UK retail sales volumes are estimated to have risen by 1% month-on-month in February 2025, the Office for National Statistics said Friday.
Reuters
That was a surprise (but a pleasant one) and came after they’d risen 1.4% in January, although that was revised down from a rise of 1.7% in its last bulletin so the February figures aren’t yet set in stone.
Even more encouraging, non-food store sales volumes “grew strongly” in February, with rises across all four store type sub-sectors (department, other non-food, clothing, and household goods stores), while supermarket sales volumes fell back following a strong rise in January.
More broadly, sales volumes rose by 0.3% in the three months to February 2025, compared with the three months to November 2024, and by 2% when compared with the three months to February 2024.
Looking more closely at non-food stores, they rose by 3.1% over the month. This put their monthly sales volumes at their highest level since March 2022. Household goods stores rose by 6.8%, their largest monthly rise since April 2021, with hardware stores having the largest upward contribution.
Within other non-food stores, watches and jewellery stores grew strongly over the month. Retailers in this industry reported increased demand for gold because of wider economic uncertainty.
Clothing stores also rose in February 2025, but didn’t fully recover from their 2.7% fall in January 2025. Increased discounting and falling clothing prices may have contributed to the increase in sales volumes.
Meanwhile, online sales (by value rather than volume) rose by 3.3% over the month and by 3.9% year on year. However, they fell by 3.1% when comparing the three months to February 2025 with the three months to November 2024.
Expert views
What did analysts and insiders think of the numbers? Jacqueline Windsor, head of retail at PwC UK, said the figures continued the bounceback seen in January and highlighted how fashion in particular responded to the widespread discounting reported by ONS in its inflation figures earlier in the week.
She also noted how online sales penetration increased to 26.5%, underscoring the slow and steady trend toward e-shopping that was boosted by store closures during the pandemic but then had looked at risk at some points after the pandemic.
Oliver Vernon-Harcourt, head of retail at Deloitte, added: “A second consecutive month of retail sales growth, particularly the better-than-expected results for February, should be reassuring for many retailers. Despite the cold weather, consumers still looked to upgrade their wardrobes… There are still headwinds for both consumers and retailers. However, spring is well and truly around the corner.”
And Jacqui Baker, head of retail at RSM UK and chair of ICAEW’s Retail Group, was upbeat, saying: “Resilient retailers have dusted themselves off after a challenging December and seen incremental growth at the start of the year. Consumer confidence is improving and widespread discounting has tempted consumers to spend.
“Good news for jewellers in February, which had a strong month with a 20% annual jump in sales, which could be linked to a gold rush due to rising inflation and economic uncertainty.
“This week’s Spring Statement didn’t fundamentally change anything for retailers, but it did confirm that disposable incomes look set to continue to increase. If this feeds through into consumer spending, then the upward trend in sales could help to mitigate the imminent post-Budget headwinds that are due to hit in April.”
Meanwhile, from within retail, Shopify’s Deann Evans, the firm’s EMEA MD said that Valentine’s Day shopping “will no doubt have helped to drive this growth, with our data revealing perfume, make-up and houseplants to be among the most popular choices. Interestingly, classic gifts like flowers and chocolates took a backseat this year.There has also been a consumer focus on outdoor spending, perhaps indicative of spring’s arrival and warmer weather. Consumers are clearly keen to shake off the winter blues and get out to enjoy the warmer weather, or at least prepare for it.”
And Jim Rudall, head of EMEA at marketing and email platform, Intuit Mailchimp, made a good point that while February may not be a major shopping month for some categories, it’s a “key month for marketers, bringing the first calendar commerce moment of the year in the form of Valentine’s Day. The industry will therefore be pleased to see encouraging positive sales figures recorded last month.
“If our 2024 data is anything to go by, Valentine’s Day can often set the tone for the month as a whole. Indeed, the first significant uptick in campaigns identified as Valentine’s Day-themed was on 1 February, as marketers started the month in earnest.”
