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OpenAI faces an ‘increasingly fragile moat,’ JPMorgan says, as Sam Altman braces for ‘OS war’ against Google, Apple and other Silicon Valley titans

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OpenAI is the world’s third-most-valuable private company—valued at $300 billion in its latest fundraise in March 2025, and it’s “marching to the beat of its own disruption drum,” according to JPMorgan. At the same time, the bank warns, the risks to the company’s business model are “broadening.”

The investment bank took the rare step of initiating coverage on the artificial intelligence (AI) powerhouse, whose ChatGPT products have transformed digital interactions, even though it’s not a publicly listed company. Bloomberg reported that the coverage will start with sectors such as AI and software, where private firms such as OpenAI play major and dynamic roles, citing a person familiar with the matter. That is in and of itself interesting, and speaks to the massive role that private credit has come to play in tech and finance, as JPMorgan’s own CEO Jamie Dimon often discusses. But this particular note also reached several dramatic, sometimes contradictory conclusions.

What JPMorgan calls its “early advantage, unrivaled brand, and consumer focus” could help it unlock a total addressable market of $700 billion or more by 2030, according to the research note, authored by the analysts Brenda Duverce and Lula Sheena. The note mainly looks at OpenAI’s challenges in the marketplace and its future value as an investing prospect, as a research note should, but it makes for fascinating reading in light of OpenAI’s internal strategy memo for 2025-26, which came to light as a court document that is part of an ongoing Google antitrust case.

In the memo, OpenAI execs write that they want ChatGPT to be “your interface to the internet.” JPMorgan puts it similarly, writing that OpenAI’s management has a vision of “transforming the way humans interact with machines.” OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, the billionaire who decided to turn ChatGPT loose onto the world, has reportedly said this could be worth $1 trillion in market capitalization when OpenAI eventually goes public after some sort of blockbuster initial public offering. This renders the JPMorgan research interesting in how it spotlights the challenges in the way of ChatGPT truly becoming the internet’s interface.

JPMorgan finds OpenAI’s “frontier model innovation” transforming into an “increasingly fragile moat.” Duverce and Sheena write about the context facing the AI giant, of a “window of risks” growing in size and scope. They forecast “rising talent and litigation risks, as well as strategic uncertainty related to OpenAI’s unconventional organizational structure.” In short, the vision is clear to see, but the reality of the situation just outside OpenAI’s window is rather more opaque.

From quiet lab to global powerhouse

Founded in 2015, OpenAI’s mission is ambitious: to ensure that artificial general intelligence (AGI)—AI systems as smart as humans across the vast majority of cognitive tasks people perform—come to benefit all of humanity. That ethos propelled OpenAI into the spotlight with the revolutionary launch if its consumer-facing ChatGPT chatbot in late 2022, with several follow-on technical breakthroughs combining with enthusiastic backing from Microsoft and A-list Silicon Valley investment firms to create a massively powerful and influential private AI giant.

Today, OpenAI has a staggering reach: an estimated 800 million to 1 billion weekly active users on ChatGPT as of April 2025, global availability in over 180 countries and 57 languages, and more than 3 million paying business customers as of June, as well as a robust developer ecosystem. Famously, ChatGPT’s viral release on November 30, 2022, led to a reach of 100 million users in a record two months, the fastest-growing app in history until Meta’s Threads launch in July 2023.

OpenAI has massive reach.

JPMorgan

OpenAI’s funding reflects its outsized ambitions: over $63 billion raised since inception, including a record $40 billion tranche led by SoftBank in March 2025, vaulting its valuation to $300 billion—the third highest among private tech firms globally, just behind SpaceX and ByteDance.

Competitive moats under threat

OpenAI’s early advantage was its viral consumer adoption and brand strength, but it is not heavily diversified, with roughly 75% of its revenue coming from consumer subscriptions. Moves are under way to remedy this, with the launch of AI agents that can perform tasks for a user across the internet. These include the software engineering-focused Codex and the multipurpose ChatGPT agent, perhaps signaling a move towards agents that can serve as “autonomous digital workers” for enterprise customers. (OpenAi rival Anthropic, by contrast, derives most of its revenues from enterprise customers.) JPMorgan projects that agents could comprise a quarter of OpenAI’s revenue within five years.

OpenAI’s strategy memo confirms that the company never wanted ChatGPT to settle into the by-now well-honed grooves of the software-as-a-service (SaaS) sector. Instead, OpenAI appears to regard this revenue “almost as a constraint,” a step toward their much grander battle for control over user interaction itself. OpenAI’s leadership writes of platform giants Apple, Google, and Microsoft as existential threats, since they could easily block ChatGPT or “push their own AIs without giving users fair alternatives.” JPMorgan’s analysis rhymes again, noting that OpenAI is eyeing digital advertising and hiring consultant-like “forward deployed engineers,” whose job is to increase enterprise adoption. This lays the groundwork for a direct assault on the business models of the platforms.

But the bank also says it’s no sure thing that OpenAI will succeed in this regard. Simply put, JPMorgan writes, it’s a crowded space, with “leading model developers constantly jostling for pole position.” The different types of generative AI models released over the past 18 months have expanded at what JPMorgan considers an “exceptional pace,” noting that Google’s Gemini 2.5 model and China’s DeepSeek R1 have matched—or surpassed—OpenAI on benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and cost-efficiency. Price wars have ensued: OpenAI slashed o3 model prices by 80% after Gemini’s Pro model leapfrogged it in user rankings, illustrating how differentiation in core models is getting harder to preserve. Of course, the fact that OpenAI is in increasingly direct competition with some of the most valuable companies in the history of the world, let alone Silicon Valley, is a remarkable achievement, and OpenAI could be seen as encroaching on their moats, not the other way around.

The enterprise sector is especially challenging. Large customers increasingly seek best-in-class, domain-specific models or “AI portfolios” sourced from rival providers such as Anthropic, xAI, Google, and specialized startups. Security and data privacy requirements, as well as cost, drive enterprises to avoid single-provider lock-in.

OpenAI’s developer ecosystem—a major early strength—remains sticky due to tooling and documentation, yet developers are highly cost-sensitive and more willing to switch as alternatives proliferate.

Infrastructure and partnership crossroads

A defining challenge for OpenAI and its peers is building out the massive infrastructure needed to train and deploy advanced models. Its recently announced Stargate project, a $500 billion joint venture with partners including SoftBank and Oracle, aims to meet soaring demand for compute and power. Data center constraints, power shortages, and a global talent war threaten to slow progress.

The Microsoft partnership—once a source of exclusive cloud access and capital—has become “complicated,” JPMorgan said. Revenue- and profit-sharing terms are being renegotiated as OpenAI seeks more autonomy. High-profile failed acquisitions, such as the loss of code startup Windsurf to Google, suggest these same governance and partnership frictions remain unresolved, the bank added.

OpenAI’s transition from a capped-profit model to a Public Benefit Corporation (PBC) is still under way. With billions in new funds contingent on this restructuring, any delay could ripple through its expansion plans. Ongoing legal battles—especially over training data and copyright—could raise costs or limit access to essential resources if outcomes go against OpenAI’s practices.

JPMorgan’s assessment again agrees with OpenAI’s own internal strategy memo, which frames the competitive landscape as an “OS war,” or battle over operating systems, rather than an arms race between chatbots. Today, tech’s biggest players control core interfaces (Apple: iOS; Google: Android/Chrome; Microsoft: Windows), and the memo’s underlying anxiety is clear: despite OpenAI’s substantial mindshare, it lacks a hardware or operating system anchor, making it vulnerable to being boxed out by entrenched platform owners.

Despite formidable risks, J.P. Morgan’s research frames OpenAI as the best-capitalized and brand-recognized contender in the AI arena. With a projected $174 billion in revenue by 2030, success will hinge on its ability to monetize new products, cement customer trust, outpace rivals on technical and operational fronts, and navigate the evolving regulatory landscape. The race is on.

OpenAI did not respond to a request for comment.

For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing. 



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A Thanksgiving dealmaking sprint helped Netflix win Warner Bros.

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The Netflix Inc. plans that clinched the deal for Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. started to shape up around Thanksgiving. 

deadline was looming: Warner Bros. had asked bidders, which also included Paramount Skydance Corp. and Comcast Corp., to have their latest proposals and contracts in by the Monday after the holiday, following a round about a week earlier. The suitors were told to put their best foot forward.

While most Americans were watching football and feasting on turkey, Netflix executives and advisers hunkered down to finalize a binding offer and a $59 billion bridge loan from banks, one of the biggest of its kind. That gave the streaming company the ammunition to make a mostly cash-and-stock bid that helped it prevail over Comcast and David Ellison’s Paramount, according to people familiar with the matter.

The resulting $72 billion deal, announced Friday, is set to bring about a seismic shift in the entertainment business — if it can survive intense regulatory scrutiny and a potential fight from Paramount. This account of Netflix’s surprise victory in the biggest M&A auction of the year is based on interviews with half a dozen people involved in negotiations. They asked not to be identified because the details are confidential.

The sales process had kicked off with several unsolicited bids from Paramount Skydance, itself a newly formed company after a merger this year orchestrated by Ellison. He’s now the studio’s chief executive officer and controlling shareholder, with backing from his father, Oracle Corp. billionaire Larry Ellison. 

Paramount’s early move gave it a head start in the bidding process weeks before other would-be buyers got access to information. But the post-Thanksgiving deadline for second-round bids became a turning point by giving Netflix time to catch up and assemble the documents it needed, some of the people said. And since the streaming giant was bred in the fast-paced ethos of Silicon Valley, it could move quickly. 

When the binding bids arrived that Monday, Netflix’s offer emerged as superior, the people said.

One issue was the Warner Bros. camp had doubts about how Paramount would pay for the company, which owns sprawling Hollywood studios, the HBO network and a vast film and TV library. Paramount’s offer included financing from Apollo Global Management Inc. and several Middle Eastern funds, and it had conveyed that its bid was fully backstopped by the Ellisons. Still, Warner Bros. executives were privately concerned about the certainty of the financing, people familiar with the matter said.

Representatives for Netflix and Warner Bros. declined to comment.

‘Noble’ vs ‘Prince’

In the weeks leading up to the finale, Warner Bros. advisers set up war rooms at various hotels in midtown Manhattan. A core group holed up at the Loews Regency, which has long been a convening spot for the city’s movers and shakers.

Inside Warner Bros., the situation was known as “Project Sterling.” The company called itself by the code name “Wonder.” The team referred to Netflix as “Noble,” while Paramount was “Prince” and Comcast was “Charm.”

At Netflix, Chief Financial Officer Spencer Neumann served as the point man while corporate development head Devorah Bertucci organized people day-to-day. Chief Legal Officer David Hyman and Spencer Wang, vice president of finance, investor relations and corporate development, also were key architects, with all of them reporting into co-CEOs Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters.

The contours of the deal were shaped in a way befitting of a tech company: mostly over video chat or phone rather than in person. Virtual war rooms were set up. While strategizing or discussing diligence on Zoom, participants would raise virtual hands or make suggestions over chat rather than unmuting and slowing down the meeting. Google Docs were used to review and edit documents together in real time.

Talks heated up this week, with Warner Bros. advisers in continuous dialogue with the bidders and negotiating contract language and value. Comcast said it would merge its NBCUniversal division with Warner Bros. Paramount offered to more than double its proposed breakup fee to $5 billion to sweeten its deal and outshine rivals. 

In the end, Warner Bros. determined Netflix had the best offer and the company was the most flexible on key terms. On Wednesday, Paramount lobbed an aggressively worded letter to Warner Bros. board saying the sales process was “tainted.” It also identified what it saw as regulatory risks in the Netflix proposal, one sign that a winning outcome was slipping away for Paramount. 

Netflix found out Thursday evening New York time that it had won. Executives and advisers were assembled on a video call when they got the official word, sparking a moment of jubilation before everyone snapped into action. By 10:25 p.m., Bloomberg News broke the news that a deal was imminent. 

Even Sarandos made it sound like the ending was a twist on a conference call with investors. “I know some of you are surprised that we’re making this acquisition, and I certainly understand why,” he said. “Over the years, we have been known to be builders, not buyers.”

Regardless of whether Paramount reemerges to try and top the bid, Netflix will have work ahead of it. It has agreed to pay a $5.8 billion breakup fee to Warner Bros. if the transaction fails on regulatory grounds. The company also has to digest its largest acquisition ever.

“It’s going to be a lot of hard work,” co-CEO Peters said on the conference call. “We’re not experts at doing large-scale M&A, but we’ve done a lot of things historically that we didn’t know how to do.”



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‘Its own research shows they encourage addiction’: Highest court in Mass. hears case about Instagram, Facebook effect on kids

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Massachusetts’ highest court heard oral arguments Friday in the state’s lawsuit arguing that Meta designed features on Facebook and Instagram to make them addictive to young users.

The lawsuit, filed in 2024 by Attorney General Andrea Campbell, alleges that Meta did this to make a profit and that its actions affected hundreds of thousands of teenagers in Massachusetts who use the social media platforms.

“We are making claims based only on the tools that Meta has developed because its own research shows they encourage addiction to the platform in a variety of ways,” said State Solicitor David Kravitz, adding that the state’s claim has nothing to do the company’s algorithms or failure to moderate content.

Meta said Friday that it strongly disagrees with the allegations and is “confident the evidence will show our longstanding commitment to supporting young people.” Its attorney, Mark Mosier, argued in court that the lawsuit “would impose liabilities for performing traditional publishing functions” and that its actions are protected by the First Amendment.

“The Commonwealth would have a better chance of getting around the First Amendment if they alleged that the speech was false or fraudulent,” Mosier said. “But when they acknowledge that its truthful that brings it in the heart of the First Amendment.”

Several of the judges, though, seem to more concerned about Meta’s functions such as notifications than the content on its platforms.

“I didn’t understand the claims to be that Meta is relaying false information vis-a-vis the notifications but that it has created an algorithm of incessant notifications … designed so as to feed into the fear of missing out, fomo, that teenagers generally have,” Justice Dalila Wendland said. “That is the basis of the claim.”

Justice Scott Kafker challenged the notion that this was all about a choose to publish certain information by Meta.

“It’s not how to publish but how to attract you to the information,” he said. “It’s about how to attract the eyeballs. It’s indifferent the content, right. It doesn’t care if it’s Thomas Paine’s ‘Common Sense’ or nonsense. It’s totally focused on getting you to look at it.”

Meta is facing federal and state lawsuits claiming it knowingly designed features — such as constant notifications and the ability to scroll endlessly — that addict children.

In 2023, 33 states filed a joint lawsuit against the Menlo Park, California-based tech giant claiming that Meta routinely collects data on children under 13 without their parents’ consent, in violation of federal law. In addition, states including Massachusetts filed their own lawsuits in state courts over addictive features and other harms to children.

Newspaper reports, first by The Wall Street Journal in the fall of 2021, found that the company knew about the harms Instagram can cause teenagers — especially teen girls — when it comes to mental health and body image issues. One internal study cited 13.5% of teen girls saying Instagram makes thoughts of suicide worse and 17% of teen girls saying it makes eating disorders worse.

Critics say Meta hasn’t done enough to address concerns about teen safety and mental health on its platforms. A report from former employee and whistleblower Arturo Bejar and four nonprofit groups this year said Meta has chosen not to take “real steps” to address safety concerns, “opting instead for splashy headlines about new tools for parents and Instagram Teen Accounts for underage users.”

Meta said the report misrepresented its efforts on teen safety.

___

Associated Press reporter Barbara Ortutay in Oakland, California, contributed to this report.



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Quant who said passive era is ‘worse than Marxism’ doubles down

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Inigo Fraser Jenkins once warned that passive investing was worse for society than Marxism. Now he says even that provocative framing may prove too generous.

In his latest note, the AllianceBernstein strategist argues that the trillions of dollars pouring into index funds aren’t just tracking markets — they are distorting them. Big Tech’s dominance, he says, has been amplified by passive flows that reward size over substance. Investors are funding incumbents by default, steering more capital to the biggest names simply because they already dominate benchmarks.

He calls it a “dystopian symbiosis”: a feedback loop between index funds and platform giants like Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Nvidia Corp. that concentrates power, stifles competition, and gives the illusion of safety. Unlike earlier market cycles driven by fundamentals or active conviction, today’s flows are automatic, often indifferent to risk.

Fraser Jenkins is hardly alone in sounding the alarm. But his latest critique has reignited a debate that’s grown harder to ignore. Just 10 companies now account for more than a third of the S&P 500’s value, with tech names driving an outsize share of 2025’s gains.

“Platform companies and a lack of active capital allocation both imply a less effective form of capitalism with diminished competition,” he wrote in a Friday note. “A concentrated market and high proportion of flows into cap weighted ‘passive’ indices leads to greater risks should recent trends reverse.” 

While the emergence of behemoth companies might be reflective of more effective uses of technology, it could also be the result of failures of anti-trust policies, among other things, he argues. Artificial intelligence might intensify these issues and could lead to even greater concentrations of power among firms. 

His note, titled “The Dystopian Symbiosis: Passive Investing and Platform Capitalism,” is formatted as a fictional dialog between three people who debate the topic. One of the characters goes as far as to argue that the present situation requires an active policy intervention — drawing comparisons to the breakup of Standard Oil at the start of the 20th century — to restore competition.

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In a provocative note titled “The Silent Road to Serfdom: Why Passive Investing is Worse Than Marxism” and written nearly a decade ago, Fraser Jenkins argued that the rise of index-tracking investing would lead to greater stock correlations, which would impede “the efficient allocation of capital.” His employer, AllianceBernstein, has continued to launch ETFs since the famous research was published, though its launches have been actively managed. 

Other active managers have presented similar viewpoints — managers at Apollo Global Management last year said the hidden costs of the passive-investing juggernaut included higher volatility and lower liquidity. 

There have been strong rebuttals to the critique: a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. study showed the role of fundamentals remains an all-powerful driver for stock valuations; Citigroup Inc. found that active managers themselves exert a far bigger influence than their passive rivals on a stock’s performance relative to its industry.

“ETFs don’t ruin capitalism, they exemplify it,” said Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg Intelligence’s senior ETF analyst. “The competition and innovation are through the roof. That is capitalism in its finest form and the winner in that is the investor.”

Since Fraser Jenkins’s “Marxism” note, the passive juggernaut has only grown. Index-tracking ETFs, which have grown in popularity thanks to their ease of trading and relatively cheaper management fees, are often cited as one of the primary culprits in this debate. The segment has raked in $842 billion so far this year, compared with the $438 billion hauled in by actively managed funds, even as there are more active products than there are passive ones, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Of the more than $13 trillion that’s in ETFs overall, $11.8 trillion is parked in passive vehicles. The majority of ETF ownership is concentrated in low-cost index funds that have significantly reduced the cost for investors to access financial markets. 

In Fraser Jenkins’s new note, one of his fictitious characters ask another what the “dystopian symbiosis” implies for investors. 

“The passive index is riskier than it has been in the past,” the character answers. “The scale of the flows that have been disproportionately into passive cap-weighted funds with a high exposure to the mega cap companies implies the risk of a significant negative wealth effect if there is an upset to expectations for those large companies.”



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