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OPEC+ sticks with plan to keep oil flow steady amid turmoil

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OPEC+ stuck with plans to pause supply increases in the first quarter, as global markets face a surplus and the group awaits clarity on whether the shock US capture of Venezuela leader Nicolas Maduro will impact supplies.

Key members led by Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed on Sunday to keep production levels steady through the end of March, once again ratifying a decision first made in November to suspend last year’s sequence of swift increases. Delegates said they didn’t discuss Venezuela during the 10-minute video conference, and that it’s premature to gauge how to respond to the unfolding situation.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners confront an array of challenges, with crude prices near the lowest in four years and widespread forecasts that plentiful supplies and subdued demand could unleash a record glut. This weekend’s seismic upheaval in member nation Venezuela is the latest in a series of geopolitical pressure points spanning from Russia to Yemen that are also clouding the outlook. 

“In an environment this fragile, OPEC+ is choosing caution, preserving flexibility rather than introducing new uncertainty into an already volatile market,” said Jorge Leon, an analyst at consultant Rystad Energy AS. “The political transition in Venezuela adds another major layer of uncertainty.”

While President Donald Trump said that US oil companies will spend billions of dollars to rebuild Venezuela’s crumbling energy infrastructure following the operation to seize Maduro, energy analysts aren’t expecting an immediate, significant change to the country’s exports. Trump said that sanctions on Venezuelan crude will remain in place.

READ: Oil Market May Absorb Maduro Shock as Global Supplies Swell (1)

Caracas may hold the world’s biggest oil reserves, but years of under—investment, mismanagement and international isolation have diminished the country to a fraction of its former standing. 

Venezuela currently pumps about 800,000 barrels of oil a day, roughly a third of what it produced a decade ago and under 1% of global supplies. Washington’s recent seizure and pursuit of tankers while it pressured Maduro’s regime helped curb output in the country’s critical Orinoco Belt by 25%.

Production could rise by about 150,000 barrels a day within a few months if sanctions are lifted, but getting back to 2 million barrels a day or higher would require “massive reforms” and large investments from international oil companies, according to consultants at Kpler. 

Other geopolitical threats afflicting OPEC+ nations continue to simmer. 

Tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, two of the coalition’s core Middle East heavyweights, have flared over their support for opposing factions in the conflict in Yemen. Last week a Saudi-led coalition carried out airstrikes against a rival group supported by the UAE.

Washington has sanctioned top producers in Russia following the invasion of Ukraine, a conflict that’s also taking a toll on flows from fellow OPEC+ producer, Kazakhstan. On Friday, Trump pledged to “rescue” protesters in Iran, which has been rocked by a wave of demonstrations after the local currency collapsed to a record low.

Nonetheless, world markets remain comfortably supplied for now. The International Energy Agency in Paris forecasts a record oil surplus in 2026 as supplies swell from both OPEC+ and its competitors while demand growth slows. Trading giant Trafigura Group says the market may confront a “super glut.”

READ: The World Is Awash in Oil and Prices Are Poised to Keep Falling

Brent futures settled just under $61 a barrel on Friday, having slumped 18% last year in their biggest annual drop since the 2020 pandemic. Production in the US, Guyana, Brazil and Canada continues to climb while demand in top consumers like China has slowed.

In April, Riyadh and its partners stunned crude traders by rapidly restarting production idled since 2023 despite signs that world markets were comfortably supplied. Several delegates said the move was intended to claw back market share ceded in recent years to rivals like American shale drillers. 

Before the latest pause, OPEC+ had formally agreed to restore about two-thirds of 3.85 million barrels a day of output halted since 2023, leaving about 1.2 million barrels-a-day of these tranches left to restart. However, the actual volumes added have been smaller than advertised as some countries physically struggle to increase, and others atone for earlier overproduction.

The eight OPEC+ members involved in bringing this production back will hold another monthly video conference on Feb. 1.



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The ‘Holy Grail of comic books’ once owned by Nicolas Cage sells at auction for a record $15 million

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A rare copy of the comic book that introduced the world to Superman and also was once stolen from the home of actor Nicolas Cage has been sold for a record $15 million.

The private deal for “Action Comics No. 1” was announced Friday. It eclipses the previous record price for a comic book, set last November when a copy of “Superman No. 1″ was at sold at auction for $9.12 million.

The Action Comics sale was negotiated by Manhattan-based Metropolis Collectibles/Comic Connect, which said the comic book’s owner and the buyer wished to remain anonymous.

The comic — which sold for 10 cents when it came out in 1938 — was an anthology of tales about mostly now little-known characters. But over a few panels, it told the origin story of Superman’s birth on a dying planet, his journey to Earth and his decision as an adult to “turn his titanic strength into channels that would benefit mankind.”

Its publication marked the beginning of the superhero genre. About 100 copies of Action Comics No. 1 are known to exist, according to Metropolis Collectibles/Comic Connect President Vincent Zurzolo.

“This is among the Holy Grail of comic books. Without Superman and his popularity, there would be no Batman or other superhero comic book legends,” Zurzolo said. “It’s importance in the comic book community shows with his deal, as it obliterates the previous record,” Zurzolo said.

The comic book was stolen from Cage’s Los Angeles home in 2000 but was recovered in 2011 when it was found by a man who had purchased the contents of an old storage locker in southern California. It eventually was returned to Cage, who had bought it in 1996 for $150,000. Six months after it was returned to him, he sold it at auction for $2.2 million.

Stephen Fishler, CEO of Metropolis Collectibles/Comic Connect, said the theft eventually played a big role in boosting the comic’s value.

“During that 11-year period (it was missing), it skyrocketed in value.,” Fishler said “The thief made Nicolas Cage a lot of money by stealing it.”

Fishler compared it to the theft of Mona Lisa, which was stolen from the Louvre museum in Paris in 1911.

“It was kept under the thief’s bed for two years,” Fishler noted. “The recovery of the painting made the Mona Lisa go from being just a great Da Vinci painting to a world icon — and that’s what Action No. 1 is — an icon of American pop culture.”



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Trump order says Venezuelan oil money is being held by US for ‘governmental and diplomatic purposes’

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President Donald Trump’s new executive order on Venezuelan oil revenue is meant to ensure that the money remains protected from being used in judicial proceedings.

The executive order, made public on Saturday, says that if the funds were to be seized for such use, it could “undermine critical U.S. efforts to ensure economic and political stability in Venezuela.”

The order comes amid caution from top oil company executives that the tumult and instability in Venezuela could make the country less attractive for private investment and rebuilding.

“If we look at the commercial constructs and frameworks in place today in Venezuela, today it’s uninvestable,” said Darren Woods, CEO of ExxonMobil, the largest U.S. oil company, during a meeting convened by Trump with oil executives on Friday.

During the session, Trump tried to assuage the concerns of the oil companies and said the executives would be dealing directly with the U.S., rather than the Venezuelan government.

Venezuela has a history of state asset seizures, ongoing U.S. sanctions and decades of political uncertainty.

Getting U.S. oil companies to invest in Venezuela and help rebuild the country’s infrastructure is a top priority of the Trump administration after the dramatic capture of now-deposed leader Nicolás Maduro.

The White House is framing the effort to “run” Venezuela in economic terms, and Trump has seized tankers carrying Venezuelan oil, has said the U.S. is taking over the sales of 30 million to 50 million barrels of previously sanctioned Venezuelan crude, and plans to control sales worldwide indefinitely.

“I love the Venezuelan people, and am already making Venezuela rich and safe again,” Trump, who is currently in southern Florida, wrote on his social media site on Saturday. “Congratulations and thank you to all of those people who are making this possible!!!”

The order says the oil revenue is property of Venezuela that is being held by the United States for “governmental and diplomatic purposes” and not subject to private claims.

Its legal underpinnings are the National Emergencies Act and the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Trump, in the order, says the possibility that the oil revenues could be caught up in judicial proceedings constitutes an “unusual and extraordinary threat” to the U.S.



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As U.S. debt soars past $38 trillion, corporate bond flood is a growing threat to Treasury supply

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As the Treasury Department looks to ensure investors continue absorbing the fresh supply of debt it must sell, growing competition from companies issuing their own bonds could send rates higher, according to Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok.

In a note on Saturday, he pointed out that Wall Street estimates for the volume of investment grade debt that’s on the way this year reach as high as $2.25 trillion.

That’s as the AI boom increasingly sends companies, including hyperscalers and adjacent firms, to the bond market to fund massive investments in data centers and other infrastructure.

“The significant increase in hyperscaler issuance raises questions about who will be the marginal buyer of IG paper,” Slok said. “Will it come from Treasury purchases and hence put upward pressure on the level of rates? Or might it come from mortgage purchases, putting upward pressure on mortgage spreads?”

With U.S. debt topping $38 trillion, the federal government has already borrowed $601 billion in the first three months of the 2026 fiscal year, which began in October 2025, according to the latest data from the Congressional Budget Office.

That’s $110 billion less than the deficit during the same period a year earlier as tariffs helped revenue outpace spending. But the Supreme Court could strike down President Donald Trump’s global tariffs soon, and this year’s tax season should see a surge of refunds to account for new tax cuts under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

Meanwhile, Trump has vowed to boost defense spending to $1.5 trillion a year from $1 trillion, threatening to further deepen federal budget deficits.

And despite the Federal Reserve’s series of rate cuts this past autumn, Treasury yields remain about where they were in early September, suggesting the government will not see much relief on debt-servicing costs that are also contributing to the overall tally of red ink.

“The bottom line is that the volume of fixed-income products coming to market this year is significant and is likely to put upward pressure on rates and credit spreads as we go through 2026,” Slok said.

Apollo

To make sure there’s sufficient demand among bond investors, Treasury yields must remain attractive relative to the competition. Failure to draw enough investors raises the risk of so-called fiscal dominance, or when a central bank must step into to finance widening deficits.

That’s what former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned of last weekend, during a panel hosted by the American Economic Association.

“The preconditions for fiscal dominance are clearly strengthening,” she said, noting debt is on a steep upward trajectory toward 150% of GDP over the next three decades.

At the same time, he holders of U.S. debt have shifted drastically over the past decade, tilting more toward profit-driven private investors and away from foreign governments that are less sensitive to prices.

That threatens to turn the U.S. financial system more fragile in times of market stress, according to Geng Ngarmboonanant, a managing director at JPMorgan and former deputy chief of staff to Yellen during her tenure at Treasury.

Foreign governments accounted for more than 40% of Treasury bond holdings in the early 2010s, up from just over 10% in the mid-1990s, he wrote in a New York Times op-ed last month. This reliable bloc of investors allowed the U.S. to borrow vast sums at artificially low rates.

“Those easy times are over,” he warned. “Foreign governments now make up less than 15% of the overall Treasury market.”



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