Poll shows CD 6 Special Election within margin of error

Republican Randy Fine holds the edge ahead of a Special Election for Congress. But his lead over Democrat Josh Weil falls within the poll’s margin of error despite the heavy GOP tilt of Florida’s 6th Congressional District.

That’s according to a survey done for Florida Politics by St. Pete Polls ahead of the Tuesday Special Election to succeed former U.S. Rep. Mike Waltz.

The results show Fine winning just over 48% of the vote, while Weil received just over 44%.

The poll of 403 likely voters in CD 6 was conducted on March 22. Pollsters report a 4.9% margin of error, greater than Fine’s lead.

And among those polled who said they already voted, more than half supported the Democrat. Weil leads 51% to 43% among those whose decision has already been made via a mail-in ballot or in-person early voting. According to the survey, about 38% of likely voters have already cast their ballots in the race.

That means Fine will have to make up the difference with those who vote between now and the close of polls on Tuesday at 7 p.m. if he intends to move into Congress. He definitely hopes for that, having already submitted an irrevocable resignation letter from the Florida Senate to run.

But Weil has massively outraised Fine. As of reports on fundraising through March 12, Weil had $1.3 million in cash on hand for the race’s final stretch, while Fine had just $93,000.

Democrats hope to capitalize on outrage at President Donald Trump. Indeed, while Trump won CD 6 by double digits in November and Waltz won re-election with 66.5% of the vote, less than 51% of voters in the district approve of the job Trump is doing as President. Trump is still above water in the district, with 45% disapproving. However, Fine underperforms Trump’s approval ratings in the poll.

According to the poll, voters without party affiliation are voting heavily for Weil, with 57% of those polled intending to back the Democrat and 34% supporting Fine. Meanwhile, about 14% of voters in the district are supporting Weil, while Fine is winning over just 9% of Democrats.

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