​The weak state of UK retail was shown on Friday by the Office for National Statistics’ figures covering both the three months to October and the latest month’s sales alone.

In the first case the volume of goods bought for the quarter rose 1.1% compared to the previous quarter. Clothing store sales rounded off a strong performance in those three months, peaking in September, with a total rise of 3.1% for the quarter.

But October itself saw sales going into reverse. Volumes are estimated to have fallen by 1.1% in October, the ONS said, following rises in September and August. This was the first monthly fall since May 2025. Supermarkets, clothing, and mail order retailers fell in October, which some retailers attributed to consumers delaying their spending in the lead up to Black Friday. Clothing was down 1.5%.

Analysts blamed a mix of the weather and consumer jitters about the forthcoming Budget, but conceded that clothing in particular is likely to see a spurt linked to Black Friday so maybe October’s drop was just a pause rather than the brakes being applied more permanently.

Jacqui Baker, head of retail at RSM UK and chair of ICAEW’s Retail Group, said: “The positive streak of retail sales growth came to a halt in October, as Budget jitters took hold. Consumers held off from splurging in anticipation of potential tax hikes and hit pause on spending to take advantage of Black Friday deals. The milder weather led to a fall in clothing sales. However, clothing should be one of the main beneficiaries of the annual Black Friday event, so it’s hoped that sales will turn around in November.”

Nicholas Hyett, investment manager at Wealth Club, commented: “The combination of a bleak Budget [ahead] and Black Friday discounts meant consumers reined in spending in October. That should come as no surprise. The government’s ‘will-they, won’t-they’ approach to tax rises is a surefire way to obliterate consumer confidence.”

In fact, GfK’s monthly consumer confidence report out on the same day as the sales figures underlined that point with a fall showing that consumers clearly aren’t happy.

Sagar Shah, associate partner at McKinsey, pointed out that “the golden quarter got off to a sluggish start” but that “retailers still have an opportunity to capture more of the winter spend with personalised and timely Black Friday deals. Brands looking to tackle ad fatigue are turning to non-classical formats, to grab consumer attention, according to our European State of Marketing research. CMOs are planning to expand the immersive experiences they offer (+29 points), publish anti-advertising formats (+22), and offer shoppable content (+17) to drive sales.”   

But there was clearly strength in some areas as Deann Evans, Shopify MD EMEA, said the company noted “consumers turning their attention to winter activities. According to our Shopify data, sales of ski and snowboard goggles rose by 131%, while winter wardrobe sales grew too, with cardigans up almost 21% month-on-month”.