This game might be something similar to the Peach Bowl back in 2022. Remember when Georgia and Ohio State played in that instant classic that ended as the clock struck midnight? After what happened in Los Angeles, roughly 10 days later, left everyone realizing the National Championship had been played in Atlanta. I think that may be a road we are headed down once again, with a clash of titans in Atlanta (Yes, Indiana is a titan). So who wins and how do they do it?
SPORTS TALK GEORGIA
SPORTS TALK FLORIDA
Notes on Oregon
I’m curious to see what form of Dan Lanning we get Friday night. For all of his success he hasn’t been fantastic in big games. He struggled to close out the season in his first year losing 2 of his last 3 when the CFP was in sight. In 2023 he couldn’t beat Washington and last year after beating Ohio State and winning the BIG 10 he got ran out of Pasadena by Ohio State. I’m not saying that he can’t win these games or hasn’t won games like these in the past but his track record hasn’t been fantastic in these moments.
Oregon is thin at running back, with reports coming out that they have moved two defenders to offense to help with the lack of depth at that position. They have 4 running backs out of this game, and Noah Whittington was a late add to the injury report as questionable. Aside from Whittington, the backs available for the Ducks on Friday are Dierre Hill Jr. and Jay Harris (who is transferring). Oregon dealt with injuries all year at receiver, and just when that room starts to get healthy, their running backs start to drop like flies.
All that said, there are still two things I believe/know to be true. The first is that it is hard to beat a good team twice. I know this is cliché and coach speak, but it is absolutely true. The second is, despite all of the injuries Oregon has in its backfield, this is still the best offense that Indiana has seen in a while. The health of that receiver room is big, and they still have probably the best tight end in the country in Kenyon Sadiq. Oh yeah, and their defense is pretty good too.
Notes on Indiana
Everyone has seemingly been waiting for Indiana to be proven fraudulent. To be honest, I am not quite sure why. Alabama was a popular upset pick in the Rose Bowl, and Indiana is now the only team in the 12-team format to not lose after having a bye (teams with a bye in the 12-team CFP format are 1-7). No one picked them against Ohio State (myself included). Oregon was expected to blow them out in Eugene earlier this year. None of that happened, though, and Curt Cignetti and his staff just keep chugging along.
On the Injury front, Indiana has no surprises, unlike Oregon, which had in their backfield. Their kickoff specialist is listed as doubtful, but I think they’ll probably be able to survive that. So Indiana has won the injury report at least. Compared to their last matchup with Oregon, they have had a couple of in-season injuries, specifically along the D-line. So that will be something to watch for tonight. Does that D-line do as good a job against the Oregon O-line as they did in Eugene?
Prediction + Betting Lines
I think this game comes down to the coaching staff more than anything else. These rosters from a talent standpoint are extremely close (although it may not look like it on paper). I would say Oregon definitely drew the short end of the stick when it comes to injuries. I do hope that will not play a factor in the game tonight. The last thing I want to see is an Oregon DB taking a handoff in a CFP Semi-Final game because we cannot get the college football calendar right. (Oregon has multiple running backs in the portal, along with their injuries)
When you look at the two coaching staffs, Indiana’s has been the best in the country all year, and when you pair that with the fact that Tosh Lupoi and Will Stein have been working double duty this week, I definitely give the edge to Indiana on the sidelines and on the field.
Prediction: Give me the Hoo-Hoo-Hoo-Hoosiers
Betting: Indiana -3, Over/Under is 50.5
