One of the world’s most popular economists on why AI is ‘undoubtedly going to crash:’ It’s built on ‘digital lettuce’—and the U.S. will be just fine anyway
David McWilliams is shaking off the jet lag on his trip from Ireland to Los Angeles as he opens a Zoom call and logs on with Fortune. The widely read (and listened to) economist, with hundreds of thousands of followers on X and an economics podcast with claims to be Europe’s most popular, McWilliams is also, frankly, a very nice and affable man. He regales Fortune with tales of his old adventures in New York City in the late 1980s, when he spent a summer working at the Red Lion Inn on Bleecker Street, a job he got from “an uncle of a friend of mine.”
A Dubliner, McWilliams landed in the U.S. just 24 hours before talking to Fortune, as he was starting on a nationwide tour for the release of his History of Money, a widely acclaimed, international bestseller released in Europe in 2024. (In a blurb, Bono called it a “swashbuckling epic of grand sweeps and tight close-ups.”) McWilliams told Fortune he already sensed something different about America: “you kind of feel the boominess of the place, right?” He related his astonishment at getting in an Uber and being bombarded with a driver’s speculative initiatives. “Within two minutes, he was talking about the stock market, Bitcoin, AI, Nvidia, the whole thing. And I’m, like, driving down Sunset Boulevard with this guy, right?”
McWilliams added you wouldn’t see such a thing in Ireland, and “the way in which finance permeates the society” in the U.S. is “very, very different” from Europe. “The universality of money in the United States is something that Europeans find fascinating,” he said, noting it was the same way going all the way back to the 1840s and the travel writings of the Frenchman Alexis de Tocqueville. When do Tocqueville arrived in America, McWilliams said, “his whole idea was like, ‘My god, these people are obsessed with money.’ Europeans were obsessed with other stuff, you know, hierarchy.”
And that is how McWilliams, one of the world’s most closely followed popular economists, said matter-of-factly that America’s “boominess,” led by its piling into the artificial intelligence (AI) trade, is “undoubtedly going to crash.” Not only is it the case “AI doesn’t create any jobs,” he noted, but the key investments driving the boom are rapidly perishable. The massive investment in graphics processing units (GPUs) is problematic, McWilliams said, because it’s “digital lettuce,” prone to wilting before too long. “You’re investing in something that is a perishable good.”
“Technological change suggests that if you buy a GPU today, the chip is going to be outdated next year,” McWilliams explained, adding AI companies are “investing huge amounts of money in lettuce, which is going to go off now,” he said, referring to his mother’s expression for when a head of lettuce, well; went off.
McWilliams was wading into a debate here that long-time markets watcher Ed Yardeni calls “the useful life debate,” and that famous Big Short investor Michael Burry claims is the tip of a giant iceberg threatening the whole market. Burry, in particular, has noted the lengthening of depreciation schedules as suspicious, with big tech not marking to market on their unprofitable investments in McWilliams’ “digital lettuce.” Ultimately, Yardeni wrote on November 17, he does not believe this digital lettuce is due to wilt as rapidly as Burry and McWilliams say: “Data Centers existed before AI caught on in late 2022, when ChatGPT was first introduced. During 2021, there were as many as 4,000 of them in the US as a result of the rapidly increasing demand for cloud computing. Many are still operating with their original chips.” (McWilliams’ interview with Fortune took place before Nvidia disclosed its latest quarterly earnings, which seemed to assuage market fears about an imminent bubble bursting.)
Still, McWilliams told Fortune that even in the event of a crash, he isn’t too worried about the U.S. as the innovation center of the world. A big reason why has to do with his Uber driver in Los Angeles. And it’s a key part of why America is such a key player in the history of money.
The iconoclast society and the secret of innovation
McWilliams has no time for most economics texts, describing them as just too boring for the general public. He said he’s “always thought that the key to understanding economics is to grab economics away from second-rate mathematicians and put it back into the realm of storytelling.” He believes humans are “hardwired to tell stories, we are not hardwired to explain the world through mathematics.” And defining money as a technology, like fire, that humans invented long ago and have shaped and reshaped through millennia, was the spark for his new book.
He describes how anthropologists and biologists refer to humans as a “pyrophytic species,” which adapted to and was constantly adapting along with the technology known as fire. Money was invented to function the same way, he believes, and that’s why he expressed confidence in America coming through whatever crash lurks ahead. He sees the U.S. as an “iconoclast society” at heart, driven by its chaotic—but ultimately innovative—nature.
McWilliams explained he sees Europe as a society run like an “insurance policy,” designed to mitigate risk, whereas the U.S. is defined by embracing it. He said he sees the innovation that produces something like the AI boom is a feature, almost a byproduct of this attitude. “Acceptance of risk is why the U.S. is much more innovative than Europe,” he said, arguing “this innovative spirit is rooted in American history, going back to Alexander Hamilton, who established a great banking system and currency, allowing the revolutionary economy to borrow in its own paper within four or five years.”
McWilliams said the U.S. seems to understand innovation is “proximate”—the combination of small innovations, holding up his smartphone to the camera and noting it’s a proximate product, combining a phone, computer, camera and telephone, “which Europeans would never have conceived of.” He used the metaphor of a hammer and a nail, saying a nail is not very useful unless it’s used in combination with a hammer.
In Europe, on the other hand, “the whole idea is you mitigate risk all the time, right? You go to public health, you go to public schools, you get a job, can’t get fired, all that sort of stuff.” McWilliams added risk for Europeans “is something that is taken by weirdos in the United States,” adding risk is “the defining psychological state of the American.”
Better marketing for creative destruction
McWilliams said a big reason his book has been translated into so many languages (21 of them, to be exact) is to get across the idea the legendary Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter—even though he was a “bizarre” character—”had the right idea, that basically, the economy is a large evolutionary mechanism, and the forces of evolution are the forces that propel innovation, and the forces of innovation are the forces that propel society and wealth creation.” When it’s pointed out to him that Schumpeter’s famous phrase, “creative destruction,” is a bit of a difficult sell, McWilliams agreed: “he needed a better marketing department, but his ideas were right.” (The Nobel Committee, based in Norway offered a tacit endorsement of Schumpeter in 2025, awarding the economics prizes to several economists who further unpacked the concept of “creative destruction.”)
Returning to the subject of a potential AI bubble popping in the U.S., McWilliams said he’s not concerned about AI companies growing “too big to fail,” a concern after recent remarks from OpenAI executives. The only real threat to the broader economy, according to McWilliams, would be if the AI industry successfully convinces the political administration chips are “strategic assets” or a matter of “national security”—linking them to the military industrial complex.
McWilliams ruled this out due to political sentiment. He suggested if President Donald Trump were to run again, his highly evolved “populist instincts” would recognize that being “against Silicon Valley is an absolute winner” electorally.
“One thing I’ve understood about America,” McWilliams added, is they by and large “don’t hate rich people … it’s the professional class they can’t stand.” The rich aren’t something to be hated in America, he said, because of the cultural attitude toward money: “Money is a great leveler.”
Today, we meet James Eder, the 42-year-old cofounder of Student Beans (a discount coupon company targeting the college crowd), who is now a work-life coach splitting his time between London and the French Alps, and author of The Collision Code.
Eder was inspired to build Student Beans in 2005 after organising his university’s summer ball—a party for over 600 students where he was responsible for sponsorship. Seeing how much brands wanted access to students—and how much students loved a deal—sparked the idea.
“My calls to big brands led to me asking for samples and raffle prizes,” Eder recalls to Fortune. “Soon, my student hall bedroom was filled with condoms from Durex, Jelly Belly Jelly Beans, Coffee from Starbucks, Pot Noodles and Lush soaps that made it fragrant for months after.”
At the same time, Eder was working as a brand manager for Yell, where he says he’d already worked with more than 30 brands. A business plan assignment in his degree became the perfect place to shape the concept.
So after graduating, he and his older brother—who worked at an investment bank and had his own side hustle, selling titanium power on Ebay—bootstrapped what became one of the U.K.’s defining student platforms, with a £3,000 loan.
Over 15,000 students signed up to get exclusive discount vouchers from over 200 local businesses in its first year. By year three, Student Beans had 150,000 users. And today? It’s rebranded as Pion, works with over 3,500 brands from Gymshark to Uber, with over 5 million customers in more than 100 countries.
While Eder still holds a 35% stake in the £30-million-a-year turnover company, he walked away from day-to-day operations 10 years ago to pursue another idea: A location-based rival to LinkedIn called Causr, where you’d be able to see professionals nearby and connect.
But despite raising £500,000 and attracting 3,000 users, Eder’s second startup collapsed. A heart condition diagnosis forced him to rethink everything.
Having a defibrillator implanted in his chest quietly reshaped how he approaches purpose, work, and the limited resource none of us get back: time.
Today, Eder spends up to half the year in Méribel. He skis most mornings, and is fresh off the launch of The Collision Code—his book, which hit No. 1 on Amazon’s “Most Gifted” list and has already raised more than £8,500 for heart-health charities.
Yet even with the mountain air and flexible schedule, he says the real “good life” is less about escape, and more about learning how to design a life you don’t need to run away from.
The finances
What’s been your best-ever investment?
The best investment I ever made was £400 on a three-day personal development programme called The Landmark Forum in 2009. A friend invited me to an introductory evening. I was sceptical, but I also knew I had nothing to lose. At the very least, I thought it would be three days of reflection, learning about myself and meeting new people.
But it helped me understand how I operate, why I behave the way I do and which beliefs were holding me back. It shifted how I showed up for myself and for others. It gave me the confidence to speak up, build meaningful relationships and say yes to opportunities that scared me. Everything I have done since, from founding companies to writing my book The Collision Code, traces back to the moment I decided to invest in myself.
Once I became a qualified coach, these stepping stones enabled me to design a life that means I live in the French Alps up to six months of the year, enjoying the mountain air and skiing whilst balancing my clients and health.
And the worst?
My second startup, Causr. I raised £150,000, registered for VAT (value added tax) and qualified for R&D tax credits, which brought the total investment closer to £200,000. I also invested three years of my life. We built an app for both Apple and Android and attracted around 3,000 users, but engagement was almost non-existent.
I thought with the success behind me, having built Student Beans, I was so confident the world needed this and I could make this work. But I made the mistake of moving too fast. The moment the funding landed, I felt pressure to spend it and scale immediately. If I could go back, I would have continued testing, validating and learning with a much smaller audience before committing to a full build.
What are your living arrangements like?
I’m fortunate to spend time in between London, Kentish Town, in an old converted school with floor-to-ceiling windows, and a roof terrace that gets the sun for most of the day. I moved there when we relocated the Student Beans offices to Kentish Town and when I was there day-to-day it was just a ten-minute walking commute.
For almost half the rest of the year I’ve chosen to live in the French Alps in a beautiful studio apartment just above Meribel Centre in one of the best and largest ski areas of the world, The Three Valleys. I first fell in love with the mountains, skiing in the same area at around four or five. When I was diagnosed with my heart condition, it was a dream to be able to go back there and make this happen. I feel like I’ve got the perfect balance of the buzz of London and having everything on my doorstep, then mountain escape.
What’s in your wallet?
I never carry any cash. I have two default bank cards I use: The Virgin Atlantic Credit card which affords me to travel regularly in premium and upperclass, or my Revolut, which offers such convenience for different currencies whilst travelling and a brilliant interface.
Do you invest in shares?
I used an advisor for a number of years, making sure I benefited from the ISA tax-free allowances (similar to a Roth IRA in the U.S.). The most fantastic thing I did was invest in a money coach. For the first time, I understood how it works, what a bull and bear market is, what a tracker fund is … I now manage my funds and use Vanguard and Interactive Investor to do the work. I also invest in premium bonds, which are also tax-free investments.
What personal finance advice would you give your 20-year-old self?
I would emphasise the importance of monthly contributions, however small and maximising the tax-free ISA allowances as much as possible.
What’s the one subscription you can’t live without?
My EasyJet Plus subscription. Due to most of my European travel being short-haul with the majority served by EasyJet, it’s a useful perk—priority security, speedy boarding, seat selection and extra handheld luggage.
What’s your most ridiculous ongoing expense?
I don’t have ridiculous ongoing expenses, but I make up for it with travel. Most of my outgoings are on destination travel and related expenses. My annual ski pass for those who don’t ski might be questionable.
Courtesy of James Eder
The Necessities
How do you get your daily coffee fix?
I don’t drink coffee. I never got into it. My weakness is hot chocolate with cream, which I usually drink daily during the winter in the Alps, and it ranges in price from €5 to €10—so a habit of up to €40 a week.
What about eating on the go?
My go-to when I’m in the U.K. is PizzaExpress and Wagamama, reasonably priced and quick eats. I usually eat out three to four times a week. If I’m in town and in between meetings a Pret-A-Manger is a frequent destination. For meetings, I will often be at The Ivy, The Granary Square Brasserie in Kings Cross, The Wolseley or The Delaunay. Novikov or Sketch are also favourites.
Where do you buy groceries?
When I’m in London, I’ll grab food on the way home from being out—a stir fry, or salmon. In France, I do a weekly shop from Carrefour and feel like I have a better balanced diet as I have more time to spend planning and in the kitchen. It’s just a different way of living.
What’s a typical work outfit for you?
I’m usually in jeans from Citizens of Humanity with a shirt and a tailored jacket, polished but relaxed. Day-to-day, I’ve been leaning more casual and think Uniqlo is great for quality basics. I budget up to £1,000 a year on clothes and focus on things I’ll wear again and again.
The Treats
Are you the proud owner of any tech gadgets?
My Apple Watch has been a game-changer. I originally got it with my Vitality Health Care insurance plan and it has helped me identify when I had a change in heart rhythm as well as give me more confidence in exercising.
The one gadget that I think would really improve the quality of my life is a kitchen robot. Of course, there are private chefs, but the idea of having something in my kitchen that can cook with anything is wild.
How do you unwind from the top job?
What’s your take on work-life balance at the top?
In the early days of Student Beans, I was definitely working for over 12 hours a day and felt like I was always on. That was the same at Causr. Since I’m now a coach and author, work ebbs and flows.
Some days I’m out first thing for a breakfast meeting, working through the day, having an interview, doing a photo shoot, a lunch appointment, writing content, speaking at an event, recording a podcast and out for dinner. My take on work-life balance is to reframe it as being about life and whether you’re enjoying it or not.
How do you treat yourself when you get a promotion?
Because I have always worked for myself, promotions were never my milestone. Instead, I celebrated big moments like signing a major client, or raising investment. Those were the times I treated myself to something special. I love the art in my flat and choosing pieces that connect to a memory makes them even more meaningful. One of my favourites is an original limited edition Paul Kenton print of London and the Thames.
How many days annual leave do you take a year?
Whenever I am in France, it naturally feels like a holiday even though I am working. On top of that, I actively take around three months each year to travel and explore.
Take us on holiday with you, where did you go this year?
When I go on the heart transplant list, I’ll need to be within four hours of Cambridge and the transplant hospital at all times, so it’s made me focus on making the most of travelling.
I started 2025 in France, in March, visiting Tignes, another ski resort where I was a social host on European Snow Pride, a week-long gay festival. In April, I went to Gran Canaria for a few days. From there, I flew to Geneva and visited Meribel to get the keys to my new apartment, followed by a few days in Paris for my birthday. I spent a couple of weeks in Sardinia, including a sailing trip on a catamaran around Sardinia and Corsica. I then went to Wales for The Do Lectures, a few days of glamping with a community of over a hundred inspiring people.
AI lab GoogleDeepMind announced a major new partnership with the U.K. government Wednesday, pledging to accelerate breakthroughs in materials science and clean energy, including nuclear fusion, as well as conducting joint research on the societal impacts of AI and on ways to make AI decision-making more interpretable and safer.
As part of the partnership, Google DeepMind said it would open its first automated research laboratory in the U.K. in 2026. That lab will focus on discovering advanced materials including superconductors that can carry electricity with zero resistance. The facility will be fully integrated with Google’s Gemini AI models. Gemini will serve as a kind of scientific brain for the lab, which will also use robotics to synthesize and characterize hundreds of materials per day, significantly accelerating the timeline for transformative discoveries.
The company will also work with the U.K. government and other U.K.-based scientists on trying to make breakthroughs in nuclear fusion, potentially paving the way for cheaper, cleaner energy. Fusion reactions should produce abundant power while producing little to no nuclear waste, but such reactions have proved to be very difficult to sustain or scale up.
Additionally, Google DeepMind is expanding its research alliance with the government-run U.K. AI Security Institute to explore methods for discovering how large language models and other complex neural network-based AI models arrive at decisions. The partnership will also involve joint research into the societal impacts of AI, such as the effect AI deployment is likely to have on the labor market and the impact increased use of AI chatbots may have on mental health.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said in a statement that the partnership would “make sure we harness developments in AI for public good so that everyone feels the benefits.”
“That means using AI to tackle everyday challenges like cutting energy bills thanks to cheaper, greener energy and making our public services more efficient so that taxpayers’ money is spent on what matters most to people,” Starmer said.
Google DeepMind cofounder and CEO Demis Hassabis said in a statement that AI has “incredible potential to drive a new era of scientific discovery and improve everyday life.”
As part of the partnership, British scientists will receive priority access to Google DeepMind’s advanced AI tools, including AlphaGenome for DNA sequencing; AlphaEvolve for designing algorithms; DeepMind’s WeatherNext weather forecasting models; and its new AI co-scientist, a multi-agent system that acts as a virtual research collaborator.
DeepMind was founded in London in 2010 and is still headquartered there; it was acquired by Google in 2014.
Gemini’s U.K. footprint expands
The collaboration also includes potential development of AI systems for education and government services. Google DeepMind will explore creating a version of Gemini tailored to England’s national curriculum to help teachers reduce administrative workloads. A pilot program in Northern Ireland showed that Gemini helped save teachers an average of 10 hours per week, according to the U.K. government.
For public services, the U.K. government’s AI Incubator team is trialing Extract, a Gemini-powered tool that converts old planning documents into digital data in 40 seconds, compared to the current two-hour process.
The expanded research partnership with the U.K. AI Security Institute will focus on three areas, the government and DeepMind said: developing techniques to monitor AI systems’ so-called “chain of thought”—the reasoning steps an AI model takes to arrive at an answer; studying the social and emotional impacts of AI systems; and exploring how AI will affect employment.
U.K. AISI currently tests the safety of frontier AI models, including those from Google DeepMind and a number of other AI labs, under voluntary agreements. But the new research collaboration could potentially raise concerns about whether the U.K. AISI will remain objective in its testing of its now-partner’s models.
In response to a question on this from Fortune, William Isaac, principal scientist and director of responsibility at Google DeepMind, did not directly address the issue of how the partnership might affect the U.K. AISI’s objectivity. But he said the new research agreement puts in place “a separate kind of relationship from other points of interaction.” He also said the new partnership was focused on “question on the horizon” rather than present models, and that the researchers would publish the results of their work for anyone to review.
Isaac said there is no financial or commercial exchange as part of the research partnership, with both sides contributing people and research resources.
“We’re excited to announce that we’re going to be deepening our partnership with the U.K. AISI to really focus on exploring, really the frontier research questions that we believe are going to be important for ensuring that we have safe and responsible development,” he said.
He said the partnership will produce publicly accessible research focused on foundational questions—such as how AI impacts jobs or how talking to chatbots effects mental health—rather than policy-specific recommendations, though the findings could influence how businesses and policymakers think about AI and how to regulate it.
“We want the research to be meaningful and provide insights,” Isaac said.
Isaac described the U.K. AISI as “the crown jewel of all of the safety institutes” globally and said deepening the partnership “sends a really strong signal” about the importance of engaging responsibly as AI systems become more widely adopted.
The partnership also includes expanded collaboration on AI-enhanced approaches to cybersecurity. This will include the U.K. government exploring the sue of tools like Big Sleep, an AI agent developed by Google that autonomously hunts for previously unknown “Zero Day” cybersecurity exploits, and CodeMender, another AI agent that can search for and then automatically patch security vulnerabilities in open source software.
British Technology Secretary Liz Kendall is visiting San Francisco this week to further the U.K.-U.S. Tech Prosperity Deal, which was agreed to during U.S. President Trump’s state visit to the U.K. in September. In November alone, the British government said the pact helped secure more than $32.4 billion of private investment committed to the U.K tech sector.
The Google-U.K. partnership builds on a £5 billion ($6.7 billion) investment commitment from Google made earlier this year to support U.K. AI infrastructure and research, and to help modernize government IT systems.
The British government also said collaboration supports its AI Opportunities Action Plan and its £137 million AI for Science Strategy, which aims to position the UK as a global leader in AI-driven research.
Democrat Eric Gisler claimed an upset victory Tuesday in a special election in a historically Republican Georgia state House district.
Gisler said he was the winner of the contest, in which he was leading Republican Mack “Dutch” Guest by about 200 votes out of more than 11,000 in final unofficial returns.
Robert Sinners, a spokesperson with the secretary of state’s office, said there could be a few provisional ballots left before the tally is finalized.
“I think we had the right message for the time,” Gisler told The Associated Press in a phone interview. He credited his win to Democratic enthusiasm but also said some Republicans were looking for a change.
“A lot of what I would call traditional conservatives held their nose and voted Republican last year on the promise of low prices and whatever else they were selling,” Gisler said. “But they hadn’t received that.”
Guest did not immediately respond to a text message seeking comment late Tuesday.
Democrats have seen a number of electoral successes in 2025 as the party’s voters have been eager to express dissatisfaction with Republican President Donald Trump.
In Georgia in November, they romped to two blowouts in statewide special elections for the Public Service Commission, unseating two incumbent Republicans in campaigns driven by discontent over rising electricity costs.
Nationwide, Democrats won governor’s races by broad margins in Virginia and New Jersey. On Tuesday a Democrat defeated a Trump-endorsed Republican in the officially nonpartisan race for Miami mayor, becoming the first from his party to win the post in nearly 30 years.
Democrats have also performed strongly in some races they lost, such as a Tennessee U.S. House race last week and a Georgia state Senate race in September.
Republicans remain firmly in control of the Georgia House, but their majority is likely fall to 99-81 when lawmakers return in January. Also Tuesday, voters in a second, heavily Republican district in Atlanta’s northwest suburbs sent Republican Bill Fincher and Democrat Scott Sanders to a Jan. 6 runoff to fill a vacancy created when Rep. Mandi Ballinger died.
The GOP majority is down from 119 Republicans in 2015. It would be the first time the GOP holds fewer than 100 seats in the lower chamber since 2005, when they won control for the first time since Reconstruction.
The race between Gisler and Guest in House District 121 in the Athens area northeast of Atlanta was held to replace Republican Marcus Wiedower, who was in the seat since 2018 but resigned in the middle of this term to focus on business interests.
Most of the district is in Oconee County, a Republican suburb of Athens, reaching into heavily Democratic Athens-Clarke County. Republicans gerrymandered Athens-Clarke to include one strongly Democratic district, parceling out the rest of the county into three seats intended to be Republican.
Gisler ran against Wiedower in 2024, losing 61% to 39%. This year was Guest’s first time running for office.
A Democrat briefly won control of the district in a 2017 special election but lost to Wiedower in 2018.
Gisler, a 49-year-old Watkinsville resident, works for an insurance technology company and owns a gourmet olive oil store. He campaigned on improving health care, increasing affordability and reinvesting Georgia’s surplus funds
Guest is the president of a trucking company and touted his community ties, promising to improve public safety and cut taxes. He was endorsed by Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, an Athens native, and raised far more in campaign contributions than Gisler.