Politics
Poll: Richard Lamondin tied with incumbent Alexis Calatayud in SD 38 as Election Day nears
Democrat Richard Lamondin has closed the voter gap between himself and Republican Sen. Alexis Calatayud as the election homestretch approaches in Senate District 38, new polling shows.
Washington-based Impact Research, a Democratic polling firm, surveyed 400 likely voters by phone and text Oct. 5-8. The firm’s finding: The SD 38 race in Miami-Dade County is tied weeks before Election Day, with Lamondin and Calatayud dead even at 40%.
No-party candidate Jeffrey Solomon holds 4% of the vote, while 15% of the district’s electorate remain undecided.
That’s a major development since July, when Impact found Calatayud leading 43% to 36% for Lamondin.
Pollsters noted that Lamondin now has a 9-point edge over Calatayud among voters with no party affiliation (43% to 34%) and a 15-point lead (42% to 27%) with what pollsters described as “independents/leaners” — voters who describe themselves as politically independent, regardless of whether they’re registered with one party or another.
“This seat is very much in play in 2026 — up and down the ballot in SD 38,” Impact personnel wrote.
The current electoral environment is advantageous for Lamondin, the firm noted, as the leader of Calatayud’s party, President Donald Trump, is 14 points underwater in a district he won in 2024 by 10 points.
“Voters also take real issue with Calatayud’s extreme immigration record, and our July benchmark found majorities with serious concerns about her record on insurance, housing and healthcare costs,” Impact personnel wrote.
Calatayud backed 2025 immigration laws expanding enforcement, ending undocumented students’ tuition waivers and mandating death sentences for undocumented immigrants convicted of capital felonies, though she supported an unsuccessful amendment that would have protected students already enrolled in Florida colleges and universities.
She also supported renewing the emergency fund used for the now-shuttered Alligator Alcatraz immigrant-detention facility in the Everglades.
Further, she voted for a 2022 law providing $1 billion for reinsurance and eliminating one-way attorneys fees in property insurance lawsuits. And while her Live Local Act supported housing development, critics have pointed to its overrides of certain local zoning restrictions and prohibition of local rent controls as troublesome.
She’s also backed a statewide Antisemitism Task Force, worked across the aisle on providing stopgap funding for AIDS medication, passed new survivor-inspired protections for domestic violence victims and cast one of just two Republican “no” votes in the Senate on the state’s six-week abortion ban.
Of note, voters still aren’t especially familiar with Calatayud despite her four years of service, with just 36% knowing her well enough to rate her job performance, pollsters found.
Not many know who Lamondin is, either, Impact added, recommending that he “will need resources to continue to introduce himself, answer attacks, and draw his contrast with the incumbent to flip this seat for Florida Democrats.”
Lamondin pointed to the new numbers as evidence his message is resonating and that Calatayud’s days in Tallahassee are likely numbered.
“Families in Miami are tired of paying more every month and getting less, and Tallahassee isn’t fixing it,” Lamondin said in a statement accompanying the poll’s release.
“And while my opponent attacks me with fabricated lies, we’re focused on the future and what’s possible. This race is tied, and I’m asking every voter to return their vote-by-mail ballot or make a plan to vote early or on Election Day now. Together, we can break the Republican supermajority, lower costs, and begin to build a better Florida.”
Impact’s poll included an oversample (50 additional respondents) of no-party voters and had a 4.9-percentage-point margin of error.
Lamondin has raised nearly $300,000 since switching to the SD 38 race in April, most of it through personal checks. He is the co-founder of environmental services company ecofi.
Last month, the Miami-Dade Democratic Party called out Calatayud for mislabeling Lamondin a democratic socialist in campaign advertisements — he isn’t — and for avoiding debates with him.
SD 38 spans southern Miami-Dade, including Cutler Bay, Key Biscayne, Palmetto Bay, Pinecrest, South Miami, parts of Coral Gables, Homestead and Miami, and unincorporated communities like Kendall and Westchester.
Registered Republicans in the district now outnumber Democrats by about 20,000 voters.
Florida Politics ranked the SD 38 contest seventh among 11 South Florida races to watch this Fall.
Election Day is Nov. 3.
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