clears the Legislature — which it’s expected to do in at least some iteration of what DeSantis had requested — the measure must then pass voter muster in November. And it would require 60% support to become law, a high bar that has seen many initiatives die over the years even with majority voter support.

That’s why waiting until after November’s election might seem prudent, given the uncertainty.

But that could be a problem for the Rays. The team’s leaders are working on a tight deadline in hopes of having a new ballpark built in time for the 2029 season. Any delay in negotiations with local entities would likely jeopardize that timeline.

Still, the Rays may find there is little choice — starting a new process in another city would no doubt create even more delay.

But the conversations unfolding behind closed doors offer a high-profile local example of how statewide decision-making can have unintended consequences on otherwise unrelated matters locally.