N.Y. JETS (2-7) /(1-2 AWAY) vs. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (8-2) / (3-2 HOME)
VEGAS ODDS: NEW ENGLAND (-13) ~ TOTAL: (43)
NY JETS (#28) OFFENSE: (142R/144P) vs. NE PATRIOTS (#8) DEF. (79R-227P) NE PATRIOTS (#10) OFFENSE: (118R-241P) vs. NY JETS (#19) DEF. (138R/191P)
RED HOT PATRIOTS TAKE ON JETS ON SHOCKING 2 GAME WIN STREAK!
OK folks well if you ever heard the phrase “Taking one for the team” that would be me here writing this article about this Primetime TV game featuring the NY Jets. The TV Gods must be smiling knowing that with the Jets on a shocking 2 game win streak many folks might forget they just traded their 2 best Defensive players and have the worst HC/QB tandem in the NFL and have no business being on Primetime TV at all.
As for the Patriots, this folks is most definitely a deserving team of playing on Primetime TV, as they are by far the hottest team in the NFL coming in on a fantastic 7 game winning streak, including wins over the Bills and Buccaneers and the #2 Browns Defense during this win streak. I am never really excited to watch NFL games though with one team nearly a 2 TD favorite.
JETS OFFENSE AS BAD AS I’VE EVER SEEN AND NOW MISSING TOP WR!
Oftentimes we will have shocking scores and some teams will get a win when really the Offense did as poor as an Offense can possibly do. Yes the Jets won their second straight game last week but the Offense did less than even zero to help the winning cause. The Jets Offense gained only 169 total yards, went (3-11) on third downs, ran only 47 total plays and then even worse than all these 4 things QB Justin Fields passed the ball for a line of (6-11-54) and one of the 6 completions went for 42 yards to RB Hall. No other pass was completed for over 4 yards. That is not a typo. Fields was also sacked 3x and threw an interception for what may be the worst overall QB stats across board I’ve ever seen.
So how did they pull off a win and put a not too shabby 27 points on the scoreboard? Well in a span of just 36 seconds they returned a Kickoff for a TD and then after a quick 3 and out by the Browns Offense they returned the Punt for a 74 yard Return TD. Offense zero yards and the team somehow has 14 points on the scoreboard. The Browns #2 Defense had to watch from the sidelines as the Jets put 14 points up and it wasn’t against their #2 Defensive Unit at all.
AFTER SLOW START TO THE SEASON THE PATS REALLY CLICKING!
The Patriots opened with losses in 2 of its first 3 games but since then they simply seem to make whatever big play is needed by either side of the ball. The Pats Offense has scored 30+ points in 4 games and they haven’t scored less than 23 points in this impressive 7 game win streak. They don’t possess elite stats really in any category but the one that will win you Championships, stopping the Opponents Run game. The Patriots are #1 against the Run allowing just 79 rushing yards per game. The Pats are one of the best tackling teams in the NFL and are 3rd best in explosion run rate allowed (5.1%). Their Defense is #6 in yards after contact so you have to earn the yardage you are getting. They haven’t allowed any opposing RB to gain over 50 yards the entire season.
ONE TEAM HAS AN MVP QB & THE OTHER ONE OF THE 3 WORST QB’S!
The Patriots won the Draft lottery selecting QB Drake Maye and he’s far from fully polished just yet but he definitely has already sold me that he is going to be elite for the next decade as he is Josh Allen, Jr. and he is as tough as they come. Maye is hitting an incredible (57%) on deep passes over 20 yards. He is completing (72%) of his passes this season and is averaging (8.9) yards per pass, and is also a very legit running threat and he’s already gotten 283 rushing yards and 21 rushing first downs (most rushing first downs on the team). He does have 5 interceptions but he’s definitely not afraid to throw into tiny windows of coverage.
The Jets on the other hand have a QB with passing stats that look like he’s the Navy QB. He’s been sacked (25x) on just 203 pass dropbacks. That is a horrific 1 in 8x he’s being sacked as he seems to not realize you are allowed to throw the ball away. He has just 1 interception all season (came last week) but he rarely will throw a pass into tight coverage. It’s nearly impossible to complete only 6 passes in a full start and even more wild that the wide receivers only caught one pass the entire game last week.
He has full games of just 54, 46, 45 and even just 27 total passing yards. It’s nearly impossible to pull this off in a league where many Defenses play 7 yards back off the receivers at the line of scrimmage. Jets QB’s have been sacked 34x and 18x the past 4 weeks combined.
THE JETS ARE SETTING RECORDS FOR ALL WRONG REASONS!
We are now past the halfway point to this 2025 season and the Jets Defense has ZERO interceptions and just 1 fumble recovery. All but one of those games was with 2 studs CB S. Gardner and DT Q. Williams, both now traded and no longer on the team. The Jets dig themselves into a deep hole heading into Halftime (-78 points in first halves this season) and then when we see the great HC’s make solid adjustments at Halftime after seeing what was happening we see the Jets go out and score a joke 25 total points in the third quarter. Glenn is by far one of the 3 worst HC’s in the league. CLUELESS!
TOP TRENDS FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT PRIME TV GAME!
1). NY JETS: Last 6 on Road went “OVER” the Total. 2). PATRIOTS: Just (7-15) Straight up last 22 vs. Losing teams. 3). NY JETS: Only have 2 losses all season by over this 13 point spread here. 4). NY JETS/PATS: 5 of the last 6 meetings went “UNDER” the Total.
GARY’S “FINAL PASS”:
If you have read all my articles you know I am not a big fan of teams laying 2 Touchdowns in the NFL for many reasons and you can simply look at the Jets 2 Special Teams TD’s last week that would ensure you likely can’t cash your betting ticket. I won’t be in play here but as bad as the Jets have been this season they only lost by 2 points against two very strong teams in Denver and Tampa Bay and again they have only lost 2x all season by the 13 point spread here tonight. During the Patriots 7 game win streak their average margin of victory is (12.3) points, again under this 13 point spread.
About 4 weeks ago I posted the Patriots QB Drake Maye as one of my 2 “Stock Up” picks of the week as I saw on tape how he had finally learned how to set his feet in the pocket and it was putting his game close to elite level. He still is sacked a lot as he wants to always make a big play on every passing play and he’s thrown some bad interceptions but this kid is only in Year 2 and he’s a star right now. The Patriots Offense has been solid the past 7 weeks but they have turned the ball over 5x the past 3 games. Maye has a good streak and a bad one going as he’s passed for 2 TD’s in 5 straight games but he’s also thrown an Interception the past 3 games and been sacked a whopping 35x.
The Jets Defense isn’t terrible by any means and they actually are strong vs. QB’s who like to throw quickly (5th best) and when Maye has thrown passes in (2.5) seconds or less he is #1 in the league which means who wins this battle may be the major difference who covers the spread. The other key factor is the Jets O.L. simply can’t pass block (at record levels as well) and I can never find myself betting QB Fields at any point spread. The Jets will also now be without their only legit pass receiving weapon WR G. Wilson. It’s now almost all new receivers and RB B. Hall. The Pats stuff all RB’s so I can’t see how Hall has a big game rushing the rock here!
FINAL PREDICTION
I see less than a 5% chance of the Jets winning this game and right now the Patriots are clicking on all cylinders. The Defense is making huge strides and I’d expect lots more tackles for loss in this game vs. hapless Jets Offensive Line. The Jets are also on a short week and on road but this isn’t a long road trip so no huge gain to the Patriots side some teams get hosting these Thursday night games. The Jets have stayed within a TD in 7 of their 9 games which shows me they aren’t my Commanders. The last 2 Patriots wins are by a combined 6 points.
Seven of the Patriots 10 games so far have been close and decided by just a TD or less. The public is pounding the Patriots and the Under as of Wednesday night. I will sit on the sidelines again like I did Monday night as I see no real edge to betting either side or the total. The good thing is it’s almost impossible to have a worse Offensive game than we saw Monday between the Eagles and Packers.
Enjoy the game and always remember you do NOT have to bet every single game. And my TIP FOR THE WEEK is: “DO NOT BET PARLAYS”!!!
FINAL NOTE: You can get all of Gary’s Football Betting Magazine NFL Stat Pages free of charge at: GARYWINS.COM
Capital Sports Network will be your home for Let ’em Run Happy Hour
Let ’em Run is breaking down races at some new venues, and we will continue to expand our horizons with a variety of tracks, as we listen to what our viewers and readers have to say.
We are breaking down interesting races at Laurel Park and Turfway Park (a little nighttime action) that will be run on Saturday. Then we turn our attention to Aqueduct on Saturday, where there is The Remsen Gr2, a Kentucky Derby prep, and the signature race…The Cigar Mile.
Saturday Roundup Reminder
Be sure to tune into the Saturday “Let ’em Run Roundup” at 12:30 where we will bring even more insight after any scratches and other changes. So catch us this weekend on multiple streaming apps and social channels!!
Race 6 — 2:23 EST — The Maryland Juvenile — 125K — 7 Furlongs (Dirt) Some talented 2 y.o.’s line up for this race, at the always tricky distance for young runners at 7 furlongs. I am going to lean on #3 Sometime 9-2. Was ambitiously placed in the Iroquois against some of the best milers in the division. Breeding out of Take Charge Indy, who came in 1st at The Florida Derby and The Clark Handicap, so the talent is there. The #4 Biker Bailey 4-1 came out of a Md 20k, but took over the field and posted a 70 BSF. Could go to the front and not look back. Bet = $10 Ex Box 3,4 = $20
Saturday 12/6 — Turfway Park
Race 7 — 8:55 EST — The Boone County — 125K — 1 ¼ (Synthetic) Big field to choose from gives us plenty of options and value to boot. Jockey Fernando De La Cruz hops aboard #10 Swift Delivery 5-1, 1 of 2 Mark Casse entrants. A failed turf experiment, in between two Gr3 races on synthetic, make this horse the one to beat. Tough post, but De La Cruz can work out a trip and close on the field. The #1 Funtastic Again 5-1, is the horse for course and surface. Has ran in a steady diet of 6 Graded races last 6x, and now gets relief and a good post to go to the front. Jockey Gerado Corrales is very familiar with this runner.
Saturday 12/6 — Aqueduct (Races 7–11)
Race 7 — 2:11 EST — Alw 88K N1X — 1 Mile (Dirt)
Nice start to the late P5 for Let ’em Run, with a big field of 12 runners. Hard to look past #6 Life and Times 8-5. As a student of pace figures, this runner has an early pace figure of 142!! Out of Justify, and 2nd time out runners for that sire often improve…scary. Likely to have some company up front, but just too fast. Bet = P5 = 6 / All / All / 6 / 2 = $78 (based on current entries)
Race 8 — 2:39 EST — The NY Stallion Series — 500K (Fillies) — 7 Furlongs (Dirt)
Another full field of 2 y.o. fillies running at 7 furlongs. Going with #12 Daniella Marie 6-1, the entry for the “other Chad”… trainer Chad Summers, who is heating up and excellent with 2.y.o’s. Jockey Kendrick Caramouche stays on, and never really asked her in last, when she won by 9 ¼ lengths. Likely post time fave #10 Hot Currency 7-2, looking to improve with stud jockey Flavian Prat retaining the mount.
Race 9 — 3:08 EST — The Remsen Gr2 — 250K — 1 ⅛ (Dirt)
Kentucky Derby prep race, with 12 runners ready to go. The #11 Talkin 5-1 for trainer Danny Gargan is my top choice. Gargan is looking to hit the Derby trail again with a good one here, out of top Sire Good Magic. Runner beat Further Ado in Maiden, and that runner is labeled as a Derby favorite, so why not this guy. Jockey Kendrick Caramouche has options from a tough post, with interesting Brisnet early and late pace figures both high, and nearly the same (early 106 / late 102). Once again the Flavian Prat runner #2 Paladin 3-1 will get much deserved attention.
Race 10 — 3:37 EST — The Cigar Mile Gr2 — 500K — 1 Mile (Dirt)
Really can’t see anyone beating the fast and talented #6 Phileas Fogg 8-5. Two new wrinkles; with blinkers going on and jockey Joel Rosario taking the mount. Trainer Rodriguez Gustavo gave him a break pointing to this race, and said “it’s showtime“; when asked how he was doing!!
Two notes per Brisnet, lone E speed, and best pace to the 6 furlong distance, by a lot. So should have company early, but will then pull away to the wire.
Race 11 — The NY Stallion Series — 500K — 7 Furlongs
Once again the Big A putting out a big field for bettors. Trainer Butch Reid has #2 Parker Boone 8-5 ready to make some noise. Runner won by 12 ¼ 1st time out and was under wraps early. Naysayers will say “who did he beat”, but runners out of Solomini are often very good, very early. Will have other speed to deal with, but a ground saving post should seal the deal.
Final Notes
Stay tuned as we continue to grow, and tune in on Saturday for our 12:30 Podcast, with scratches and changes affecting our picks. And as the saying goes, Let ‘em Run.
NFL and COLLEGE FOOTBALL – THE sec How Sports Is Saving Broadcast TV: The Rise of Live Programming in a Streaming-Dominated Era
Escalating costs of NFL and MLB renewals, combined with cable decline and streaming fragmentation, are likely to make ESPN, Amazon, Apple, CBS, NBC, Fox, and YouTube more cautious about paying significantly higher college football rights fees. This financial pressure could slow down aggressive expansion and reduce the incentive to add ACC schools like Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina, and Miami, especially since their recent on-field performance has weakened their market value.
NFL & MLB renewals dominate budgets: The NFL’s Thanksgiving 2025 ratings shattered records, proving why networks will commit billions more to retain rights. MLB’s upcoming renewal adds another heavy obligation.
Streaming entrants already stretched: Amazon, Apple, and YouTube are investing heavily in NFL packages and global sports, limiting their appetite for additional college conference deals.
Cable volatility: Cord-cutting erodes traditional revenue streams, forcing networks to be more selective with rights investments.
College Conference Dynamics
Big Ten & SEC remain secure: Their multibillion-dollar deals ($8B+ for Big Ten, $3B for SEC) ensure stability and make them the only conferences positioned to expand further but only if there is more money to get from the media partners.
ACC locked in: ESPN extended its deal through 2036, giving the conference stability but limiting renegotiation. This makes poaching ACC schools less financially attractive unless ESPN adjusts terms.
Big 12 opportunism: Benefited from Pac-12’s collapse, but future expansion depends on whether networks see value in adding mid-tier programs.
Risks for ACC Schools
Performance matters: Florida State, Clemson, UNC, and Miami have struggled with subpar seasons, reducing their bargaining power. Networks are less likely to pay premiums for underperforming brands.
Revenue-sharing pressures: Following the House v. NCAA settlement, schools must share revenue with athletes, increasing the need for higher payouts. If networks won’t pay more, weaker conferences risk losing schools without replacement value.
Exposure vs. payout trade-off: Streaming platforms may prefer cherry-picking marquee matchups rather than funding entire conferences, further reducing incentives to add schools.
Likely Outcomes
Slower expansion: Networks will prioritize retaining NFL/MLB rights over funding new college realignment.
Selective poaching: Big Ten and SEC may still target top ACC schools if they rebound competitively, but only if the economics justify it.
ACC stability (for now): ESPN’s long-term deal through 2036 makes immediate exits difficult, though lawsuits from FSU and Clemson could test that structure.
Bottom Line
The financial strain of NFL and MLB renewals means networks are unlikely to pay dramatically more for college football in the near term. That reduces the incentive for conferences to expand aggressively, making another Pac-12-style collapse less likely in the short run — but leaving underperforming ACC schools vulnerable if their value doesn’t rebound.
The Breeders’ Cup starts today, and Let ’em Run is on site.
Rear View Mirror Segment Introduction
Let ’em Run continues to improve our product, and we are rolling out our “Rear View Mirror” segment in today’s edition for Sports Talk Florida, where we look back on races we broke down and see where we missed a possible pick and why, and also how we landed on a good pick. In life they say “the windshield is bigger than the rear view mirror so you look ahead, instead of back”. We think in handicapping, a good idea occasionally to look back!!
Friday 11/28 — Churchill Downs
Race 10 – The Mrs. Revere Stakes Looking back on our Podcast, John and I both landed on #4 Classic Q as an upset winner over big favorite #1 Lush Lips. The favorite proved her class and just nipped Classic Q. and a fast closing #10 Pretty Picture.
Race 11 – The Clark Stakes The “Rear View Mirror” told us we should have given a long look at the #9 Magnitude, who took it to the field with the highest U.S. Timeform early pace figure. John made a strong case for #5 Chunk of Gold, who had more company up front than expected. My pick #4 Gosger, had many Brisnet angles that made him strong in my book, but never fired. Keep an eye on this runner next out, odds will surely be worth a look.
Saturday 11/29 — Del Mar
Race 5 – The Seabiscuit Handicap In this race, the “Rear View Mirror” told us the only way (in our opinion) the #4 Call Sign Seven could have been used, was if you used a dart board, no offense to those who picked him!! John and I both landed on #3 Almanderes, who ran in 4th place, as the leader ran away from all in the field.
Race 7 – The Jimmy Durante Stakes Some redemption here as John laid out a Trifecta Key for $20 (4/1,5,6,8,9/1,5,6,8,9) and returned $61.50. Hey, a win is a win. I dropped anchor on the #5 La Ville Lumiere, a long shot at 8-1, with a lot of Brisnet angles to work with. She ran a nice race, but only managed a 3rd place finish.
Race 9 – The Hollywood Stakes Using the “Rear View Mirror”, a case could have been made for winner #4 Salamis. Leading rider Umberto Rispoli jumped aboard for trainer Chad Brown. In the last race he was a tough load, and closed, but too late. He ran back to the 2 back race and took the top spot, not an impossible pick with a closer look.
Looking Ahead
Moving forward, Let’emRun is looking to run multiple Podcasts each week in the New Year. Coming up on Friday 12/5/25 Happy Hour at 3PM, we will dive into 2 races being run on Saturday 12/6/25… Race 6 at Laurel Park, The Maryland Juvenile. We will then jump over to Race 7 at Turfway Park, The Boone County. Some interesting races, at some interesting venues.
Upcoming Coverage
On Saturday 12/6/25, we will get back to East Coast racing at Aqueduct, where we will cover Races 7 thru 11, including Race 9 The Remsen Stakes (Kentucky Derby Prep), and Race 10, The Cigar Mile. Two big races each year at the Big A, so be sure to tune in for both shows, and as always Let ’em Run.
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