Poll shows Carlos Giménez’s lead narrowing in CD 28 amid economic, policy headwinds

An unpopular Venezuela strategy, a tepid economy and Washington’s divisive immigration policies could fuel a flip in Florida’s 28th Congressional District, according to new polling of the Miami-Dade seat.

South Florida consulting firms EDGE Communications and MDW Communications, which both scored Pollie Awards last week, surveyed 514 likely General Election voters in CD 28.

The poll was conducted in early March, before the Iran conflict erupted and gas prices surged past $4 per gallon. Voter support for incumbents has likely soured for many since.

It found incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Carlos Giménez is running just 6 percentage points ahead of potential Democratic challenger Hector Mujica — 46% to 40%, with 14% undecided.

There’s more good news for Mujica, a Venezuelan American entrepreneur and former Google executive now running for U.S. Senate. He leads Giménez by 5 points among third- and no-party voters (NPA), 39% to 34%, with 27% still undecided.

That topline gap shrinks to 4 points, 45%-41%, when candidate names are removed, and the pollsters note that margin may be slimmer given that the Iran war is pouring salt on voters’ economic anxieties and affordability is the top issue among respondents.

Both Giménez and President Donald Trump hold negative net favorability among NPAs — at -9 and -10 points, respectively — underscoring weakness with key swing voters as Trump’s ratings continue to sink amid broad disapproval of his administration’s policies.

“Mujica clearly has room to grow, with a generic ballot showing the Congressional race within the margin of error,” the memo reads. “Giménez holds a nominal lead in the initial ballot … but that margin is built on a fragile foundation: a politically toxic environment for Republicans and a district where the defining issues — affordability and corruption — favor a challenger.”

A Fox News poll last week found 41% of Americans approve of the job Trump has done as President in his second term. A poll from Harvard found 43% approval. Meanwhile, separate surveys by the Associated Press-NORC Research Center and Quinnipiac University placed Trump’s approval at 38, while a poll by the University of Massachusetts Amherst pinned his approval at 33% — the lowest ever.

Trump’s falling numbers come as the U.S. continues military operations against Iran, which has contributed to a surge in oil and gas prices, and raids by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) whose execution face broad disapproval nationwide.

EDGE-MDW pollsters found those policies and others are especially off-putting for NPA voters, among whom ICE raids and mass deportations have -19 net favorability and Iran military operations have -14 net favorability.

CD 28 voters aren’t keen on the Trump administration’s decision to allow Nicolás Maduro underling Delcy Rodríguez to hold power as Venezuela’s President after Maduro’s arrest in early January.

Just 1 in 4 voters approve of the move, which holds net -37 favorability among NPA voters.

Opinions are also split on ICE and the Trump administration’s broader mass deportation efforts, with 48% approving of the strategy and 49% opposed. The pro-ICE camp leans heavily on support from GOP voters, 90% of whom approve, but it’s losing its luster among NPAs, scoring a -19.

With Republicans controlling all levers of power in Washington, the pollsters argue Giménez’s re-election effort will be weighed down by the negative vibes. Factor in Giménez’s “concrete vulnerable vote record on health care and Medicaid” and CD 28 may be ripe for an upset, they wrote.

“This data confirms what we’re seeing across South Florida: voters are frustrated with the cost of living and tired of the same political dysfunction,” said EDGE Communications founder and President Christian Ulvert, who is signing on to advise Mujica.

“The path to victory for Hector Mujica in CD 28 runs through independent voters, who are already breaking away from Republicans and looking for a credible alternative focused on affordability and accountability.”

While it’s a smart bet that Mujica’s entry to the CD 28 race is imminent, he’s not in it yet. Federal Election Commission records suggest Democrat Phil Ehr, a retired U.S. Navy pilot who unsuccessfully challenged Giménez in 2024, is the only active candidate running against the incumbent this cycle.

The poll results were weighted by party, race, gender, geography and age. The margin of error was 4.3 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

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Jesse Scheckner contributed to this report.