For shareholders of Puma SE, 2025 has been a year to forget, with recent reports of a possible takeover providing only the thinnest of silver linings. While the stock bounced off its lows last week, it’s still down 54% year-to-date, putting the German sportswear company on track for its worst annual showing on record. Analysts see little, if any recovery over the next 12 months.
Puma is known for its sportswear and ‘puma’ logo – Reuters
On top of US tariffs- which have also weighed on shares of crosstown rival Adidas AG, and a broader slowdown in the sneaker and apparel industry- the Herzogenaurach-based firm faces an array of specific challenges. Among them has been the impact on the brand of heavy discounting and the encroachment of fast-growing rivals like On Holding AG, New Balance and Hoka, which have been taking more shelf space at retailers.
“Puma has struggled to come out with stuff that stands out in a very competitive market,” said Morningstar analyst David Swartz. “Other brands have come and really taken a lot of its business away.”
Puma’s revenue for this year is set to drop by 16%, according to Bloomberg estimates, which don’t project a return to growth before 2027. The company has attracted takeover interest, with its shares climbing 19% last Thursday- the largest gain since 2001- following a Bloomberg report that China’s Anta Sports Products Ltd. is among firms exploring a potential bid.
Puma’s largest shareholder, France’s billionaire Pinault family, had previously approached potential buyers. But with the stock trading near its lowest since 2016, valuation is seen to be a major hurdle for any potential deal.
“With Puma shares down this materially, I think it will be difficult for the Pinault family to agree on an attractive premium with a potential acquirer,” said Felix Dennl, an analyst at Bankhaus Metzler. “As the family is not a majority shareholder, a potential buyer always has the option to accumulate shares in the public market without a premium.” A representative for Puma declined to comment.
Founded through a feud that divided a family shoe business, Puma was created in 1948 by Rudolf Dassler after he split from his brother Adi, who in turn formed Adidas. The rivalry between the firms has continued, with chief executive officer Bjoern Gulden leaving Puma before joining Adidas in 2023. Since then, Adidas shares have outperformed their counterpart. Puma earlier this year replaced Gulden’s successor with Adidas veteran Arthur Hoeld.
The firm- which manufactures the official football used by the Premier League and produces kits for Manchester City, AC Milan, and Borussia Dortmund among others- has been trying to revamp itself under its new CEO. Hoeld has pledged to slash 900 more jobs and sharpen its focus toward running, football and training. Traders and analysts remain unconvinced that a turnaround is within close reach.
“The strategic plan outlined by the CEO was not radical enough,” to change investor views on the stock, wrote Deutsche Bank AG analyst Adam Cochrane in a note last month. Among the most bearish Bloomberg-tracked analysts, his €16 ($19) price target implies only downside over the next 12 months from where the stock is currently trading.
Short interest in Puma has been on the rise again since November, while more than two-thirds of Bloomberg-tracked analysts have a hold rating on the stock. Other competitors include Deckers Outdoor Corp.’s Hoka brand, or Roger Federer-backed On. The latter’s shares recently saw an uptick on better-than-expected third-quarter earnings and growth prospects.
But unlike Zurich-based On, seller of the industry’s most expensive running shoes on average, Puma has struggled to get rid of excess inventory, depressing margins, and battering its brand. “If your products are going on sale all the time and are often marked down, then people won’t pay full price for them anymore,” said Morningstar’s Swartz. “It’s very hard to fix once you get into that situation.”
